Happy with the win tonight, the season so far but our Harden iso, shooting too many threes, not hitting 3 pointers and FTs at a good % and not playing great defense is very concerning. The half-court offense becomes way more important in the playoffs, so even if we win, it's not going to come easy. What do you guys think?
Dwight will be back, so then we can play inside out and he will open up those threes we are so use to getting.. Bev will also be back to help shore up the defense. Its all about matchups, so if we get Portland and the Spurs, that would be the most favorable road to the WCF were we would either face the clippers or Thunders.
Whilst defense is a valid concern - I am not TOO worried about it right now. This team has shown several times that they can flip a switch and turn into a defensive juggernaut - which only fuels the flames for our fast break offense. And it only takes a few minutes to turn a game on it's head when we go on a run. Although you're dancing with the devil when you rely on that 'switch' - I'm banking on the players lifting their games and intensity for the playoffs - and put forth a much more sustained effort then what we see most nights. We've shown numerous times this season we can win in a variety of ways on the offensive end from multiple sources. There will definitely be lapses and droughts, but I've more confidence in this squad to overcome those then previous years.
I think too much is put into the game turning into something else entirely in the playoffs. It's still the same game...and no they don't hold their whistles in the playoffs, superstars still get superstar BS calls. The only thing that really changes is that we won't be playing OKC on the end of a back 2 back and every player will be rested for the next game. Also that it being a 7 game series will mean adjustments will have to be made. I just don't believe it. The Suns had plenty of success in the playoffs playing their style and they did not win it all but it wasn't because of their offense or because they were forced to slow down. I think the reason a team like that has never won it all is because the most well-rounded team wins. The team that can play grind it out ball...play fast-break ball...play methodical half-court ball...the team that can adapt the most usually wins. The Heat can play as fast as anyone in the NBA but they can also slow it down. Like, I don't think the Spurs will win it this year because they just can't turn it up to that pace consistently and the Rockets won't be able to win it all because they are not a good half-court team. Not to say they won't have success, I think there is a chance they make the WCF...but the reason they have so much trouble with the Clips and OKC is because those teams can play our style but can also slow it down and execute a half-court offense consistently.
We have enough one-on-one weaponsH 12 post play, DMo post play, Harden's herky-jerky moves at the top of the key. Then you have the pickNroll... We have weapons even if we are not running full speed, or moving the ball around.
As always it comes down to match ups. There's really only 2 teams that can keep pace with the Rockets on the floor and still have an advantage over the other parts of our game. If a team can neutralize our transition/speed game, either through strong transition defense or through a similarly effective transition/speed game (like OKC, the Clippers, and Phoenix), then what determines the game is what's left. In the case of Phoenix they have no inside game or paint defense, so while we may not be able to run them off the floor, we can destroy them in the paint off dribble drives and drops into the post. However, that doesn't work against the Clippers or OKC as they have elite shot blocking (making it hard to drive), and strong enough bigs to make Dwight's life very hard. Against the Spurs we give up certain things, but there's parts of our offense that they really struggle to contain. Most match ups in the play offs are rock, paper, scissors. Unfortunately, Rockets vs Clippers/OKC is more like Rock vs bigger Rock. Translation, we'll do fine *most* of the time. We're just in the unfortunate position of being in a killer conference this year. If we were in the East, or if this were a more typical year the Rockets would be one of the favorites to make a run to the Finals. For example, just consider the following... The Rockets just won their 50th game playing in a division with 4 (FOUR!) play off teams. And in a year when 48 wins might NOT qualify for the play offs Southwest Division Spurs 59-17 Rockets 50-25 Dallas 46-31 Memphis 45-31 NOH 32-44 (would be 10th seed in the East!!) We'll be okay this year. Can still use more pieces and improvement on the bench, but we should be okay for at least the first 2 rounds with Portland/Spurs.
And if the Pelicans didn't have so many injured players this year miss games, they would probably be somewhere near the 8 seed... Really tough division.
1. Even more plays for Harden and Howard will be called by the coach leading to an even more predictable offense... 2. Come playoff time, a lot of the whistles Harden is getting will not be called... 3. I have a feeling teams will keep fouling Howard in order to slow our pace down and hope he misses them in crunch time... 4. Everybody else will be spotting up for the trey... 5. Jones, Caspi, Lin, and Asik will play tentatively and out of sync. Bev will be the opposite. He will be overly aggressive and may injure himself again or foul out early. 6. Harden will iso the ball in crunch time and the players and coaches will create one defensive plan: just guard harden 7. Mchale will have headscratching defensive matchups and will mess with the rotation... 8. Mchale will not call timeouts when the other team has momentum. He'll wait until we are down by 12+ points... this is just off the top of my head....
See torocan's comment above. He nailed it. The Rockets can win it all if they get hot from beyond the arc. See Dallas a few years ago. Everybody bumps up the intensity in the playoffs. The Rockets will too.
Won't be as much perimeter ISO once Howard returns. However, Dwight needs to play better and smarter.... he needs to get better post position and pass to shooters when his move isn't there... we need to make open 3's. Turnovers are another issue.
that's a very big if. are players are still relatively young and inexperienced and will more than likely become overly anxious during the playoffs.
We're the 4th best team, and will most likely lose to one of the top 3 in the second round. Our offense will probably work about as well as it has the rest of the season. Of course, there are no home games against Utah in the playoffs.
I hope McHale realizes how much more effective Dwight can be in the pick and roll game. DHoward is a turnover machine in the post. It's not the strongest part of his game and the Harden/Howard pick and roll is just deadly. We should milk that to death until someone can prove that they have the ability to stop it in any way, shape, or form. Unfortunately, you have to drop the ball down to DHoward in the post to keep the big fella happy and working it on the defensive end.
I'm a firm believer in the half court game takes over in the playoffs seen it for two decades now and this team is just not built to play that game. Another poster mentioned in another thread the need for maybe not another star but another play through player like a Zach Randolph perhaps. Just another guy who can create in the post or one on one. Howard has improved but if he catches the ball too far away from the basket and has to dribble there's a good chance it's a turnover. For all the talk of no midrange shots if this team had a Melo, Dirk, Bosh, LMA, that could hit that shot and create on their own the Rockets would be a juggernaut. We already have plenty of guys who play well within the flow like Parsons and Jones. I have no doubt Morey will try hard for one of the aforementioned this summer. Prediction? Second maybe third round defeat. It comes down to hitting those threes, if the Rockets just go nutso hot the sky is the limit. Cold and it could be a VERY quick exit.
