I would like to say Republicans will focus on the hispanic vote with immigration reform and related measures because it's the rational thing for them to do in their survival. I don't expect they will change much on abortion or other social issues -- they might talk about them less or soften a little, but I'd be surprised if they did an about face on things that really stem from moral convictions. But, the hispanic stuff isn't much about morality, so I would think it would be easy and rational and not objectionable to really do something different there. But, I don't know that they are ready to do the rational thing. I don't mean that in a Republican-bashing way, because I think Republican voters would go along. I see this last election as Romney throwing in with reactionaries because they had the money to fund the campaign. I think this dependence might need to be broken before the party can set a forward-looking strategy.
It really depends on the next four years. If underemployment stays high and the Republican party does a better job of reaching out to Hispanic Community, their ideals won't have to change much.
I doubt it. Every time they're presented with that opportunity they double own on the status quo. The hardcore ideologues start talking about candidates not being conservative enough. I'm not sure how many times in a row they need to lose to finally understand but I don't see them changing much.
Why do Republicans have to insist in catering the Far right Evangelicals? I'm a financial conservative but I'd rather be broke and not have these nuts jobs running the country.
Just a little bit of number in table form. White voter turnout was 72% in 2012 and is expected to be 70 or lower for 2016. It was 74% four years ago and 77% in 2004. Minority will be the majority in 2050. Here is how the minority voted in 2012 Obama Romney Other White:72% 39% 59% 2% African-american: 13% 93% 6% 1% Latino:10% 71% 27% 2% Asian:3% 73% 26% 1% Other:2% 58% 38% 4%
Expect civil war within the party. Rand Paul posted this on Facebook today: "The 2012 election is now over. The fight to restore constitutionally limited government has just begun."
I think Nate Silver did an article about VPs on losing tickets and their futures not being bright. I don't think Ryan embarrassed himself on the national stage, but I definitely don't think he did anything to make him a superstar to the party outside of the tea party types. Losing Wisconsin the way they lost it (called with less than 3% of the vote reported) will really hurt him. As a Congressman who can't carry his state in a national election he just doesn't have enough appeal in my mind. If he wants to run I think he should set his sights on 2020 or later and start working to build a national profile as a senator or governor. Note that my list was not who I WANT to run necessarily, just who I think are the potential candidates to keep an eye on over the next 2 years. See what they do. What moves they make, what books they write, what speeches they give, etc. That list if the list of people who could make up the frontrunners on a stage in the primaries. Daniels I think is almost a lock to run. He comes across as very intelligent and poised and is a darling of budget hawks. Jeb Bush is going to give serious thought to running and will in my mind be the one doing the most work over the next two years to try to get himself into the national conversation. If he doesn't run, I fully expect him to be the favorite for a Veep nod. Condi is interesting. She is someone I think that party leaders are going to try to draft. Party leaders know they need to break through with minorities if the party is to survive. They know they need to shed the tea party stigma and the religious right stigma. Condi helps them do those things.
I don't think this will happen, but I think the Republican party is missing an opportunity. The Libertarian base is nowhere big enough to win a national election, but some Libertarian ideals are very popular across demographics. Pivoting to embrace the Libertarian ideas on civil liberties and social issues while still painting those positions as "conservative Constitutionalism" would really help Republicans.
Like I've said many Republicans didn't like Math or the reality they were faced with, so they made up their own reality, and convinced themselves their made up reality was reasonable and right. It wasn't just individuals like Jopat, basso, mojoman, granville, and others. They came out with that unskewed polls website that was providing them with reasoning to believe their irrational thoughts. Of course in the end their made up alternate reality crashed down on their heads. But it's a bad sign when they are organized enough in their battle with reality, math, science, and history to make up their own faulty websites to feed their irrationality. Your asking them to learn from their mistakes, when they have a hard time learning from history, math and science.
They just need to go back to being conservative moderates and they'll go back to winning Presidential elections.
More like the fight to purge libertarianism, Rand, and all of that crap and chuck it back into the garbage bin has begun.
Unless a candidate like Mike Pence has cred with both wings and there is no fight. If Pence doesn't run, fellow Hoosier Mitch Daniels might be the guy. Forget Bobby Jindal, he isn't ready for prime time and never will be. Paul Ryan may throw his hat into the ring but I don't think he helped himself this time. 2016 may be a little early for him. IMO, he needs more seasoning to be taken seriously. Jeb Bush is definitely someone to watch. It's 2016 or never for him. Chris Christie is a no-go for 2016. He'll get a lot of attention from the press but has no chance. He doesn't fit the mold of a GOP presidential nominee and people won't forget he gave Obama props in the closing days of the 2012 election. If the GOP is dumb enough to nominate a divisive lightening rod like Scott Walker, they deserve to lose again. The GOP will start catering to Hispanics. Put that in the bank. We'll know if they are serious if their immigration stance softens. Otherwise, they are doomed to indefinite erosion nationally.
A3po is right there with me on some of those names. I think Pence is a VERY likely choice to be a future nominee for the presidency. We basically agree on every name you listed.
Oh yeah - absolutely. I think your list is dead-on as far the collection of individuals that will be tempted or in the mix. I was just thinking out loud what I thought of their prospects.
