Why We are Witnessing the Death of Modern Day Polling

This is whats funny about the post to me. Old Man Rock talks about Obama not giving his half brother in Kenya any money. He didnt meet his dad till he was like 10 and his pops didnt want anything to do with him, yet he never brings up the black side of mccain family and how mccain doesnt even acknowledge that side eventhough his brother goes to the family renunion every yr.

 

This is very worrisome. The worrisome part is that a mental defective such as yourself is still allowed to roam the aisles of polite society sans the canvas sweatshirt avec sleeve ties that you so richly deserve. Please remove your tinfoil headgear before approaching a microwave. Just because.

 

You need a hobby.

 

Why would a parent teaching a child to share be bad and warp a mind?

 

Senior moment?

I guess Old Man knows the true "poll numbers" better than the pollsters.

 

Sharing is bad? Redistribution is such a scary word!

 

A bit of it is hope

We are hearing more and more reports that the race is much closer than what the polls are calling. For example, in my state, (n. carolina), leans much closer to the red, although Obama has been up by more than a few points. I have no factual information to base my feeling. Regardless, if Obama does lose, you have to admit there is something wrong with the polling.

 

The composite polling average of N. Carolina is Obama by 0.3%. That's well within the margin of error.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_mccain_vs_obama-334.html

I think he will over-perform his polling there due to the quality of his organization, but that's just a theory. The polling shows it as a true toss-up state.

 

DO YOU KNOW WHAT THIS MEANS?

IT MEANS..................

THAT THIS DAM THING DOESN'T WORK!

 

I realize that Palin is MILFy hot, but hot enough to turn a Republican woman gay? Who is this Republican woman of which you speak, and who will be turning her out? Does she live in a swing state? As you have obviously personally polled her to gather her true feelings, do you still have her number?

Why on earth would people be ashamed enough of their own opinions to not want to voice it to independent pollsters, in a manner statistically significant and differentiated from supporters of the opposite candidate, unless they consider their positions shameful? I can think of only one (possibly widely) held view about Obama that many would not want to admit to having; his slightly left-of-center ideology and laughable "terrorist" association are not it.

Your fifteen point plan foretelling the death of American scientific polling boils down to this: you hope that "enough white undecided voters" are racist, racist enough that they'll vote despite the clouded consciences your skewed interpretation of independent polling suggests, and vote for the candidate you happen to prefer.

 

FYI, the plural of woman isn't woman. It's women.

 

You respond to a strawman. Read the previous paragraph again. I didn't say that you are a racist. I say that you are implicitly predicting that (duplicitous) racists turn out in force to the polls. Your fifteen points do not otherwise adequately explain why there would be so drastic a difference between polling and the (to be determined) actual results. Though you dance around it, the only plausible explanation for such a gap, if one indeed exists, is the effect of an undercurrent of racism on the "undecided white" electorate.

To elaborate: please dig up all the polls showing statistically significant overpolling for Shirley Chisholm in 1972 or Jesse Jackson in 1984 & 1988 or Al Sharpton in 2004 as a result of respondents lying/hanging up because they wished "to avoid any racist labels." Unless you consider Shapton's 2% overpolling, you'll be hard pressed to find many. Polls from The Onion do not count. Wishing to "avoid any racist labels" has never in the past been a reason to lie to (or avoid) pollsters. Neither has opposition to leftist policies or perceived trustworthiness (though both topics are, also, usually included in those selfsame polls). Why would this start in this election?

 

no sir. As of a couple days ago, he has been up by 3% for nearly a month. Now its back to a near tie.

 

No doubt, if Obama loses, the polls will be looked at as garbage.

DD

 

Oh absolutely - the race does appear to be tightening. But my point was that the polling does reflect that McCain has caught up, so that wouldn't be a failure of polling if McCain were to win. The failure of the polling would be if Obama or McCain win NC by a substantial margin, because the polling predicts it will be close either way.