A quick glance at the number of players, of any age, to average 20 shots per game in the NBA for a whole season and you find a pretty short list. Generally less than 10 per year. Sometimes more like only 5 or less. But even rarer……I just looked back at the numbers since the year 2000 and if I didn’t miss anyone then…. 1 player aged 20 or younger has averaged 20 shots per game over that time. Lebron James in his 2nd season. There were only 3 other seasons by a player age 19-20 to even come close to 20 shots per game. Lebron James(Year 1: 18.9 shots per game) and Kevin Durant(Year 2 : 18.8 shots per game) Kyrie Irving (Year 2 : 18.1 shots per game) I guess I won’t say it’s impossible, but I find it extremely unlikely that Green even approaches 20 shots per game on average.
Whoa...can we finish addressing your previous false narratives before we move on to a new one? First you said that he "struggled" in the g-league. Nobody that scores almost 18 per game on a 61% TS% is struggling. Can we agree on that? Next you claimed that he was "featured" by the Ignite. I showed the numbers, he didn't even get the highest usage or shot attempts on his own team. Was 50th in the league in usage and 33rd in shot attempts. You didn't reply to that so can I assume that you acknowledge that he wasn't "featured"? Then you said that his usage wouldn't be that high because he wasn't a combo guard. I showed the actual numbers to disprove that. Again you didn't reply to those numbers. Are you acknowledging that a non-combo guard can have high usage? Now you've moved on to +/-. A kid puts up 30pts, 7 assists and 5 rebounds and 3 steals on 65% TS% and that convinces you that he's struggling? I'll assume that you're aware that +/- is a team stat? The Ignite is a team who's star players are straight out of HS and their playing against grown men in a pro league. They weren't going to be successful as far as wins and losses, they knew that coming in. The purpose of that team is to develop those young kids and get them ready for the NBA, wins and losses are secondary. I'll quote the Ignite head coach Brian Shaw: "Shaw knew the Ignite were talented. He was equally sure that wouldn’t translate to wins. “I tried to make [G League execs] understand early that we are going to get our asses handed to us more times than not,” says Shaw. The star players were teenagers in a league filled with men, all of whom were eager to take down a team of hyped prospects. " https://www.si.com/nba/2021/06/22/g-league-ignite-jalen-green-jonathan-kuminga-daily-cover I get it, you wanted Mobley. That's fine but stop with the false narratives to try to make Green look bad. If you really expect Green to only average 10pts next year then let's make a tip jar wager on it? How about $100 tip jar bet that Green averages over 12 pts next year? That's 20% higher than what you said that you expected so it shouldn't be a problem, right?. You willing to do that?
In context, when said "struggled to put up X number of points" it means my point was that he only put up X number of points in a really weak league so it's crazy to project him to score even more in the best league in the world. To his credit, he scored his 17 points efficiently.....but scoring 17 points per game efficiently projects to about a 10 points a game scorer in the NBA. As to him being "featured", there was only one player on the entire team that took more shots per game than he did.....how is that not featuring him? Kuminga had a slightly higher usage% than he did, but that's the ONLY starter on the team that had a higher usage% than Green.... You are trying to make it out as if they were keeping the ball from him, that's not the case. When I point out Green's +/- in that one playoff game where he scored 30, I do so to show that despite the padded stats, it was in a blowout. When your team is down 30 getting laughed off the court, who cares that your stat line was good? Making excuses for a draft crush is not a good look. If you had put straight out of high school Lebron on the Ignite, he carries them to the G league championship. The Vipers were led by a 20 year old kid and a 19 year old kid.....those are the "grown men" who handing them their asses. Now getting back to that playoff game, with Jalen Green on the court, their offensive rating was 96.5....pretty terrible, with him off the court, it was 126.7 meaning he was a -30 to their offensive rating, the largest detriment to the team of anyone that played significant minutes. Sadly, it doesn't get much better on the defensive side of the ball, with him on the court, his team had a 130.2 defensive rating, they improved to a 115.4 when he was off the court. He simply wasn't any good in that game, despite having the padded raw stats. Moving on from that. Look, my opinion of Green has nothing to do with which prospect I would have preferred the Rockets draft. I'm just being realistic about who Green currently is whereas his fanbois have their heads in the clouds IMO. They simultaneously make excuses for why he wasn't better in a G league that we've watched outright scrubs dominate year after year while predicting he'll bust into the NBA as one of the top scorers in the league. It's outright insane. Could he get there eventually? Sure, but you guys are just setting yourself up for disappointment by making the expectations so unrealistic....and you'll likely blame everyone else for it when the kid doesn't live up to them. It's ridiculous.
So, are you going to take the tip jar bet? Jalen Green averages at least 12pts next year. Should be an easy win for you since you believe that Green is going to actually average fewer pts/game than Tate, Brooks or Augustine did last year. Are we on for a $100 tip jar bet?
i'm good with 17, 18, 19 shots per game although i would factor in slower pace for those guys compared to pace today.
Can you please point out where I've expressed any expectations for Green next season other than wanting to bet you on your 10pts/game prediction?
My mistake, I confused you with another Green fanboi who was making grandiose predictions. My prediction of him averaging closer to 12 ppg than 20 stands.
As expected, bobby is all talk. I'll add $100 to this bet. If he averages less than 12 PPG I'll put in $100, if he averages more, Bobby can't even reply to a post about Jalen Green or even mention him for a year. Bet is off if he gets injured more than 40% of the season. I tried putting bobby on ignore but somehow every thread seems to be flooded with people getting sucked into arguing with Bobby, who literally says the same thing over and over.
You've twice stated that you expect him to average 10pts/gm. For the third time: Will you accept the tip jar bet of him scoring at least 12 pts/gm next season?
A few comparisions: Anthony Edwards was the #1 pick in the 2020 draft. At Georgia, Edwards averaged 19.1 pts/game on a very inefficient 52.0% TS%. He took 15.8 FGA/gm at Georgia and had a usage of 30.8%. Last year in his rookie season with the T-Wolves, Edwards averaged 19.3 pts/game on a similar TS% of 52.37%. He took 16.8 FGA/gm and had a usage rate of 27%. Donovan Mitchell - 13th pick of 2017 draft - last year at Louisville - 15.6pts, 13.1 FGA/gm, 53.4 TS%, 24.6 usage. Rookie year in NBA - 20.5 pts/gm, 17.2 FGA, 54% TS%, 29.1 usage. Tyrese Haliburton - 12 pick of 2020 draft - Last year at Iowa St. - 15.2 pts, 11.1 FGA/gm, 63.1 TS%, Usage 20.1 Rookie year in NBA - 13.0 pts, 10.7 FGA/gm, 58.5 TS%, 18.1 usage. Kendrick Nunn - Undrafted in 2018 draft. Final year at Illinois - 15.5 pts, 12.9 FGA/gm, 55.5 TS%, 23.5 usage. Rookie year in NBA - 15.3 pts, 13.6 fga/gm, 53.4 TS%, 24.1 Usage Devin Booker - 13th pick 2015 draft - At Kentucky - 10 pts/gm, 7.6 FGA, 60% TS%, 22.8 usage Rookie year in NBA - 13.6 pts, 11.4 FGA/gm, 53.5% TS%, 23.0 usage. All of these guys scoring transitioned to the NBA immediately. The players who drove to the hoop often seemed to maintain their efficiency better than guys who were primarily jump shooters. That makes sense as all of these players were transitioning to a longer NBA 3 pt line. Green who's always been uber-efficient, played in a higher level league and already has experience with the NBA 3pt line - How does his game translate to the NBA? There will certainly be a learning curve but scoring can translate to the NBA immediately.
No, I've stated that 17 PPG in the g league typically translates to 10 or fewer PPG in the NBA because that's what the history is. My prediction is about 12 PPG as I've said repeatedly but I'm not married to that prediction. You seem emotionally attached to this player and that's fine, but you have to understand he's just another rookie to me. Could there be scenarios where he score more? Sure, I just don't find them to be likely. That's not really a stance where you make a bet on it. I'd be more firm about a stance that he's not scoring 20 a game because I don't see plausible scenarios where that happens.
people are already saying green is better than kpj.. that's just not true. they battled last year in the g league. KPJ has proven himself and he's the man on this team. Green will have to grow and adjust.
I am not worried in the slightest about KPJ and JG on offense. I just want them to show growth on defense this year. They are both super capable of being a top-flight defending backcourt. With that will come wins.
Try reading what you are responding to over again and see if you do a better job comprehending what you've been told.
That's really not how it works. Growth in skill and things like strength are accelerated at ages 18-21. Look at Anthony Edwards. Scored 19 ppg in college with much lower scoring efficiency at the same age Green averaged 19 on significantly better efficiency with much tougher competition and a full length NBA 3 pt line. Edwards averaged 19 ppg in his rookie campaign in the NBA. And that's because going from 18 to 19 and 19 to 20 is where player development sees the largest jump. Green was 18 when he entered the G-league and turned 19 recently.
He’s not getting 20 ppg with with all the scorers we have. It’s more important he’s setting guys ups. He needs to make sure Wood and Green(our primary scorers ) gets going. You rarely want your pg being your lead scorer
