Ric- Afganistan is holding onto and protecting a known terrorist. They have 1 choice stop protecting and funding terrorists or start a plan to rebuild their country. Maybe compared to the US they don't have much to destroy but once their ar no jobs, schools and houses left, and no allies left the people of Afganistan will understand it is the governments and terrorists fault. At the least they will kick Lauden out. Yes you are right it willb e a tough battle against terrorists, but if you destroy their bases and homes, cut off their funding, kill their leaders, turn their neighbors and friends against them their is nothing for them to do. If the global community sets out to destroy terrorism then the manpower and knowledge we will have will destroy them. THey may be hard to find but if they have absolutely no friends left (knowing they will be killed if they help them) then thjey are left to fight a battle with less money, less weapons, less alliances to protect them. So yes it will be a tough battle and there will be alot of collateral damage, but these countries that support terrorism will be brought to their knees. Same thing to the individuals who support these terrorists. They will be torn from their homes and stand to face the global army vs terrorism. You are also right about being alot of Covert operations, but we will find out who is involved and they will be taken care of.
let me ask a practical question: how do you go about attacking afghanistan? we have few allies in that area, we have nowhere to mobolize troop and/or air strikes -- it's a desolate, remaote country. powell has acted quickly to try and secure pakitstan's support, and that could possibly serve as a home base, but attacking afghnaistan is risky, and snatching bin laden will prove difficult. after all, he's eluded capture for close to a decade. he has the money to flee anywhere in the world, and a band of brothers to help his flight. which is when they're the most dangerous. bin laden is not the queen bee -- his hive doesn't die if he does. in fact, one could argue killing him would only incite the hive. you have to understand: their hatred is rooted in their religious beliefs. bin laden funds them, serves as the leader and focal point, but these cells act indepedently -- they do not need his approval if their acts are designed to do harm upon the west. the depth of this threat is staggering, and not at all cut and dried. there really is no simple response...
Ric, There certainly is no simple response...did you read Treeman's excellent post on what he believes will happen? If not here it is. ______________________ I have been studying the terrorism for over 5 years and am pretty "up" on it, and I have written two separate papers on the subject that I know were passed on to defense officials via an organization that was contracted to study the problem in 1999. Before I write an assessment here I must say that while I've been predicting this type of attack for several years, I am still absolutely shocked to see it happen. I had thought it would be a biological attack, not a conventional attack, that would kill this many people. But that is a nuance. I am still absolutely shocked, even though I knew that something like this would happen. I posted these assessments on another message board, so I'll just repost it here: I know that we Americans are pis*ed off right now, but I just hope that we will have the fortitude to stay focused and motivated throughout the "sustained campaign" effort. I for one will have no problem with that, but I have concerns that many other Americans will be able to do it. I don't think that many Americans really understand what's coming. Yes, we are going to take Bin Laden out. Yes, we are going to attack Afghanistan, likely actually invade it with the help of the Russians. Most Americans understand that and support it. But it is not going to stop there. Iraq is going to be reinvaded. We know for a fact that Saddam has again been stockpiling anthrax - and where do you think it's intended to end up. I've been saying we have to reinvade for years, and now it seems that everyone else might finally be in the mood to go along with that. But it won't stop there either. Libya has built a chemical weapons facility that is absolutely impervious to conventional air attacks. Gadafhi is reportedly scared s*itless now, so he might cooperate and dismantle it, but if he doesn't then we WILL destroy it. There are only two ways to do this: a ground raid/invasion, or a "spiked" nuclear weapon (Perry confirmed this weapon's existence several years ago). That facility WILL be destroyed, one way or another. But it won't stop there. Iran is a known terrorist supporter, and has at least 3 terrorist training bases. It also supports Hizbollah in Lebanon and the occupied territories. Those training bases will be wiped out. If the Iranian govt doesn't do it, then we will. They will be told as such. If they get in the way, then they will be regarded as hostile and dealt with accordingly. Syria is another terrorism supporter, also with numerous training bases. The same situation as with Iran. The Sudan is also in this same boat - it has bases, and they will be destroyed whether the Sudanese govt cooperates or not. North Korea as well. Yemen as well. Algeria as well. Even our allies in ther SW Asia and Africa - Saudi, Kuwait, UAE, Jordan, Egypt, Pakistan - will feel a tremendous amount of pressure to crack down on terrorism, and if they do not fully cooperate, then they are in trouble as well. In short, everyone will probably be given an opportunity to renounce (and take concrete action against) terrorism and jump on our boat. For example, if Iran agrees and starts dismantling those camps and arresting everyone who had anything to do with them or Hizbollah, then they will be safe, but if they don't then they will be put on our target list and will be dealt with in the harshest terms. If these countries fail to cooperate then they will be attacked. Needless to say, Al Queda, Islamic Jihad, PFLP, DFLP, PLO, Fatah, Hizbollah, Hamas, and the like - all of the known terrorist organizations - are dead meat. We're going after all of them, not just Bin Laden and Al Queda. I hope America is ready for one hell of a war. ---------- Every nation will have to be dealt with on an individual basis, and only nations who actually aid the terrorists will be attacked. No state is aiding the IRA - no, Ireland is not helping them. We are going to help the Brits take them out now, where we used to pretty much turn a blind eye towards them. Also, the Orange Order might be in trouble, too... But that's just one example. Also, I suspect that many - if not most or all - of the nations I mentioned will end up cooperating with us. The Taliban and Iraq will not cooperate, so I'd expect to see them be erased in due time. Most everyone else is a little scared now, so I would suspect they will start dismantling their camps and arresting people as soon as we tell them to. Just IMHO, that is. ---------- Now I'm going to understate the situation a little when I say this... But in this conflict every state will be given an opportunity to side with us, and if they want to, fine, but if they don't then they will be in trouble. That is the most simplistic way I can put it. Also, there's been talk about a declaration of war, but what most people don't understand is that in such a declaration it is not necessary to specifically name individual targets, ie. Iraq, Afghanistan, etc. The actual wording will probably be something along the lines of declaring war on "terrorists everywhere who threaten the security and freedom of the world, as well as those who support them". It will be purposefully vague, because what we don't want to do in the coming fight is constrain ourselves regarding whatever actions we might have to take. We want to retain the flexibility to do whatever needs to be done. Now, I don't want anyone to think that we're going to be declaring war on multiple countries - we are not going to do that. We are going to look at groups all over the globe on a case-by-case basis, and make a judgment when we get there. Some will be attacked, while some will not. It will be a selective process. I would suspect that the insurgents in Afghanistan, for example, will not be attacked, since they don't threaten the "security and freedom" of the world... ---------- I hinted on this earlier, but now I'd like to elaborate: the Russians are about to become our best friends. There's been alot made of the fact that we don't have alot of humint on the ground (in Afghanistan). Make no mistake that when we retaliate (it's not an "if" question) that there will be ground forces involved. It's tempting to say that we can just put in some Special Forces, do the job, and leave, but that is unrealistic. It may take several weeks or even months to find Bin Laden and annihilate the entire Afghani terrorism-support network that is in place. And it might take several years to break the whole thing up. We might need help. The Russians have a wealth of information about their command structure, hiding places, materials caches, caves, etc, and also happen to have more spies in the area than we do. They've also got thousands of Speznaz who were wounded there and/or have lost buddies there and would really like to get an opportunity to take some revenge. We can even help them to pay their troops, many of which stopped recieving paychecks a long time ago... Do not be surprised if you see more than the Russians' just getting out of the way in what is about to happen. Try not to be shocked when you see Russian and American infantry actually covering each others' backs in a massive ground war. It's happened before. This is World War 3, and the Russians are going to be our best allies. And I am not overstating this __________________________ I actually think he is pretty much right on the nose with what we are going to do. DaDakota
DaDakota- Thank you for that great post from Treeman. Ric- Pakistan will let us use their airbases, i have no question about it. Our initial attacks, like our recent attacks will be massive air attacks to disable anything that could be used against us. That will let everyone know how serious we are. Pakistan will let us march right thru to get to Afganistan. Also Bin Laden has the money and the wisdom. No his organization doesn't necessarily die with him, but if we freeze his financial accounts, scare off all of his friends who don't wan to die, eventuially kill the snake, then his followers can come and fight us with sticks and rocks or whatever weapons they can find. But our attacks will weaken their will and without money they will run out of weapons and run out of their mobility (no money means ythey can't be mobile in vehicles). With no contacts they will have no way to get anything. Once the war starts noone will want the terrorists in their country. Not only will they be fighting the great army but also their neighbors who are trying to maintain their own safety. I don't expect their religious beliefs to change, but they had either be able to lie low, and pray noone who gets caught mentions their name, or they will die fighting. Even if they remain quiet they will not be able to be very organized. If they are suspected of terrorism they will be even more closely watched if they associate with other known or potential terrorists. IMO- No organization, no moeny, no support, no friends, no where to stay is not an army but rather people trying to survive in the new world where they know in their hearts they may someday be caught.
interesting indeed -- thanks for posting it. it seems to fall between your preferred advocacy and mine -- it's not an all out assault, it's not definitive, and we take measure to get people in line first before blindly attacking. i would advocate economic sanctions first, before attacking if they do not comply, but... one small thing, however -- i disagree russia will be a help to us in afghanistan. in fact, russia was obliterated in afghanistan in the late 70's/early 80's and we aided the afghans' cause, ironically, by recruiting, funding and training bin laden. russia was at a severe disadvantge on the afghan land, and paid dearly for their inexperience. granted, they have more experience with the terrain than we do, but afghanistan scares me -- it scares me because it alsmost certainly calls for a ground attack. there's nothing to hit there in an air strike -- no WTC, so to speak, to deaden their resolve. the other aspect to his post that bothers me is the concentrated effort abroad -- again, i think that makes us vulnerable here to whatever factions might be among us already. seeing the diabolical nature of their attack tuesday, would it shock you to learn their ultimate plan is to draw our attention abroad to make ourselves more vulnerable stateside? scary...
