A hurriCAN, but maybe a hurri-can't? Here's the 10 AM showing: Notice how the 8 am Friday forecast now puts it right ON the Yucatan... F*CK. It's expected even CLOSER to the Yucatan peninsula now. Remember RITA??? Hello, New Orleans again...
Gosh, I hope you're right, but I've seen these things say: "Man, F that Foggen' Cold Front... I don't care... I'm going straight through his *ss...!!!!"
First, this is incredibly impressive. There has NEVER been an eye this small. I mean, 2 nautical miles??? Holy Jeebus! Imagine hurricane hunters flying into an eye only 2 miles wide and circling down against 185mph winds. That is ridiciulous. The central pressure has now just blown away Hurricane Gilbert and this may be the most impressive storm ever seen at any time. There is a very good chance that the most populated areas of central Florida will get out of this with very little impact. This storm is going to make a hard right once it gets into the Yucatan channel as a strong front heads this way. But, southern Florida and Miami are probably in for a pounding. It is highly unlikely this storm will maintain anywhere near this kind of strength after moving further north. It is in an area of very weak sheer, weak steering currents and extremely warm water - the warmest in this part of the world - that is just feeding it right now. As it moves north, it will encounter quite a bit of shear and then the front that interacts with it will beat it up pretty good. Still, we are talking about a big cat 3 or cat 4 when it hits landfall and it certainly should be a cat 4 when it crosses western Cuba. Looking at that satellite image is even freakier than looking at Katrina or Rita and that's saying something.
Is this a hurricane or the biggest tornado in history. A 2-4 nautical mile eye? That's not an eye but a vortex. Wilma is out in the general area where Gilbert reached its peak in strength. Florida shouldn't see 175 mph winds and hopefully it moves ashore in the unpopulated Everlglades National Park. Run for the mainland though if your in Key West.
Yeah, exactly. The waters where Gilbert formed and where Wilma is now are extremely warm and the currents are extremely weak. It makes for a ripe environment for storms.
There are questions about whether or not the turn will be as sharp as they are predicting. Hurricanes this large tend to make their own weather and it could be a little resistant to turning as much as they are predicting. So Cancun better be on guard. What Jeff said about the shear and water temps is correct absolutely no way this thing stays a cat 5 into the Gulf of Mexico. As a matter fact its probably already peaked. Central pressure is up to 892mb.
Whoa GFDL has really shifted westward and northward. It now shows it skirting Cancun and landfalling into the Tampa area. A cat 3+ into Tampa is a worst case scenario with this one. The storm surge into that area can be devastating.
They're now saying that the trough expected to turn this thing north then northeast isn't going to make it so it will pretty much stall down in the Carribean. This could be good news for Florida. NHC conference in a few minutes on CNN.
Well, the number one rule about this hurricane season is that a hurrican will do exactly the opposite of what is said when it first forms, so expect a category five to hit the Texas coast sometime around next week.
Latest discussion. The press conference by Max Mayfield basically went over the extreme uncertainty over the track. The guy basically said that they have no idea which way it will go. Notice the change from one model run to the next. Only about 1700 miles. Doh! WTNT44 KNHC 192106 TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 AGREEMENT AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH HAD BEEN VERY GOOD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED TODAY. THE 06Z RUNS OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS ACCELERATED WILMA RAPIDLY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THREE OF THESE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE GFDL SHOWING AN EXTREME CHANGE...WITH ITS 5-DAY POSITION SHIFTING A MERE 1650 NMI FROM ITS PREVIOUS POSITION IN MAINE TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. THERE IS ALMOST AS MUCH SPREAD IN THE 5-DAY POSITIONS OF THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE YUCATAN TO WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. WHAT THIS ILLUSTRATES IS THE EXTREME SENSITIVITY OF WILMA'S FUTURE TRACK TO ITS INTERACTION WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILMA HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OR SOUTH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THE LEFT-MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE NOW SHOWING WILMA DELAYING OR MISSING THE CONNECTION WITH THE LOW. I HAVE SLOWED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST A LITTLE BIT AT THIS TIME...BUT IF WILMA CONTINUES TO MOVE MORE TO THE LEFT THAN EXPECTED...SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE MADE DOWN THE LINE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY THE TIMING...HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY. THE LATEST PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 892 MB...WITH PEAK 700 MB WINDS OF 152 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 140 KT. AIRCRAFT REPORTS...AS WELL AS MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...INDICATE THAT THE INNER 5-MILE-WIDE EYE OF WILMA IS WEAKENING WITHIN TWO OUTER EYEWALLS... ONE 10 MILES WIDE AND ANOTHER ABOUT 45 MILES ACROSS. IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS MEANS THAT THE PEAK WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE WIND FIELD EXPANDS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE TIME FOR WILMA TO REINTENSITY BEFORE IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN. WITH AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY THAT THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE INTERACTION WITH THE YUCATAN...I HAVE LOWERED THE INTENSITY FORECAST SLIGHTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Not very much of a difference since this morning's forecast, except it's moving NORTH slightly, now looking like it's going straight for Orlando and its outskirts. Bye-bye, Mickey Mouse... nice seeing you twice... Forecast points available with other details: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html (Java Applet, please wait)
Cool little Nasa quicktime movie showing every hurricane this season ~ each day is one second long so it goes by fast. link
All the model guidance has re-algined with a brush of the Yucatan Peninsula and then a sharp right turn towards southern Florida. Still a lot of uncertainty, but the temporary shift in the model runs seems to have just been that - temporary.
That's why Ms. Slammer, our kids and myself have evacuated to Bamaslammer Northern Command (our old home in Northern Georgia which remains on the market) for the next few days. Our house on Indian Rocks Beach in the Tampa Bay area is not the place I'd like to ride out a storm.
Safe move, but it appears that may not be necessary. The newest models actually have Wilma over the mountainous Yucatan Peninsula for 24-48 hours, which will weaken it significantly probably to below a cat. 2 or even to a tropical storm. Obviously, take precautions and be safe just in case.
