It is debatable as to whether or not Scott is better than Taveras. Add Willy's SB to the OPS and the gap lessens significantly between Willy and Scott. Scott has a big adv. in HR and RBI, while Willy has advantages in runs and BA. If Willy batted in an RBI spot instead of following the 2 worst hitters on the team, it is quite conceivable that the .65 difference in BA for Willy would lead to more RBI. The thing about all of these stats are, Scott has played 155 games last season while Willy only played 97. I'm going to say that in 155 games Willy would have 40 RBI. In essence, Willy averages .412 RBI per game and Scott averages .413 RBI/gm. Again, without counting the difference in batting spots. Very close. Additionally, Taveras would have had 53 SB in 155 games.
actually I DID account for the dif. in batting order, my RBI numbers are wrong but I can't edit my post but they show similar trends
Maybe the silliest statistical analysis I've ever read. Scott may have played more games, but he got fewer ABs than Taveras. And further, Taveras got 24 RBI in his 97 games - .247 RBI per game. Compared to Scott's 64 (in fewer ABs). They are not anywhere close to equal as RBI men. Look at 2006, when Taveras drove in 30 runs in almost 600 ABs. The honest truth is that Willy T is awesome when the situation calls for a bunt hit. But if you need someone to drive the ball to get a man in from 3rd, or need an extra base hit, he's usually inadequate for the job.
Luke Scott is a much better player than Willy T, even when you account for speed & defense. OBP Coors Field Park-Adjusted OBP - 0.351 Willy T's OBP - 0.367 Willy T's OBP+ - 105 Minute Maid Park-Adjusted OBP - 0.345 Scott's OBP - 0.351 Scott's OBP+ - 101 Obviously, this category belongs to Willy T. SLG Coors Field Park-Adjusted SLG - 0.449 Willy T's SLG - 0.382 Willy T's SLG+ - 85 Minute Maid Park-Adjusted OBP - 0.440 Scott's SLG - 0.504 Scott's SLG+ - 115 This category belongs to Scott in a big way. I heard the argument that Willy's primary job is to post a high OBP, not a high SLG, and I think that's a valid argument. However, when you slug so poorly, you have to have a bigger advantage in other categories. Being 10% better than average in OBP is not good enough when you are 15% worse than average in SLG. Scott's advantage in SLG dwarfs Willy T's advantage in OBP. Also, you have to figure that this was a career year for Willy. Nothing in his history indicates that he'll hit 0.320 again. On the flipside, this can probably be considered a down year for Scott, and still he still put up similar or better numbers than Willy did. Taveras is not a 0.320 hitter, and Scott is not a 0.255 hitter. Projecting them both to regress to their mean stats gives Scott a huge advantage. On the surface, you can argue that their 2007 seasons were comparable, especially when you figure in Willy's 33 SB @ an almost 80% success rate. But point-forward, I would bet big on Luke Scott having a better career.
And if you're projecting Willy to be Juan Pierre, that is not a good thing. Pierre is one of the most overrated and overpaid players in the league. Yes, he hits 0.300 and collects 200 hits every year and steals some bases, but he is a well below-average player.
Actually, this season he hit about .290. He has not finished a season at .300 or above for a few years. There is a reason Pierre is becoming a journeyman (4 clubs in 7 years). It is because at every stop, the club decides they have a better option than Pierre, and they let him go.
He's played 162 games the past 5 years and just signed a 5-yr, $45MM contract - that doesn't really scream journeyman to me.
He has been with FOUR team in SEVEN seasons. Unless he has a no tade clause, I fully expect that he will be dealt before the expiration of that contract. Anytime a guy has been with four teams in seven seasons, he is at least somewhat a journeyman.
It wasn't that. I expected that coming into the game. I don't have a problem with that style of pitching. What ever gets the job done. You shouldn't defend them Dominator, they don't deserve it. It certainly was a group effort to put on that game... I don't even want single one mental error over another. Both teams owe Willy for ending that game. That game wasn't worth the price of admission, no matter what park you put it in. AAA included. lol I mean... it was like watching "The English Patient" from begining to end... not falling asleep... and when it's finally over you reflect on what a complete waste of time that was... Women... That would be somewhere between Highlander and Blade Runner.
Why on earth would do you have to figure that a 25 year old player who skipped AAA would put up a career year in his 3rd year in the majors? As far as his history, his final year in the minors, he hit 0.335. How does nothing suggest he'll hit 0.320 again? A bunch of nonsense, twisted to try to justify an argument.
we traded nothing for nothing. Jennings sucked but it's not like Hirsh, Buchholz, or Taveras were gangbusters. and we have Taveras II in Josh Anderson.
Willy T has a .367 obp which is the most important stat for willy T. They should have never traded him.
He hit 0.335 ... once. The rest of the time was around 0.280. Players like him - those with no semblance of patience at the plate and absolutely no extra-base power - simply do not project well. As mentioned earlier, if Juan Pierre is your most comparable player, it is not a good thing.
Juan Pierre has NEVER missed a game, is a career .301 hitter, has NEVER stolen less than 45 bases in a season and has a championship ring. Not too shabby.
As a lead-off hitter, you follow the 7,8, and 9 spots no matter what. This usually means that there is no one on base when you are up to bat, when it is such, a lead-off hitter is supposed to get on base and start something, whether there are 2 outs or none out. So being a lead-off hitter is different than being a #3 or #6 hitter.
Most team's #7 and #8 hitters have career OBP's similiar to what Taveras' is. Taveras does have the capability to start rallies/get into scoring position without needing a bunt or help from a power hitter.... that's not being argued.
