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Why We are Witnessing the Death of Modern Day Polling

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by Old Man Rock, Nov 2, 2008.

  1. Old Man Rock

    Old Man Rock Contributing Member

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    Pollster’s models for predicting this election appear so off skewed that everyone will have to rethink how to get truer results for now on. You have to look at the internal clues in the pollsters to see this holds true. I’ll give you 15 reasons why I believe the polls are crap. And you would be better off polling a group of first graders who are more inclined to speak the truth.

    1. The Rasmussen Poll shows 25% of all Democrats in PA are switching to McCain. I believe this will hold true for similar states like Ohio, Iowa, North Carolina, Indiana etc. Obama can not win with only 75% of his party’s support. Rasmussen has shown a major tightening in a state that Obama once lead by 15%. Gov Rendell begged Obama to come back to the state because it was close. Obama did immediately go there and the Clintons and Biden as well visited but after that the Rasmussen is showing the race tightened even more. And now Obama has no more scheduled events there and Mccain has 3 more.

    2. The reason PA is significant is because Obama’s camp has admitted spending 21 million for polling. Now I know polling is expensive but you have to believe spending that much money gives you some voice in how these polls are conducted for the public. And now Obama knows PA is a lost cause and has pulled out. If that is true than that is a game changer. A democratic aide for Clinton and now for Obama who has jump shipped said that Obama is controlling the pollsters in hopes that repubs will be disheartened and less likely to show up on election day. But it appears the Republicans are finally seeing through it. Just last week Palin had a rally in a smalltown in PA with over 20,000 people in the stands and disappointed people lined up outside. Biden had a rally in another PA town not far away and only 700 people showed up. Oops.

    3. The final round of Mason-Dixon polls has Obama enjoying small leads in the red states that would deliver him the presidency, but he's below 50% in each and there are enough white undecided voters to leave some too close to call. Colorado: Obama 49, McCain 44, Undecided 4 Florida: Obama 47, McCain 45, Undecided 7 Nevada: Obama 47, McCain 43, Undecided 8 Pennsylvania: 47, McCain 43, Undecided 9 Virginia: Obama 47, McCain 44, Undecided 9 Ohio: McCain 47, Obama 45, Undecided 6 Missouri: McCain 47, Obama 46, Undecided 5 North Carolina: McCain 49, Obama 46, Undecided 5. As I said I believe all the polls are misskewed and McCain is actually ahead in all of those states with the exception of Maybe Colorado.

    4. TIPP, the most accurate pollster in 2004, shows serious movement in McCain's favor, with the overall margin at 2.1 points. That’s with 9 percent undecided mostly white voters. There is every indication they will strongly swing McCains way election day.

    5. An AP report has 15% of voters undecided and a large majority are white. The consensus is Undecideds will go strongly for McCain. Obama’s camp says there number is closer to 10% but either way that is much more than the pollsters are showing. Again proving their numbers are whacked. And probably there are a lot of PUMA’s out there.

    6. A Chicago Newspaper says, “If internet searches and click throughs were votes, Democratic Illinois Sen. Barack Obama would beat Republican Arizona Sen. John McCain in a landslide. That would be a good thing if what the were searching for was all good. But many of the keywords they are searching for are phrases like Obama birth, Obama and Ayers, Obama Acorn. The queries are more negative in nature. And what the find is info that they would never hear on MSM. Obama has gone out of his way to buy negative keyword traffic so when the search these words they pop up on one of Obama’s sights that give a positive spin. Still the independents are searching and what they are finding is mostly bad for Obama.

    7. Another AP/Yahoo sneakily show the true pulse of American by asking voters first were they liberal, moderate, or conservative and 80% said they were moderate to conservative. They then asked Then they asked "How liberal, moderate, or conservative do you think Barack Obama is?" ANswer: Extremely conservative 3 Moderately conservative 3 Slightly conservative 3 Moderate 17 Slightly liberal 16 Moderately liberal 26 Extremely liberal 29 Refused / Not Answered 3. 80% of America want a Moderate-Conservative President and only 26% of the people polled think Obama fits that bill. Where as for McCain 85% thought he was the right choice.

    8. A recent Poll shows Obama ahead with the Jews even more than Kerry in 2004 and that just can’t be. There is no way with all of Obama’s Palestinian ties and statements of sitting down with Iran that he gets more of their support than Kerry and in all likelihood will get considerable less. Polls are whacked again. The same thing with the Catholic support which Obama has been working hard on but now priest all over America are pleading with there parishioners to vote against the most pro abortion candidate ever. The Catholic vote represents 25% of the electorate.

    9. A gallup Poll from June states, “When given a choice about how government should address the numerous economic difficulties facing today's consumer, Americans overwhelmingly—by 84% to 13%—prefer that the government focus on improving overall economic conditions and the jobs situation in the United States as opposed to taking steps to distribute wealth more evenly among Americans”. 84% of Americans oppose Spread the Wealth principles and now Joe the Plumber has nailed Obama.

    10. Obama says John Mccain is accusing him of being a socialist because he shared his toys with his friends. But the truth is Obama didn’t even share his toys to his family. His Aunt who he so lovingly talked about in his book is living in a slumhouse. His Grandma and half brother in Kenya or living in rundown shacks. And Obama rather than share his wealth with them is helping to redistribute wealth to ACORN.

    11. Hillary Democrats still undecided. After Hillary announced her defeat 58% of her support moved to Obama but that hasn’t changed since then. Many of those Hillary supporters are showing up on the polls as undecided and on election night will either not show up or vote for McCain.

    12. Polling the first graders. Nickelodeon took an unscientific online poll of children and Obama won by two points. The poll is “telling” because children’s preferences are shaped mostly by their parents’ opinions. Now, you can’t read much into this but this online poll of kids had Kerry winning by 14 points in 2004 and that is a pretty good Idea how this poll normally leans.

    13. The Palin effect is much stronger than anyone imagines. Republican woman will come out in droves. Expect to see the highest turnout among woman ever.

    14. Expect to hear a lot of people screaming Bradley Effect, Bradley effect, Oh the Humanity. It’s not the Bradley effect, which suggested people were lying to pollsters. They aren’t lying they are just refusing to answer. But if they did answer what you would hear is Americans and Joe the Plumber simply don’t trust the words coming out Obama’s mouth, think he has too many crooked terrorist friends and just don't like Obama's far-left policies. But the liberal media especially MSNBC will be running around like chickens with their heads chopped off. Man I can’t wait to watch Olberman squirm. That’s must see TV. won’t want to accept the blame of there stupidity and left wing agenda, so the Bradley effect will be the scapegoat.

    15. Finally forget all the polls. You only need look at where they candidates are campaigning to gage a true reading of the close. It’s a fact at this stage of the game no candidates is going to visit a state it thinks is locked up or it thinks is hopeless. Why is Obama in Iowa and Colorado and Pennsylvania in the last days of his campaign. Those states are supposed to be landslides. And why is McCain spending so much time in PA and making stops New Mexico and Iowa and New Hampshire. Those states are lost causes for McCain if you believe the polls. It’s clear Obama and McCain better intel than anyone else out there. It won’t be a blowout and it looks like both camps think OHIO is the key. That is the one place nobody can predict because of all the questionable voter registrations.

    Update: Pew went from a 15 point lead for Obama to a 6 point lead. Either there polling is majorly whacked or they adjusted there party ID. I would bet the latter and I think we will know what kind of race we have early if Obama loses PA. Feel free to blast away and don't ask me for links most of this is my words but of course I got all over the internet. You'll have to search yourself.
     
  2. Major

    Major Member

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    Ignoring all the factual inaccuracies in the above, did you really just use a bunch of poll numbers to demonstrate why the polls are inaccurate? :confused:
     
  3. mc mark

    mc mark Contributing Member

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    So you openly admit plagiarism.

    next
     
  4. DonnyMost

    DonnyMost clean your room bucko

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    Why are only 2 or 3 of these points about "modern day polling" and how its dead?

    It reads like this...

    1. Wahhhhhh

    2. WAHHHHHHHH

    3. Speculation

    4. Conjecture

    5. Off-topic

    6. Poll stuff

    7. Ayers/Wright

    8. WWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHH
     
  5. Old Man Rock

    Old Man Rock Contributing Member

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    The point is all of the polls are wrong in favor of Obama. You can't trust any poll when they ask the question who will you vote for. Republicans and Democrats for McCain won't answer. So whatever they show you, with exception of the AP Poll that indirectly asks the question, you should adjust to McCain's size. Also the second ap poll states 15% are undecided and Obama's camp disagree and say it is 10%. Well 10% is more than most polls are showing and is enough to turn the election. But there is no point in debating now. On tuesday night we will know the truth. And If I am wrong you are welcome to come back here then and throw it my face.
     
    #5 Old Man Rock, Nov 2, 2008
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2008
  6. weslinder

    weslinder Contributing Member

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    I think there's a lot of questions about some of the polling methods and their accuracy, but there's no way to know about it until the votes are counted. Let's talk about it on Wednesday.
     
  7. mc mark

    mc mark Contributing Member

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    No way man! ALL of the polls are wrong in favor of Obama. You can't trust any poll when they ask the question who will you vote for.

    You can't argue with that!
     
  8. Rashmon

    Rashmon Contributing Member

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    It must be really hard to shift mental gears from this type of self-delusion into the normal reality of day-to-day living and work come Monday.

    I don't even want to hazard a guess what it will be like on Wednesday...
     
  9. Roxfan73

    Roxfan73 Rookie

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    This thread is GREAT NEWS!!! FOR JOHN MCCAIN!!!!
     
  10. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    Amen. To predict "the death of modern day polling" before Tuesday is silly. I predict modern day polling will continue strong and so will those who grab every straw to say the polls are wrong when they don't like the numbers.
     
  11. yaoluv

    yaoluv Member

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    So to summarize, there is no way Mccain could lose therefore the polls must be incorrect.

    Brilliant!
     
  12. Trader_Jorge

    Trader_Jorge King of the D&D, The Legend, #1 Ranking

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    The polls have been skewed to Obama to fool the public by making him appear to be a legitimate candidate. He is not a legitimate candidate. He is a fraud. He is a front man for a very dangerous, extreme political culture.
     
  13. updawg

    updawg Member

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    tel me more Mulder
     
  14. VesceySux

    VesceySux Contributing Member

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    Question for OMR: Polls indicate that early voting (in record numbers) is overwhelmingly in favor of Obama. Are these polls wrong, too?
     
  15. Old Man Rock

    Old Man Rock Contributing Member

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    What polls? There are only a few that I have heard of and they are saying that things are much like the Kerry Bush race. If you have something different please list it. Now there are reports of how many republicans verse Democrats are voting and that is definitely in favor of Dems. But that doesn't show you how many Dems are voting for Obama. Remember the rasmussen reported 75% of Dems in PA are voting for McCain.
     
  16. weslinder

    weslinder Contributing Member

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    I think you missed that by 50%.
     
  17. Space Ghost

    Space Ghost Contributing Member

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    When it comes to politics, I believe all parties should have a fair chance. In this particular election, i have frowned upon McCains tactics. I have been disappointed in how the media has been overly in favor of Obama.

    As a voter, I want to know the truth about each party. Everytime I turn on the news, I don't want to hear why obama should be president. Everytime I open my mailbox, I don't want to read why obama shouldn't be president.

    If the polls are truly being skewed, and we will find out on election day if obama is does not win by the 6% that he has been holding, then I will lose all faith in the democratic party and especially obama.
     
  18. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Contributing Member

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    I guess we'll find out in two days won't we. The question is whether you will man up and admit that all of this was just thinktank rhetoric if you end up on the short end of the stick. I'll come back to this thread and congratulate you on being right if you are.

    In my opinion the race IS closer than the polls make it sound, but not because the polls are way off. I think it will be closer for the simple fact that the "undecided voters" that keep coming up in polls are really McCain voters too embarrassed to admit they are not voting Obama (perhaps because of their prior Democratic track record, which would hint at the real reason they don't want to vote for him). So you can just take all that unused % and add it to McCain's tally.

    The other factor is one that always happens to Democrats, which is young people saying they intend to vote and then not voting. But that has nothing to do with this particular election; that is endemic among all elections.
     
  19. DaDakota

    DaDakota Contributing Member
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    Space,

    Why would you think the polls are skewed? They have been VERY accurate in these last few years.

    Why do you now think they are skewed?

    DD
     
  20. Harrisment

    Harrisment i had suffice

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    Early voting in 2004 heavily favored Bush actually, as early voting numbers have almost always favored Republicans. This is the first year that the Dem candidate seems to have a clear edge based on early voting results.
     

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