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Why we suck : Analytic Perspective

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by HtownRock, Mar 26, 2016.

  1. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    Of course Morey doesn't know why we suck from analytics perspective. That's why he needs to read CF more to educate himself on these numbers.
     
  2. Jontro

    Jontro Member

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    mauri needs to watch Moneyball again and ask Brad Pitt how he did it.
     
    1 person likes this.
  3. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    or that Billy guy that Pitt was supposed to play
     
  4. PhiSlamma15

    PhiSlamma15 Member

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    MoreyBall will never work with players missing free throws and bricking 3's as much as the Rockets do. Works for Golden State tho
     
  5. SF3isBack!!

    SF3isBack!! Member

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    This is key. I've said in another thread if Dwight wants a pay cut and he stops demanding post touches then it would be nice to keep him. Dwight doesn't want a pay cut he wants a raise. Mr Clutch noted that Dwight is second in winshares which means he thinks the stat holds some weight. The problem is there is a huge drop from 1st to 2nd and Dwights 2nd is really close to everyone.
     
  6. SF3isBack!!

    SF3isBack!! Member

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    For winshares if you look at the MVP, of the I believe 6 of the last 8 MVP winners led the league in win-shares their year. Even the guys who lost the MVP that year but led the league in Winshares were considered to be MVP contenders. Harden led the league in Winshares last year BTW and won player MVP and was Runner up for league MVP. Now either we believe that it's just a coincidence or you can say winshare is a pretty good indicator of who is doing what for their team. No it's no end all be all but a good indicator.
     
  7. Blaster_333

    Blaster_333 Member

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    Spurs and Warriors organziation no doubt laughing and shaking their head in disgust.

    They pretty much laid the blueprint to succeed, especially in this more team-oriented era, yet a good number of teams still don't even understand the basic principles, and it shows in big chunks of fanbases.

    The Celtics get it, and are prepared to foster that elite talent to put them into the truly elite that may or may not be available to them, luck of the NBA.

    Hornets and Hawks not too far behind.

    Riley will always be doing his thing in Miami.

    Culture, from your FO down to the last player on your team.

    If you don't have principles, everything will continue to break down.
     
  8. slothy420

    slothy420 Paper Street Soap Co.

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    Is there an analytic that measures knuckleheadedness?
     
  9. chievous minniefield

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    No, dude. Your fancy number magic is great and all, but you've clearly missed the memo.

    James Haren is our big problem. Our main problem. Our only problem. If only James Haren woul play efense.

    There's no I in team, but there's one in WIN, and there's another one in JAMES HAREN IS THE PROBLEM.

    Number magic.
     
  10. munco

    munco Member

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    Shouldn't Harden's WS be higher than anyone you compared him too. He has the lowest WS you listed but has the weakest supporting cast
     
  11. neruto

    neruto Member

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    You are confused. It's more easier to get more WS when you're playing in a winning team. All the top 10 players in the WS ranking, except for Harden, are from Golden State, San Antonio, OKC, LAC, Toronto and Cleveland. So, actually Harden is at a disadvantage here.
     
  12. neruto

    neruto Member

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    Another evidence would be AD and Cousins. Both excellent players in their own right and putting up very good numbers, but since their team is losing, they are not even in top 20 in WS ranking.
     
  13. malakas

    malakas Member

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    How does breaking a decades old record of most turnovers affects Hardens Win shares? Discuss.
     
  14. AroundTheWorld

    AroundTheWorld Insufferable 98er
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    Is there a stat that measures the flipside of win shares? Loss shares? I guess if you have the ball all the time, you contribute more to wins (when you having the ball all the time goes well), but my hypothesis would be that you also contribute more to losses?
     
  15. neruto

    neruto Member

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    I think another good way of judging how strong we are as a team is VORP (Value over Replacement Player). It simply means how much a given player is worth more than an average player at his position.

    Our starting 5 VORP is

    C Howard - 1.3
    PF Dmo - -0.2
    SF Ariza - 2.0
    SG Harden - 6.1 (1st among SGs, 5th among all players)
    PG Beverly - 1.1

    Based on this metric, we have the best SG, and rest are just barely above average to below average at their respective position. Same thing with our bench players. Another indication of the fact that this team is just not that deep.
     
  16. neruto

    neruto Member

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    WS could be negative for a given player, but I don't that means what you are saying. Maybe a negative plus-minus would be the closest thing to what you want, since if you are getting outscored by the opponent while you're on the court, that by definition means you are contributing to the team losses.
     
  17. PhiSlamma15

    PhiSlamma15 Member

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    BINGO! Lipstick on a pig is still a pig no matter how long we talk about it
     
  18. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Member
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    [​IMG]
     
  19. dje243

    dje243 Member

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    I was wondering about this. Thanks
     
  20. oakdogg

    oakdogg Member

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    That's cool, but you don't even need stats. Watch just about any game and it's blatantly obvious to any reasonable person that Harden carries us. I feel like we might as well be having a heated debate over whether cheetahs are fast or whether fish are good swimmers. James Harden is special, and every Rockets fan should be grateful we have him.
     

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