Yea, as much as I like statistical breakdowns, I would really appreciate a play-by-play breakdown of what is happening and why. That's too big a task to ask of anyone here since it would require watching too many hours of tape, but why aren't some of the blogs, especially the Rox-focused ones, spending some time with this? HMMM has done an amazing job of highlighting plays the Rockets use frequently - just need someone to pick that up and take it a bit further by looking specifically throughout this season to see what works and what hasn't and connecting the dots. So... basically, I'm just asking for a glimpse into a film session (I presume) at Rox practices... or a long-form version of a Coach Nick breakdown. :grin:
Thanks for the stats, it's very interesting, now how to interpret it. I'm wondering if there are any correlations between defensive rebounding with how much we're running. IMHO, there are two things that must happen before can effectively run. Get a defensive stop Rebound the ball defensive Effective outlet pass I agree that we need to fast break more, but is this the result of us not being able to transition rather than not wanting to run? In other words, even if we had the energy to run, not having those 3 essentially means we cannot run... therefore the transition plays would naturally go down.
There can be different interpretations of the correlation between the increase of ISO play and losing: 1. We were losing because of more ISO plays or 2. We were getting blown out early, so Harden decided to take over and carry the team on his back later in the game, hence more ISO plays out of frustration/desperation. The end result obviously isn't pretty. But you can't fault his will if this is indeed the case. I don't know about others. But I would definitely like to see my franchise player has the will to take over the game when needed. It would be interesting to know which one is the case here. But regardless, OP is the kind of Lin fans I can appreciate and respect. Very insightful and reasonable. Repped.
The main thing is the decline of transition offense. I don't think it's the tired legs as much as other teams having figured us out. They play better transition defense and our half court offense is exposed.
This. I've said all along that Harden was going to struggle when teams started taking away his game and forcing him to shoot more mid-range shots which he is weak at. Clog the paint in the half-court by doubling off our weak PF or Center, and Lin/Harden have no room to go anywhere near the basket. Even now you will notice that in the half court Harden and Lin never make it to the front of the rim but are forced to go to side out side the paint. They are putting a lot more bigs in their and the guards are funneling them into walls or shot blockers. And teams are making sure to get back on Lin & Harden in transition. At times, Lin was being picked up by 3 defenders to force him to pick up his dribble. Take away Lin's dribble and he like any other pg is pretty much finished. And Lin picks up his dribble readily. Harden is trying to go Kobe Bryant which simply doesn't work. He's not Kobe. Coach needs to get Lin to be more aggressive, and to cut Harden's minutes a bit and keep encouraging him to pass despite his passes being often off the mark. Sometimes Harden tries to take over and he's too tired and he's flat especially at the end of games. And the reality is this team can only go so far with the front court we have. Parsons is a turnover machine when he dribbles. He should not be dribbling in traffic. Honestly- the NBA has adjusted, they have found out how to take away our transition game and to contain Lin/Harden. We are going to struggle until we counter or get some players to help.
In simple terms we created the tempo, and hit threes during the winning streak. We are now; not hitting those shots, and not getting the fast tempo set that we like. Turnovers have been a killer in the third qtr. too.
After reviewing some games during win streak as well as losing streak, its blatantly obvious what has changed. It's the confidence. Confidence changes everything. When confidence is low, it changes players from being too passive (i.e. Lin) to being too agressive (i.e. Harden). I noticed that the coaches have been trying to set the same plays as during the winning streak, but because of confidence our players are not executing. The only way this team can get back to the winning formula is to have some wins under there belt. Now the coaches have to be aware of this, and how the players confidence have changed there play. They have to adjust i.e. Giving less usage to Harden since he is trying too hard to put the whole team in his back, getting Lin into the offense more by encouraging him to be aggressive and set some plays. These 2 are so critical in Houstons success, because if they dont play well, we dont win. And lately, Harden getting too many TO's and missed shots because he is trying to do too much. Lin is running scared and passing the ball for the sake of passing. He needs to have the mindset of scoring or agressive passing (even his passing are very passive). Coaches need to realise this, otherwise this confidence can have a long term effect to the team, in regards to trust and chemistry.
I forgot to mention, this low confidence was due to the brutal january schedule with countless b2b games creating tired legs and mental fatigue. Coaches job is to ensure they dont destroy players confidence. I think sitting Lin in the 4th qtr for 2 games in a row is not helping. So is letting Harden dominate the ball even tho he is clearly fatigue and getting sloppy and not playing Douglas in some games. These 3 were catalysts when our team had the confidence. I hope the coaches dont do long term damage to there players.
Actually, this only works because the 4 position is so weak. They're not hitting outside shots, they're not posting up effectively, and they're not cutting efficiently either. It's part of why they play Parsons and Delfino so many minutes. It's easy for a defense to clamp down when it's only Harden, Lin and Parsons as the only consistent offensive threats from the starters. Asik's hands make him a serious liability offensively. Folks can complain about the tough bounce passes to Asik from Harden, Lin and Asik, however against a better defensive team those are the ONLY passes you can make, IE, Keyhole passes. If they tried to pass at chest level to Asik or over the top to Asik in traffic, it would end up as deflected or stolen against long or organized defenses. Asik needs to learn how to catch more of those, or it will always be the same... IE, they'll play the Driving player tight or double up on the driving player and basically say to Asik, "You want to beat us, you'll have to catch a tough pass". A post presence or legitimate stretch 4 would help. Or good catch and go 5 would help. Otherwise the offense right now is 3+1 (Lin, Harden, Parsons and sometimes Delfino) vs 5. And that's easy to guard for any team.
Actually, it's more like 1 + Delfino vs 5. Obviously we have to keep Asik out there or we'd be truly terrible, but we're also not getting anything offensively from the 1 or 4 positions. Parsons has been okay, but is simply another off-ball player who can be easily guarded when there's not much else out there. Lin needs to step up and Motiejunas, despite how bad he'll be defensively, needs to get playing time. Perhaps starting out with small ball with Delfino and Parsons at the 3/4 will create a spark.
The only reason Parsons and Lin are consistent offensive threats is that they have the ability to generate plays for their team mates. Their jump shooting consistency isn't there, but their ability to drive as well as find team mates makes them a threat whether they shoot the ball themselves or not. The same can't be said for Asik or Patterson who rely on other players to generate their looks for them. It's not an accident that opponents will sometimes move to double team Parsons and Lin, but almost never double team Asik or Patterson. Even when they're not putting the bucket in the hole Parsons and Lin still force defenses to adjust.
The causality is the otherway round. Because the defense took away their not so refined attempts to execute the PnRs, they are forced to do more ISOs as a result. Lin has regressed with his dribble and with the feel for the paint. He desperately needs a Parkersque teardrop and take a lesson from Nash about keep his turning radius minimal while dribbling around defenders. They definitely need a PnR bigman like a healthy Amare to be more effective there.
Uh, no. Lin isn't a good enough shooter to translate his driving ability to any sort of consistent production and Parsons is definitely not a playmaker of much worth. Harden is seriously the only capable Rocket on offense, aside from Delfino who is just a lights out shooter this year. You can't play Lin, Parsons, terrible PF of the day, and Asik and expect a good offense. Durant and Westbrook couldn't bootstrap last year's versions of Sefolosha, Ibaka, and Perkins into a respectable offense; it's silly I believe Harden can.
We'll just have to disagree here. When the defense collapses and they pack the paint, that's a defensive adjustment that creates opportunities. And he scores just fine from inside the paint and short range. 60% from the Rim, and 37.8% from 3-9 feet. The same with Parsons. Being an offensive threat isn't purely about scoring, it's also about creating looks for team mates. Though part of that is definitely dependent on the team mate's ability to catch and finish (ala Asik) or simply shoot and finish (ala Patterson, Morris, etc). If you had a solid stretch 4 it would improve the efficiency of Lin and Parsons. And Ibaka's offense was fine last year. 9.1 ppg on 55.6% TS% (higher than Westbrook's). Heck, even Sefolosha had a 58.4% TS% last year despite only having 4.8 ppg. As for Perkins, he's never been an offensive player. I don't think anyone can fix that. I suspect you and I have different definitions of "threat"...
