Yes I agree on some of your points, they are valid but this is how I see it 1.) postups are rare now. so the volume of post ups is incomparable with the number of outside or 3 point shots. Post ups are more valuable on some of these uncalculated factors a.) they wear your opponent down 2.) it causes more fouls 3.) rebounding can be advantage because you are taller inside if you have a small guarding. 2.) a 3 point shot is more efficient if the shooter is open. If he does it in isolation then it is harder then it has a lower fg. shooting an outside shot is easier than a post up thats true but only if you are free. if you are big posting a small, you're at an advantage so it is easier and the FG is higher because you are nearer the goal even if it is contested 3.) i think posting a big against a small will create more outside shots because of the double teaming similar to a guard getting free from a pick. It is the same concept. It creates a lot of open shots if you move around. that's why we switched to small ball before so everyone can switch and it will be harder for them to drive and in turn more isolations. thats what we did to golden state before. but we dont have that capability anymore. thats why i prefer tall ball now because our bigs can post and shoot. a luxury we dont have before. 4.) yes some of our guards before can break down the defense but our opponents are guarding them to prevent both shooting and driving. They can sometime drive or shoot. That is the basic stance of defense. What I am suggesting since we have bigs guarding small is to switch all then defend them that will lure them to shoot an outside shot instead of driving so we back off a little to prevent the drive. it maybe is a bad idea but it can encourage our opponents to do more isolations and less team play and hope that they will miss outside shots. We can't guard both the drive and the outside shot. We have to choose one because we are at a disadvantage in speed since we are bigger but we will have an advantage on offense because we are bigger and we can hopefully shoot a higher FG because we are doing more post ups and our outside shots are more open because the bigs get doubled eventually. Again, this will only work if all our players can shoot. We can't have one Capela type player and the other four can shoot. 5.) Added note : lets say we have 3 bigs in the game. We don't need to do a pick if we dont have to because at least one big is already at an advantage in size against theirs. This will only work if our bigs can post. Right now, we have that with Wood, Olynyk and Tate(eventhough he is a semi tall). If we can add one tall player with that qualification then I think its the way to go because I don't really trust our guards. That's why I am open to the idea of drafting Mobley eventhough I am not sure if he can shoot or post up.
Does it surprise you to know that on postups, the current Rockets are more likely to turn the ball over than they are to draw a foul? Also, the leading rebounding team (Utah) is dead last in the league in postups. Postups don't equate to more rebounding. What does any of that have to do with the Rockets? Are you under the impression that they are taking lots of contested 3s and not many open 3s? They aren't. Here's the numbers: Very Closely Guarded ( defender < 2 ft) - 0.2 attempts/game - 38.2 3pt% ( oddly it's the best we shoot from any of the 4 categories). Closely Guarded ( defender between 2 and 4 ft) - 2.8 attempts/game - 20.1 3pt% Open (defender 4 to 6 ft away) - 16.5 attempts/game - 32.4 3pt% Wide Open (defender > 6 ft away) - 19.9 attempts/game - 36.4 3pt% That means that we average 3 contested 3pt shots/game and we average 36.4 open 3pt shots/game. Getting open 3's isn't the issue. As already mentioned, getting open shots isn't an issue for the Rockets. It's their ability to make the open shots that is a problem. I'm not sure what isolations have to do with it. For the last few years, the Rockets isolated way more than any other team and were always near the top of the league in generating open shots. It's not a matter of iso or not. What matters is who is doing it. Harden is a master at it as is CP3, Lillard and many other guys. Another problem is that our bigs aren't good passers. So your solution is to back off and allow the opponent open 3s? There's too many good shooters on the good teams. Those guys shoot really high percentages on open 3s. Giving the opponent high percentage open 3s and then trying to counter that with 2 point post ups is a recipe for disaster. We already have that? Wood shoots 44% on postups. Olynyk turns that ball over on 22.7% of his post ups. Tate is even worse, turning it over on 24.1% of his postups. Olynyk is a good player and he's versital. Tate is serviceable but if you're trying to run your offense through KO and Tate they you're going to be competing for the top pick in the draft for years to com. You have to take efficient shots, that's today's game. What's an efficient shot is different for different players. The Rockets are one of the worst post up teams in the league. When you're weak at something, doing it more doesn't guarentee that you get better. If it did, Ben Simmons would be hoisting up 10 3's per game. Woods shoots 44% on postups and he shoots 38.2% on 3 pointers. His 3 point percentage equates to shooting 57.3% on two point shots. Why would you want to have him increase the volume of the one that he's inefficient at? The whole idea is to increase the volume of the efficient shots, not of the inefficient ones. Our guys are bad post up players but luckily they aren't doing it that often. If you ramp up their post up attempts, then there's a good chance their number go down further. It's similar to the guy who shoots 40% on 3s but is only taking 1 or 2 per game when the situation is perfect. Take that same guy and put him in a role where he has to produce points in a higher volume and his percentage is likely going down because he's no longer to only shoot with the best opportunities. That is the genius of Harden, he can ramp up the volume and still maintain ridiculous efficiency.
Wood lacks strength for post-ups so I agree there. But a good PG would know how to utilize pick-n-roll and create space for good shooter like Wood to attempt mid-range shots. If you watched the games you will notice most of his mid-range game has come from him trying to attempt shots on drives, which he has struggled, rather than catch and shoot. Wall is by far the worst PG for Wood to excel and KPJ is just not there yet. And the point I am trying to make is if the coach can work to improve a player's game. Wood hardly ever takes any mid-range (catch n shoot) shots to even analyze statistically because plays are either designed for alley-oops or 3s with this Rockets team or for him to simply just drive-in. He does not even get to attempt 20-25 shots per game for arguably being the best offensive player in the roster. This season is doomed anyway so why not work with the players to improve their game? I used to watch Ryno play during the NO days and he had a killer step-back mid-range game. It was never utilized under MDA with his 3-ball strategy.
Love this discussion with you. I am learning because you are backing up with data. I am with you on some pints but it is ok to disagree. For now, do you like the offensive and defensive schemes of the Rockets? For me , not really. It is better but it is just a slightly better offense and adjustment than MDA. I really don't see much difference. There's still a lot of isolation but I can give Silas a break for all that happen this season but I don't think there will be drastic change with the offense or defense. I am with small ball too but only with the right personnel. If you switch Wall for Westbrook in last year's playoff. I think we would have a better showing but we are not going to win it. That is small ball with the wrong personnel. How did the Lakers win? yes defense but offense how? In my opinion, they posted and pick roll AD and Lebron. Even PJ had a hard time with AD. They were better in rebounds. Did the Lakers have a good percentage in 3? They were considered the worst 3 point shooters among the playoff teams but they had open shot generated from mismatches. The only mismatch we can do was Westbrook on caruso or whoever. So Tall ball can work because all of them can shoot. Thats why Howard and Mcgee did not play that much. I am not just talking about purely posting up. We can do mismatches using the pick and roll. What I am saying is taking advantage of our height in any way. If we have bigs from 3 to 5, imagine a pick and roll for a 3 and 5 which can be Tate and Wood and not the usual PG and center. but even if it is a PG and center, we should do it always. What usually happens is when the switch happens, you rarely see Wall or KPJ pass down low. They see their mismatches as guards as more of an advantage. Actually Wood is more of a face up player in the post but still it is considered a post up. Wood is shooting more 3's because he is not getting more touches inside. All I want is to post up against a mismatch. I am not counting a post up without a mismatch. That's not the point of this thread. I assume your data is for every post up. Do you have data for Wood postups against mismatches and even for Olynyk? I assume the percentage will favor them if there is a mismatch. It should be segmented. I like your data about the 3s but I won't really consider it as the defining factor because they should shoot threes when they are not guarded. Of course, there would be more unguarded 3 point shots than not because you want to shoot it unguarded. What specific offensive scheme do you think our 3's were unguarded just by watching their games? If I answer my own question, i assume we get it from loose balls, coming from rebounds, maybe fastbreak but I think most it will be coming from drives from an isolation because I think we really dont have plays other than a simple pick and roll or isolations. Where I want the 3's will come is from post ups, pick and roll from the bigs. The only time we get double teamed is when someone drives in the lane. This is an instinct of the defense to collapse but is this really considered a good offensive play? no, it basically is just a talent move. Did you ever see Wall or KPJ being doubled in iso or after a pick? No, because no one needs to. They are not a big of a threat. I may understand it if it is Harden but it never made us closer to a championship with that style. The reason we were close in 2018 because we had an elite defense and CP3 was there. We can be the west version of the Bucks two years ago but even better because Giannis cant shoot. Yes today's NBA is not about post ups anymore but it does not mean we cant use it if it fits our personnel. Can we be like Hakeem's Rockets? Possibly because everyone can shoot. Is the post up game unguardable? No by a long shot. We know how Seattle defended us and we did not win a game against them in the playoffs. They just doubled Hakeem and we got toast but Hakeem was the only one that knows how to post back then. They tried to post up Horry but he was not good enough, not even drexler. But our team now will be different. Our bigs can post smalls and will learn to pass from double teams. That's the goal and uncontested 3's will happen more as a result and better rebounding. We'll hope for a better defense if we guard the paint more so hopefully a lesser FG percentage of our opponent. That's what I mean by the Tall ball. If we had better guards and a better record, I would not be talking about the Tall ball. But great discussing with you,aelliott. Stay safe everyone.
The current squad simply doesn't have enough talent. They wouldn't be successful in any system. The NBA is a talent driven league. You need superstars to win but that's obviously the hardest thing to acquire. In my opinion, until you have a star to build around the the system is irrelevant. You aren't going to win without the superstar and if you do get the superstar and they don't fit the system then you use a different system. The Rockets need to do whatever they can to get their next superstar. That's going to be difficult and it will likely require some luck. Even with the worst record, our chances of landing the first pick is 14%. If we get the first pick, there's no guarantee that Cade is a star. Nowdays the draft isn't a sure thing. That sounds bleak, I know, but at least you do have a chance. That's better than being middle of the road and having almost no chance. Lots of teams have been waiting a long time to get their next star. Even with the first pick in the draft they haven't been able to get that superstar. Let's hope that the wait for the Rockets isn't as long. As for last year's playoffs, I'd disagree that we would have done better with Wall instead of WB. WB was playing well last year but in the playoffs he was coming off Covid and then he hurt his calf and he wasn't the same guy. WB, for all his bad habits, provided some things that Harden didn't. Last year, when healthy, he shot very few 3s and attacked the rim. He was also a one man fast break. He could also go rebound with the big guys. I don't see anything that Wall does that would provide things that Harden didn't. When we went uber-small and spread the floor so much, it was really difficult to contain WB. Those extra factors that he provided, along with the fact that he was more efficient than this years Wall, Porter or Oladipo, would have helped us more ( IMO). Unfortunately, once he hurt his calf then he lost much of his explosion and couldn't play the same way.
I'll agree that Wall isn't good at delivering the ball inside. His assists mostly come from swinging the ball on the perimeter, drivin inside and kicking to the outside and in transition. CP3 and Harden were both really good at delivering the ball inside. I don't think you're going to see anyone getting many catch and shoot midrange shots nowdays. Everyone is trying to spread the floor and create room to drive. Wood hanging closer in just takes away some of that space that they are trying to create and pulls extra defenders closer to the basket. Wood has been horrible from midrange. You are correct that he hasn't attempted many catch and shoot midrange shots but I would point out that he's 3 for 15 on the ones that he has attempted this year. Not sure that's going to be an advantage over what he's already doing. As for Anderson, I posted his midrange numbers in another thread. He's never been a good midrange shooter. If I remember correctly , his high prior to joining the Rockets was one season at 46%. The rest of his seasons were low 40s to down in the 30s. Midrange is an inefficient shot. That's why every season there are only 3 to 5 guys in the entire league shooting 50% from midrange ( usually led by CP3 and Middleton). Hard to justify those percentages on two point shots when the league average for 3s is usually over 36%.
There's a certain subset of people for whom there will never be a reason not to shoot more midrange shots, for the simple reason that it's not really done, therefore it would be worth it to do! Doesn't matter if the Rockets have the best or the worst record in the league or that literally nobody plays that way anymore. The answer is always..more midrange.
