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Why we suck : Analytic Perspective

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by HtownRock, Mar 26, 2016.

  1. HtownRock

    HtownRock Member

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    To all the DOFs :

    Just because certain teams are having mediocre seasons, it doesn't necessarily mean that the best player on that team is wholly responsible. In fact, it's usually the opposite, meaning that those teams are at least 'mediocre' by virtue of having one elite player on their roster, otherwise they would have been at the very bottom.

    Case in Point

    1986-1987 Micheal Jordan : avg 37 PPG but team was 40-42

    2002-2003 Tracy Mcgrady : avg 32 PPG but team was 42-40

    2005-2006 Allen Iverson : avg 33 PPG but team was 38-44

    2006-2007 Kobe Bryant : avg 32 PPG but team was 42-40

    2008-2009 Dwayne Wade : avg 30 PPG but team was 43-39

    These are all one of the greatest shooting guards in NBA history, and yet when their team sucked in general, their individual brilliance was not enough to bring their team to the championship contender level.

    How could anyone with common sense blame Harden for this season? That would make sense if we actually play better without Harden. But do we? All the stats are telling the same story : we absolutely suck without Harden on the floor, prob comparable to 76ers. Harden is leading the team in every category out there, and is in top 10 in almost all of them, so he is doing his job.

    And by the way, all the elite teams have at least two or three all-star caliber players on their roster. HOW MANY DO WE HAVE?

    Do you guys honestly look at our starting members, with declining Dwight and huge hole at the 4 spot, and say "wow this is one of the best staring 5 in the league!". Do you honestly look at our bench members and say "wow this is one of the deepest team in the league!". Of course not, everybody knows that we just don't have that many talented players, and that's a fact. And don't even get me started with the coaching staff.

    Of course, Harden could do better. That goes without saying. But there's a huge difference between 'he could do better' and 'the reason we suck is because of Harden'.

    No, the reality is we would even suck more without Harden. We are at least where we are because we have Harden on our roster.
     
  2. HtownRock

    HtownRock Member

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  3. LosPollosHermanos

    LosPollosHermanos Houston only fan
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    For once we are in agreement, and this guy seems like a troll, nothing more.

    Someone using his posting style was here a couple of months back, wonder if its the same person that got banned.
     
    1 person likes this.
  4. HtownRock

    HtownRock Member

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    Yup, that's why Harden has by far the highest +/-, on/off court rating on this team.

    remind me again, what are our numbers when Harden is not on the court?
     
  5. HtownRock

    HtownRock Member

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    hey, can you even explain what win share are? :)
     
  6. HtownRock

    HtownRock Member

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    Our record without Dwight is actually better this season

    This trend started last year. When Dwight was sidelined due to injuries, we had no problem maintaining similar winning percentages, which at the time surprised many fans.

    2014-2015 Houston Rockets

    With Dwight : 29-12

    Without Dwight : 27-14


    Only 2 win difference.

    Dwight's Real Plus Minus was 1.96, mere 18th among all centers. He had negative offensive RPM. Harden was just entering into his prime. No wonder his absence had such little impact.


    This year, it's gotten even worse.

    2015-2016 Houston Rockets

    With Dwight : 28-33

    Without Dwight : 7-4


    We are above .600 without Dwight, and .460 with him playing.

    He's also recording negative ORPM, as he always did for the past 4 years.


    Honestly, I'm so done with this guy. And I don't wanna hear anything about playoff Dwight blah blah blah. We are paying him $22 mil to play his heart out the whole freakin' year, including the regular season. If he wants to only show up come playoff time, we should treat him as a part-time contract player and pay him accordingly, 'cause that's all he is.

    He has the most ugly ass inefficient offensive game I've ever seen from a so called 'superstar' big man, and his defense has regressed to the point that he no longer even contests shots that are well within his reach.

    For the last time, let this clown walk. Build around Harden, Capela, Beasley, D-mo. Bring in some FAs who can actually score and create their own shot without having to constantly being spoon-fed. Have legitimate second offensive option, and we are well on our way to another good season.
     
  7. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Contributing Member

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    Now he's reposting old threads.
     
  8. neruto

    neruto Member

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    Not older than Dwight's legs and his senile post up game
     
  9. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Contributing Member

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    Well Dwight is 30, so you're correct.

    Great point.
     
  10. HtownRock

    HtownRock Member

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    Yeah, let's don't criticize a max player who puts up 2 points 5 rebounds and 6 fouls in an important game. Let's blame all the other guys but Dwight. He's our savior.
     
  11. oakdogg

    oakdogg Contributing Member

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    I think it should be obvious to just about everyone that we have too much of our cap invested in Dwight and are getting a bad ROI on that contract - even an eye test will tell you that. The genius move is not realizing we would be better off trading out Dwight for two 20 ppg All Stars. The genius move is actually figuring out how to get them. Not like we haven't tried that - recruit them every year. You can't just log into Amazon and order them up. Thankfully, we've been blessed with Beasley out of the blue.
     
  12. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    People like Beverley or Dmo are second string players on better teams

    the earlier folks realize that, the better
     
  13. FTW Rockets FTW

    FTW Rockets FTW Contributing Member

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    LOL too many wannabe analytical fools who just pick up a stat from BBall reference and use it in a wrong way to prove a point that the stat is not intended for

    Hilarious
     
  14. RV6

    RV6 Contributing Member

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    You're preaching to the choir.....we know this already. No one will argue they are more than role players or that Dwight hasn't regressed.
     
  15. oakdogg

    oakdogg Contributing Member

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    Other point too is not just getting those All Stars but finding ones that fit. We added a guy this year who had proven he's capable of getting a team 18 ppg and 10 apg, and it didn't work at all.

    Also, this Win Share thing - I don't know how it's calculated. But doesn't not having good teammates help a star's Win Shares? If we added 2 All Stars, wouldn't that take away shots & usage from Harden - reducing his ppg and apg - and therefore reducing his Win Shares? Maybe Harden looks better cuz he has no other options with him?
     
  16. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Contributing Member

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    It's possible but not really.

    As an example, Bosh went from the #1 guy in Toronto to the #3 guy in Miami and his win shares stayed similar.

    Maybe Hardens minutes get reduced in a stacked team, but WS/48 is a per minute stat so shouldn't be affected too much.
     
  17. HtownRock

    HtownRock Member

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    That's clearly not the case if you look at top elite teams' (GS, SAS, CLE, OKC) WS distribution that I posted in the thread.

    Almost always, players leading in WS category come from top teams, where there are several all-star tier players.

    The reason is simple : If there are more good players on the team, they will win more games. It's very hard for a bottom team's no.1 guy to accumulate many WSs, because, well, you are not winning the games in the first place.
     
  18. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Contributing Member

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    And then when you actually show them what it actually says they change the subject or say something like "this has nothing to do with my post"
     
  19. caneks

    caneks Rookie

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    +/- for player A mainly indicated how this player performs against the player B on the same position when player A is not on. What is your point to compare for all players?
    I said you suck on this, you do not believe it :eek:
     
  20. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Contributing Member

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    That's dumb. Guys with high WS shares win more, that's why they are on top teams.

    Top teams don't give them high win shares, they are good which leads to high win shares which leads to top teams.

    You have the causality backwards
     

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