They might have done well in his absence and "only" 500 with him. But it's likely that without him in the 100 or so games they don't go 500. If they ended up with even 1 more loss in those games then they don't make the playoffs even with their tremendous run at the end of the year. Furthermore, while they have had players step up to man the cf position well without him, that change by itself doesn't account for the run differential improvement towards the end of the year. He's had a good year and i would suspect that it's likely they wouldn't have made the playoffs without him.
In addition to everything The Cat said in response, everett's D>>> willy's D And i think willy is a very good defender but Everett is light years ahead of everyone in the major leagues. If you've read the fielding bible, there's a good argument to be made that's he's the best defensive player since ozzie smith. That doesn't mean that there isn't a point at which his offensive non-production trumps how valuable he is on defense. But, he gets a little more of a free pass because of just how much better his is on D than anyone in the league.
Agree with a lot of what you're saying. Willy is young enough to improve his game, but looking at comparable players (or the lack thereof) does not bode well for him. And I agree 110% about Anderson. He should be no better than a 5th outfielder in the major leagues. But I don't know if Coors will have a dramatic effect on keeping Taveras' average buoyed. In Pierre's 3 seasons in Colorado, he hit roughly league-average at home for 2 of the seasons. In 00, he hit 0.310 vs. a park-adjusted average of 0.307. Same thing in 02 - 0.289 vs. 0.287. 2001 was the only year where he really out-performed league-average - 0.327 vs. 0.293. When you consider that Coors park-adjusted numbers continue to drop (in 2007, the park-adjusted AVG was 0.281, I'm just not sure that you can count on the boost you once could. For all the talk of how well Matsui played this year, the numbers don't bear it out - he was still well below both park-adjusted OBP & SLG, and finished with an 87 OPS+.
I understand that matsui wasn't good this year. I just meant to say he improved to be merely below average from being #$%@# bad at nyc I realize i'm higher on Taveras than most other people. It's in part attributed to what i feel are his "tools". It also due to what i feel is first impression judgments of a player who was obviously rushed to the major leagues before he was ready. I think his improvements this year are real and will continue. I think they are shown in tremendous improvements every year in his bb/k rates. It's not just Coors, I think you're seeing the growth of a hitter who was rushed to the major, but has made tremendous strides at the plate every year.
A key for Taveras to sustain a high batting average is cutting his K rate. It's fallen from over 16% in 2005 to 15 in 2006 to 13.5% in 2007. A player with Taveras's speed is always going to have a high BABIP, particularly, imo, in a large ballpark. He just needs to be able to put the ball in play when he swings. That leads me to believe his improvements are real and not all park-adjusted.
This is a sport where fluke seasons (roughly 600 ABs) are routine. Look back to my last post in this thread. I'd be much more willing to buy that this is the real Taveras, if there were something tangible to point to to show he's developed as a hitter. I can't find it. He has approximately the same walk rate. He has the same gap power. He's hitting for a comparable percentage of line drives. The only difference is that his BABIP has suddenly rocketed up to an incredibly high level, and his average has increased accordingly. Given that combined with a sample size of a season or less, and you have a profile that screams fluke. High? Absolutely. But .370 is pretty ridiculous. I don't think it's reasonable to expect that every season.
Don't get me wrong; I completely recognize that Biggio hitting lead-off hurt this team a lot. Where we disagree is that I don't see it as a huge problem, because I think it can be handled from within. I still think Burke is likely to produce numbers comparable to 2006 (if not slightly below), in which case he's a perfectly fine lead-off option. If not, go the aggressive route (which they've done for so many years now) and put Pence there. I agree that lead-off hitting was a problem, but to me it's one that goes away now that the Biggio chase is over and done with. I also agree that team defense was certainly a huge problem... but I thought that range problems for the infield were much more detrimental to our success than the outfield. I'm hoping Everett is able to come back at full strength, and perhaps that combined with Burke or Loretta at second will ease some of that burden. (That said, if neither makes any improvement at the plate, it won't last.)
Sure, but he's BABIP for the 3 season prior to this year (04-06) was .358. So .370 actually isn't a huge jump over what he's done for the last three years. 333 26% 408 106 489 39 348 136 441 35 332 116 1263
Look at his BB/K rates, particularly his K rate. That's a huge tangible improvement. And as i stated in my previous post his BABIP this year is only .012 higher than the average of his previous three years.
His BB/K rate have improved every year he has been in the majors. From a 1/4 rate in 2005 to a 2/5 rate this year. that's a significant improvement, which in a young hitter tells me he is improving. Some of that has come from an increased walk rate from 3.9 in 05 to 5.2 in 07 (btw his AA walk rate was 8.2% so he certainly capable of exercising some discipline), but most of it has come from a huge cut is his K rate. If nothing else a drop is his K rate should lead to a high sustained batting average.
It seems only fair to limit the BABIP analysis to his time in the majors, where he's actually going against elite pitching and defenders. In that case: 2006 BABIP: .330 2007 BABIP: .345 That's an average of about .337, which is the difference in the .280-.290 hitter he's been for most of his career and the outlying .320 hitter he was this season.
okay that's fair, but from the data I have it appears that that his babip should in an average year be higher than the major league average. Maybe not .370 high, but very high none the less. do you agree that his BB/K year rates qualifies as evidence of improvement at the plate?
To an extent, yes. While his walk rate is remaining level, there is evidence that he's becoming a slightly better contact hitter. That should make him better at situational hitting (one of his huge weaknesses in Houston), and combined with Coors Field, it should aid his slugging, and that's reflected a bit this season. What does all that mean? I do think he'll be a slightly better hitter over the course of his career in Colorado than he was in 2005 and 2006 with the Astros. However, I don't think there's nearly enough evidence to suggest that a .360 OBP and mid .700s OPS can be expected on a regular basis. My guess would be around the midpoint between that and his Houston numbers.
I actually subtracted a few points for that . For me it was more the .327 batting average, 65 stolen bases, 221 hits and the 1.000 fielding percentage.
Alright. At age 30, Juan Pierre has as many 200 hit seasons as Tony Gwynn had for his whole career. That would be four.
Let's see. How many times have the Astros been in the World Series? And what player led the team in at-bats with 592 and hits with 172?
I think you should take a look at this analysis of Juan Pierre, from the fans that watch him on a regular basis. http://mikesciosciastragicillness.com/2007/10/14/msticoms-2007-in-review-center-field/
LOL. What a stud! Taking over the World Series like some of you said! http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_y...?slug=ap-worldserieslineups&prov=ap&type=lgns
If Willy T is going to take over game 3 of the World Series, he'll have to do it coming off the bench, since Clint Hurdle decided Cory Sullivan should start the game in CF. Game 3 Box
