The Thunder will make it. They still have 3 starters and 6 solid rotation players good to go; you're all leaving out the refs. Contrary to popular belief, refs are paid to make the NBA money. Ensuring the narrative ends with the Thunder making it to the playoffs is profitable for the NBA. .
OKC making the playoffs just because making the NBA money is a weak supporting claim. some believe it and some don't. it's mostly the gamblers that believe it.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>PG Ish Smith underwent a physical for the Thunder today in OKC and has been pegged as the team's hardship relief. Could be in uniform Friday</p>— Darnell Mayberry (@DarnellMayberry) <a href="https://twitter.com/DarnellMayberry/status/530055290235142144">November 5, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
OKC has a pretty easy schedule the next weeks which could be good for them, but they will get a problem problem if they lose those games because they will have to make up for those losses later in the season when their schedule looks much tougher. So they might not fail to make the playoffs in that case, it could be "decided" within the next weeks already.
Without Durant and RW how good is OKC? I don't know if they can beat even the worst teams in the NBA.
It's hard to imagine they win more than 5 out of the next 12, and there is no reason to guarantee even that despite having Milwaukee, Boston, Detroit, Denver, and 2 games vs Utah. The other 6 this month are vs Houston, Memphis, Sacramento, Brooklyn, Golden State and the Knicks. Westbrook then coming back some time around the start of December. 5 wins would put them at 6 and 11. Certainly not an impossible task to make the playoffs if Durant comes back 100% around the 2nd week of December. Still, it's not like they are going to go undefeated even with both Westbrook and Durant back, and the rest of the supporting cast has to get healthy too. Best case is 50-54 wins I think unless they really exceed my expectations over the next month. I imagine it's going to take at least 49 wins to make the playoffs.
I don't know if OKC can even consider a race to the bottom. Yeah maybe they get a top 10 pick by throwing the season, but then you're left with 2015-16 as the big "all in" year, the possible last hurrah for Durant in OKC. Anything short of the championship and there is a shot Durant looks elsewhere for an organization that isn't a bunch of cheapskates. If Durant is going to sign onto a team for another 5 years, he probably wants to make sure its with one who won't break up a potential dynasty to save a few pennies. And with the Wizards having the cap space, and looking to be on the rise in the East, possible he makes his own "coming home" move, especially to the East where it would be dramatically easier.
[rQUOTEr]Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook to participate in parts of Saturday's practice When the Thunder’s Friday morning shootaround opened for reporters, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were seen on a far court, continuing to intensify their individual workouts. Wearing a protective splint, Westbrook dribbled and shot with his surgically repaired right hand. Durant, meanwhile, rose off his surgically repaired right foot for a pair of easy dunks. “They had good workouts the last couple days,” Scott Brooks said. And the positive injury news didn’t stop there. Brooks also revealed that the two superstars will participate in parts of Thunder practice on Saturday afternoon — the first team work for either since their injuries. “Probably not any of the contact stuff,” Brooks said. “(But) they will go through some of our practice and we’ll go from there.” The two seem to be healing at an accelerated rate and a return by the end of next week — particularly for Westbrook — isn’t out of the question. Per the NBA’s hardship rule, neither of the stars (or Mitch McGary or Grant Jerrett) are allowed to return until the Nov. 28th home game against Derek Fisher’s New York Knicks. That’s because Ish Smith’s second hardship period was granted this past Tuesday, a 10-day exception that expires on Thanksgiving. OKC was originally granted the hardship because it had four long-term injuries. Under the rules, none of those injured players can return in the 10-day hardship window.[/rQUOTEr]
How deep of a hole is too deep? <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>OKC now 3-11. Need 48 wins for 8-seed, have to go 45-22 w/o Russ for 2 more weeks & KD for 4-6 more weeks. Just doesn't seem realistic.</p>— Bill Simmons (@BillSimmons) <a href="https://twitter.com/BillSimmons/status/536000570683695104">November 22, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Good look for Reggie Jackson to win at the buzzer rims out. Skid busting win for Nets. OKC inches closer toward an unrecoverable hole.</p>— Chris Mannix (@ChrisMannixSI) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChrisMannixSI/status/535999748864741376">November 22, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Clearly if these timetables for KD & WB stand, OKC is done. But there are indications they will return early.
The Thunder won't make it. I predicted 5-15. They may not even hit that. Then in December when Westbrook and/or Durant are either not back yet or still getting their legs back, their schedule gets brutal. Then in January they play mostly road games. I think even if they make it up to .500 by the All Star break they'll still be a long shot. Not impossible, but they'll have to win on like a 70 win pace to get up to 50 wins - and the last part of the season is mostly vs. Western Conference competition.
Given their schedule going forward, I think that they're almost at the point of no return. Next 5 games... vsGSW vsUtah vsKnicks @NOP @Detroit Let's say that OKC wins 2/5 of the next 5 games (Knicks and Detroit). That puts their record at 5-14. To reach 50 wins they would need to go 45-18 or .714 for the remainder of the season. Considering that they went .720, .732 and .712 over the last 3 seasons, I just don't see it happening. Multiple weeks without Durant even when Westbrook gets back. Not to mention rust from being on the sideline for so long. And that's without even talking about the other injuries on their roster. Even if you give them 3-2 over the next 5 games, that's still 44-19 or .698 for the remainder of the season. That's in a West that's even tougher this year than it was last year and an improved Eastern Conference. I think their window is at most 10 days long. If they don't go 3-2 or better over the next 10 days, they might as well not rush Westbrook or Durant back and enjoy the lottery pick.
So, how are we feeling now? They're 23-24 after the loss tonight. Yeah, yeah, every year is different but: 2013-14 6th: 51-31 7th: 50-32 8th: 49-33 9th: 48-34 So...25-10(ish) in their last 35 games?
