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Why Morey is still a genius - or how Houston's free agency unravelled

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by trugoy, Aug 14, 2014.

  1. trugoy

    trugoy Member

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    I want to try to explain what happened in free agency this year because I don't believe the conventional story of the Rocket's free agency is accurate, because it assumes that Daryl Morey and the entire Rocket's front office are idiots.

    First, let's recap what the media's narrative of the Rocket's Free agency is;

    1. Morey traded Asik, Lin and declined the option on Parsons in order to chase Bosh, Melo, Lebron and then match Parsons when they signed.

    2. Once Morey realised that Parsons was going to be overpaid, he went to option B, Trevor Ariza and let Parsons walk.

    It's a great story of Morey taking risks and coming up short but I don't believe it's accurate because in order to believe the media's narrative you have to believe the following;

    a) The Rocket's front office did not know what Parson's market value was, AND they did not know that Dallas was going to offer Parson's close to the max.

    This is absurd, since the Rocket's have a great front office, what is more, Gersson Rosas, a key right hand man for Morey knows the Dallas front office well since he was hired as their GM. In order to believe the Morey was surprised about Parsons max offer, you have to believe the the Rockets essentially let Parsons go into restricted free agency without a clear idea of his market value from one of the front offices that the Rockets know very well.

    I refuse to believe that the Rockets are incompetent, and that they actually know that Parsons would fetch a near max offer.

    So if the Rockets knew that Parsons would fetch a near max offer, why did they let Parsons go into RFA status? Especially since they knew they wouldn't match.

    b) The Rocket's signed Trevor Ariza in a panic signing once the max offer for Parson's arrived and they determined that they weren't going to match.

    This is also absurd because Ariza's contract is a non-standard contract declining contract, he was in demand by multiple teams, and he signed very quickly after Parson's offer sheet came in. Trevor Ariza is not going to wait around for the Rockets to make him an offer, he had many options to announce a signing prior to the Rockets. To me, this means that the Ariza signing had been negotiated well in advance of the actual annoucement, meaning that regardless of what happened, Ariza was coming.

    If you read all the Rocket's moves here is what their actual plan was;

    1. Parsons was let go into restricted free agency because the team NEVER intended to resign him, regardless of whether Bosh, Melo or Lebron came, he was always going to be replaced by Ariza.

    2. The Rockets knew that they had a very small chance at attracting a big name Free Agent, I think Morey said it was close to 5% chance. Their plan A was to sign and trade Parsons for a trade exception.

    Here is how it would work;

    The Asik - Ariza trade would still go down as per usual, so we would have Ariza + the NOP lottery pick.

    We would sign and trade Parsons to Dallas for a $15m trade exception.

    The Rockets would then have a lottery pick AND a $15m trade exception to go after their third star.

    So when the Rockets planned their free agency; in their minds there was only two alternatives;

    1. They manage to sign Lebron/Melo/Bosh and then sign and trade Parsons, use the exception they get to sign and trade Ariza. Rockets end up with Lebron/Melo/Bosh + Ariza(using part of the $15m Parsons trade exception) + $7m trade exception(left over from Parsons trade exception unused) + NOP lottery pick;

    2. They strike out in Free Agency - 95% likely to happen, replace Parsons with Ariza, get a $15m trade exception and a Lottery Pick from NOP, they can then use the max level trade exception to go hunting for a trade during the next year.

    either way Parsons is going to get replaced with Ariza.

    What actually happened that screwed with their plans is that Lebron/Bosh saga took a long time to conclude, if Lebron decided quicker, Houston would be sitting pretty with a $15m trade exception and Ariza right now, and Jeremy Lin would still be a Rocket.

    I can see the plan and it was a very nice plan, the one thing the Rockets didn't forsee what the Lebron would take so long to decide where to go AND that Houston would end up in a time crunch with Bosh nearly signing, it was literally the worst of murphy's law, if Lebron decided 2 days earlier, Houston would have a great free agency.
     
    2 people like this.
  2. kjhwang

    kjhwang Member

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  3. ThaShark316_28

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    I dig this. Logical thoughts behind it.

    Had not heard one Rocket fan say (in so many words): "maybe the Rockets weren't planning in bringing CP back". So, it's rather interesting to see your thoughts on that. Good stuff, sir.
     
  4. kjhwang

    kjhwang Member

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    Shoo. You're no longer welcome here! Shoo! I say!

    <iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/0ufGsdlbwPI?rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
     
  5. jump shooter

    jump shooter Contributing Member

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    Personally I think Morey would easily want to reverse his decision on Parsons and have him back. They obvioulsy didn't think he would get max money and I think Dan Fegan stuck it to the rockets in the end. No way Morey lets Parsons out there knowing what he did to Chicago for Asik and the Knicks for Lin in offering toxic contracts, there had to be some sort of wink wink deal that Fegan didn't honor and Morey can't talk about. Losing Parsons for nothing really really hurt and worst case scenario Parsons could have been part of a package to aquire the 3rd star Morey is seeking if they hadn't have let him out a year later.
     
  6. calcium

    calcium Member

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    Dude, right now, Lin would be more useful to the team than the TPE.

    Right now, you have no credible backup to JHarden.
    Canaan would need to improve. And that is not a certain thing to happen,
    be it enough improvement in timely fashion.

    You can always trade him at some later stage, but until you
    go get yourself a backup for JHarden, trading him was a bad idea.
     
  7. count_dough-ku

    count_dough-ku Contributing Member

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    No, what happened is that Morey pursued free agents who didn't want to be here. Melo was never serious about coming to the Rockets. And Bosh wanted to be in Miami. And in the end, it didn't even matter if LeBron was there. All the Heat had to do was offer him more money than us, and he was resigning with them. Did that possibility never occur to Morey and Les?

    And in the meantime, the one quality free agent who DID want to be here, Kyle Lowry, was treated like a backup plan(which I suppose he was) by Morey and that allowed Toronto to step in and resign him for a pretty reasonable contract. Had Morey made Lowry a decent offer the moment free agency began instead of chasing after guys who had no interest in coming here, we'd be in a much different situation today.
     
  8. MarioKissoDeath

    Supporting Member

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    BOSSSSSHHHHHHH!!!!! That velociraptor Beltraned us to get PAID. He is the one to blame.
     
  9. Red.Glare

    Red.Glare Member

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    If DM really knew Parson's market value, and knew he was leaving, why not keep him for his final year instead of losing him for nothing? We still could of picked up Ariza with Parson's making less than a million this season.
     
  10. trugoy

    trugoy Member

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    My post explained that no free agent coming was by far the most likely scenario and that they planned for that scenario by using Parsons as a sign and trade for a max contract level TPE, and that the Rockets were positioned well for that eventuality.

    The one thing they didn't plan for was the it would take Lebron until after the moratorium to make up his mind, that's something they didn't plan for since I don't think that's ever happened, that the biggest free agent in any particular season would take longer than the moratorium to make up his mind.
     
  11. JoeBarelyCares

    JoeBarelyCares Contributing Member

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    But would we really get a $15m trade exception for signing and trading a BYC player?

    [​IMG]
     
  12. trugoy

    trugoy Member

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    Because he wanted a max level TPE this season. AND he could use Parsons RFA status to get a max level TPE.

    the two options available to Morey was;

    1 year of parsons(in which he could veto any trade), thus making him a not so good trade chip.

    OR

    $15m TPE which could fit most max level guys, which combined with other assets, i.e. picks could get a 3rd star.

    to me the front office determined that a max level TPE was worth more than one year of parsons.
     
  13. REEKO_HTOWN

    REEKO_HTOWN I'm Rich Biiiiaaatch!

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    My guess is it would have been a cancer in the locker room. Parsons' would have been complaining and chucking all year trying to get big numbers. We saw it with Lance In Indy.
     
  14. count_dough-ku

    count_dough-ku Contributing Member

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    But that's just it. Lowry himself said he was interested in coming back here. He probably would have too had Morey made a firm offer in the $12 mil/year range. The problem is Morey told Lowry the Rockets wouldn't commit to him until after the Melo pursuit was concluded.

    It had nothing to do with Bosh(that came later once it looked like LeBron might leave Miami). Morey and Les prioritized a free agent like Melo who was a bad fit for the Rockets, had no interest in coming here, and would've cost around $20 mil/year over a much better fit like Lowry who wanted to be here, had a history with the Rockets, and could've been had for around 60% of what Melo would've cost them.
     
  15. jakedasnake

    jakedasnake Member

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    Stanley Kubrick fan?
     
  16. trugoy

    trugoy Member

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    The new CBA revises the BYC rules of a sign-and-trade, it only applies if the receiving team is above the salary cap after the sign-and-trade, since Dallas is under the cap, no BYC applies and the Rockets would receive the full $15m TPE.
     
  17. CertifiedTroll

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    You may not credit him, but I sure do. Troy Daniels wins games. Unlike Lin who lost them when they counted.
     
    1 person likes this.
  18. trugoy

    trugoy Member

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    My guess is that outside of Melo/Bosh/Lebron, Morey didn't see any free agents as been worth locking up their flexibility for.

    All indications are that Morey thinks the PG spot is the easiest spot to fill and doesn't want to commit big dollars to that position unless it's for a mega star.
     
  19. trugoy

    trugoy Member

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    2014, a Rockets Free Agency.
     
  20. battousai

    battousai Member

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    I think the biggest problem was the poison pill of no trade kicker into Parsons contract. That screwed up the whole plan for us and it may have to do with the playoffs. Parsons body language was not the same during the playoffs, there must be something happened.

    Morey prolly knew or had an idea that we could lose Parsons in the FA. Therefore he tried to let Parsons walk an yr earlier thinking we can match and trade him in order to retain some value. The trade kicker is exactly there to counter that and this got to be something well known in advance or else they wouldnt place that clause there.

    This makes me worry about Howard when his contract is up as he shared the same agent as Parsons. By then Mavs could of retired Dirk and they can replace Dirk with Howard. Or Dirk could be playing a much much lesser role.
     

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