This offense will not work. Possibly against certain match ups, but the way we won last night was: Getting bailed out on and1 3's. Getting to the line. Hitting 3s. Can't count on number 1 to work every game. Now if we could play DEFENSE, that would allow for more errors on offence, but unfortunately, it seemed like it was a race to see who could score more points first...exciting game, but not the greatest strategy in my opinion unless we have more reliable 3 point shooting.
Can our offense work in the playoffs ? Maybe, if our outside shots are falling and Dwight and Asik go beast mode on the boards, we could give ANY team problems. Will our Defense work in the playoffs? Absolutely NO! We can't keep giving up open shots and drives to the paint with only Dwight or Asik stepping up. Our bigs are our last line of defense, not our first. Harden and Parsons need to do a better job stopping their man.
The problem isn't even the ISO play at face value...... When the Rockets go into the postseason, defenses will be focused on stopping shots at the rim and the three ball.... What's in between is going to be left wide open. Our success will ride on whether we use the entire offensive area or just the arc and the rim. "Moreyball" is effective during the regular season, but is fool's gold in the postseason. Whenever defenses can shut down the rim and the paint, we need alternatives to score. If we force layups and threes instead of taking open shots wherever they might occur, this will be yet another unexpectedly short postseason.
We scored over 100 points in 5 of 6 games against OKC last playoffs with an average offensive rating of 105.9. I know our offense will work in the playoffs.
In the playoffs, fewer runouts means fewer easy baskets and more half-court sets. In the playoffs, the whistle is held, it is more difficult to get to the FT line, defenses play harder, foul harder, and get away with a lot more contact. In the playoffs, teams play team defense and force the half-court offense to use it's 4th and 5th offensive options a whole lot more. In the playoffs, our 4th and 5th options to start games will be Pat Beverley (if he gets healthy) and Terrence Jones. Our half-court offense is going to struggle. Jones can't shoot efficiently from anywhere outside of 3-feet from the basket. Defenses are going to give him a lot of shots.
Our offense will be fine. The reason defense is better in the playoffs is because teams are better. There are no cupcakes to pad your stats against. Oh, and the number of FTs goes up in the playoffs.
Yes, FT count does go up. And that's actually a huge problem for us. You see, both Dwight and Jones are barely above 50% from the FT line. This is actually a drag coefficient on our offense and it will be used against us in the playoffs. That's why I keep saying it's imperative that we get 4 shooters on the floor. I really don't care who they are...Garcia, Hamilton, Parsons, whoever. But we gotta get all the guys around Dwight (or Asik) on the floor to be able to shoot free throws along with shooting the 3-ball. When you put in Jones and Dwight (or Asik and DMo, or any 2-man combination of those 4 bigs) together you give the defense too many options that they can foul and send bad free throw shooters to the line instead of allow all those finishes we've been seeing in the regular season. That just means the interior defense will be rougher and more rugged than we faced in the regular season and there is no way the refs are going to call everything. The fouls will be definitive. There won't be a ton of And-1's but rather fouls that prevent the dunk/layup and send the poor free-throw shooter to the line. FT Shooting: Dwight 54.8% Asik 59.8% Jones 58.6% DMo 60.8% Combined they are 56.4% since Dwight is shooting the bulk of those freebies. This translates to 1.13 points per possession on all possessions where one of those 4 guys are fouled and go to the free throw line. Everybody else on the team shoots a combined 80.8% from the line which translates to a PPP of 1.616 points per possession on all other possession where another player is fouled and goes to the line. On all possessions where we get a shot off without a shooting foul committed those possessions translate to 1.27 points per possession. And of course on turnovers the points per possession is zero. So if you're the opponent you look at this and you look at Dwight and Jones' shooting percentages and you decide you're going to give Jones the outside shot...you're going to play Harden and Howard real tight on the pick and roll and help off on them with Jones man, and you're going to play fairly tight on Parsons and Bev looking for turnovers and then if those guys blow by you are going to collapse on them and force them to give up the ball to Jones...and Dwight and then as a last resort you're gonna hack the crap out of Dwight and Jones and make them have to knock down the freebies. Here's what the defense wants to do to us: 1. Play tight on the pick and roll, collapse on Harden and force him into turnovers. 2. If he gives it up successfully, you let Jones catch it high, you make it difficult for him to drive by collapsing in the paint, you make it difficult for him to throw it inside to anybody because you are collapsed inside, and you welcome him to throw it up from outside. 3. If Jones somehow manages to drive into the paint area or throw the ball in the low block to Dwight, you play tight hard, bumping defense on Dwight or Jones...not worried about fouling them on the shot but contesting them to the hilt. They either miss the shot, turn the ball over, or they go to the line and have to shoot the freebies. All of which are acceptable options to the defense. I don't know how to make it any clearer to you. Any combination of Dwight/Asik/Jones/DMo on the floor together in the playoffs is going to be a problem for us offensively as the defense will use their poor shooting against us and water down our offensive efficiency by letting them have the ball and keeping the ball away from Harden and the other 3 shooters as much as possible.
One thing the Rockets can adjust is the PnR aspect of their offense. Let the roller and the picker time it better.
whoever left me this nice message and rep, thx 4 the laughs. I laughed out loud for probably a good 4 minutes. Next time sign your name so I can thank you. "go back to jlin.net u b****ass lof. we bash lin because of fanboys like u hating on Lin's teammates. Cute sig, fanboi! lol"
From the recent catch-up games with fewer turnovers than before, I can tell the Rox are maturing. McHale still needs to do better in momentum shifting timeouts, match up substitutions, really going with the hot hand and clutch time play drawings.
For all its complexities, basketball is still a simple game. Put ball in the basket, from a far or up close more times than the other team and you win. The best team does not always win. The best team in more of the seven games than the other wins. Remember when the Sura Rockets were red hot against the Mavs and won the first two games in Dallas. Wow, were we all psyched. Dallas took it to seven and won by 40+. We didn't see that coming. I still say we were the "better" team that year. Seven games said otherwise.
It's a combination of predictable offense plus mismatch, FT problems and defense. We are improving, but we have quite a ways to go. The absence of a healthy Howard and Bev could spell doom for us.
Rockets overall points per possession:1.08 1.13 -1.08 =+0.05 points per possession when Howard and company are at the line.
No. Iso ball, especially Dwight post-ups, will get destroyed by any second round team. Hopefully it will be a learning moment.
