Why MoneyBall doesn't work & other lessons learned

The Rockets acquired 3 stars under CD - Barkley, Pippen, and McGrady. McGrady was actually a superstar. I'd venture to say Pippen and Barkley were as well, in the parlance of our times. Morey has yet to acquire a player as good as any of those guys.

CD was also able to land a #2 pick in the draft via trade. Morey has tried to move up into the top of the draft every year, but hasn't been able to get it done. CD did it with a mid-1st round pick in Dickerson, and basically scraps. So while Morey has been able to produce a roster 1-12 of guys that can all play, at the present we have no hope for a title anytime soon. People don't realize CD did multiple times what Morey has been trying to do since he became GM. His whole 'compile assets and turn them into stars' strategy, CD wrote the book on.

And the Griffin trade was a great move that didn't pan out. You don't win titles by playing it safe.

 

The exception of Gay? How many exceptions do you need???

So the Spurs, goes and picks someone else instead of Tim Duncan, and goes to say later on: "we've only had one lottery pick with the exception of Duncan!!!"

Does that make sense to you?

When you are a contender, every single move that benefits you makes a mass of difference. Rudy Gay would have saved the Yao-McGrady era. Battier couldn't.

How many stars did Boston have in 06-07? Two. Al Jefferson and Paul Pierce. They turned their lottery pick into Ray Allen and we turned ours into Shane Battier.

 

The Yao-McGrady era really only last about 1 1/2 years after we made that trade. Was Rudy Gay a superior player to Battier in his first couple years in the league?

 

I can point out the exact moment of failure. Tmac and Yao both got healthy the year we got Artest. At that moment you go get Amare Stoudemire for Yao Ming. You trade Tmac for what you can get. Maybe then you can get Kevin Martin for TMac? Then you dont have to give up Landry or Artest. His biggest mistake was always TMac and Yao. Lets say you got these guys? And??? At that time? Totally pheasible you could get at least that for Yo and Tmac... Lineup would look like..

Amare
Scola/ Landry
Artest/ Battier
Martin/Battier
Lowry/Brooks

Lets say at the time they are only worth moving lower level guys for them? Marc Gasol not highly thought of then and neither where a few other players at that time not stars yet like Gerald Wallace.

Marc Gasol
Scola /Landry
Artest/Battier/Wallace
Gerlad Wallace/Battier/Artest
Brooks/Lowry

Any number of guys we could have gotten back then. For them. That we would be grateful for now.

 

Yes, Gay was the exception. The rockets draft picks were not ottery picks, the exception was the 2006 draft. They were in the 20s. What's so hard to understand? It's either a lottery pick or not.

 

Battier gave us wins in the regular season. But he was a miserable failure in the playoffs--when things really mattered.

Battier matched up horribly against the Utah Jazz. He had no one to guard and he had nothing to contribute in the offensive end either. He collected a total of 2.6 rebounds per game in his 39 minutes per game in the first Utah series. He scored 10 points per game in 39 minutes. We really struggled for offense. We almost always did during the Yao-McGrady Era because of the poor talent levels outside of Yao and McGrady.

Rudy Gay would have helped out ALOT more.

Just look at Aaron Brooks for example.

 

I give you Barkley and T-Mac, but Pippen was a has-been not a star at the oint. There have no players in the last 4 seasons that have demanded a trade like Francis. Rockets got lucky. The situation has played out that way.

Griffin was a horrible move. Gambling is good. Giving up 3 gambles for 1 gamble is bad. I would still rather have Gerald Wallace, Tony Parker, Zach Randolph, Okur, Dalembert or other players. They hadn't won a ring since Robinson, but they gambled their only first round pick on a little known PG. They went back to winning 3 more rings and have stayed in contention for a ring every yaer. Randolph had attitude problems. Gerald Wallace was an incredibly raw athlete that would time to break out.

 

Well, I'm saying:"We really needed a boost from that single Lottery pick we had in 06'. But we wasted it."

You are saying our picks were mostly poor--in the 20's mostly. Thats true and all, but we did have that lottery pick. I don't really think its necessary to talk about those low first rounders. We needed a star. And that lottery pick could have given us one. Morey blew up the whole era with the misdraft of Gay.

 

Deke hadn't backed up Yao for a full season since '06-'07. Rockets have been looking for a backup C that could play for 4 years. At least, I hope they were looking and not being content with 6'6" Hayes.

 

The Magic throw money around like confetti, he probably would have thought there was a better chance of trading for him than signing him, but if you're the team that gave the offer sheet, you can't trade for him.

 

This would have been very hard to pull off.

Stars like Yao and McGrady are literally untouchable when healthy.

The point of failure I would point to is: The Rudy Gay trade and the refusal to spend by Les Alexander.

 

That's the main problem that has prevented Morey from drafting stars. Rockets under CD had 4 lottery picks and only had Yao Ming to show for it. Morey can only do so much with crappy picks. Rockets wasted their lottery years and are even too good for a top 10 lottery pick, this year.

 

I think you missed his point. His point was that Morey is really tight with money and would never pay for anything more than a bargain for his players.

But its funny how he goes and spends the full MLE for the fully washed up white dinosaur that is Bradley Miller.

 

They also skipped over Joe Johnson who was about the same age and upside. Rockets would have looked awesome with Joe Johnson and Francis, but they were happy with Mobley at the time and didn't think Joe Johson would be better than Mobley.

 

I won't reiterate my complete disgust at the CD years and how Uncle Les stood by and let his incompetence put the Rockets where they are today. But I'd like to add this observation about the 2001 draft. That was a prime example of why I feel the problem with today's Rockets lies with the organization at the top. As you pointed out: that was a deep draft and they had 3 1st round picks that could have been used to rebuild this team. Instead, CD tossed them all away for a sophomore named Eddie Griffin who had numerous red flags in his background and who had burned his bridges at Seton Hall. This organization simply did not bother to look at his issues. When you are essentially using three 1st round picks on a single player that player had better be worth the cost - at least that's what a smart organization does. You'll notice that the Spurs took Parker and the rest was history.

Not only did they whiff on that draft but when Griffin was outplayed at the PF position by Kenny Thomas, CD then traded Kenny Thomas who had clearly outplayed Griffin, to clear the deck so EG could be the starting PF. The result of that decision everyone around here sadly knows. Consequently, they were never able to fill the PF position until Scola fell into their lap.

This simply isn't the way that good, smart organizations operate but it's a prime example of the way Rockets organization operates. And when things go wrong, the head coach takes the fall. That's why they hasn't been able to craft a strategy that can place a contending team on the court because the organization currently in place simply does not know how to do so. You can point fingers of blame at Morey all you want (and his record is not above criticism (Artest deal)) but the real problems with the Rockets lie much much deeper than the GM or his philosophy of player evaluation.

 

Mobley and Francis turned into Tmac though.

 

morey is not tight with money, its the simple fact that he dosen't want to end up overpaying for players. Granted the miller contract does look bloated now but there are various resons why it made sense.

1. Victim of circumstance - Miller was the best big available and was thrown the money becuase the teams cap situation was clear. ( In 09 they didn't know if they were going to trade T-mac, and taking into account the hype of the FA bonaza that was assumed to take place at the end of the season, Throwing money at gortat would have been much more restrictive compared to Miller)

2. Non-guaranteed last year - this means in the 2012/13 Millers contract becomes an plus-asset usable in trade

3. Multiple teams were willing to spend the <i>Full</i> Mid level exception for brad (5.8Mil), the rockets are paying him 4,400,000 this season which means he is clearly a highly thought of player. You could even say we got him for a bargain.

 

Right. He only overpays for role players.

 

Its like the Texans draft strategy to draft TE's. Morey just drafts role players.

 

Ok. I get your point.

Well, I don't really agree with your judgment. I have a different opinion. I'm not bashing your opinion because not everyone is going to agree with each other. But let me state my counterargument to your case.

Ok, so you say CD has had a huge amount of top lottery picks, (i.e. resources to work with), while Morey didn't.

However, I would still state that....CD > Morey in this case.

You see, its a totally different story when your team is sucking and when your team is contending seriously for a championship.

Just look at Minnesota. They've had top lottery picks year after year after year. They draft total busts? Jonny Flynn? Randy Foye? Corey Brewer? You see, it actually doesn't matter. All it means is they are going to get another top lottery pick. And eventually no matter how dumb the GM is, they'll wander upon a Kevin Love and bam, they get a legit all-star. It doesn't ruin or waste anything at all, apart from meaningless seasons with marginal scrubs.

But, however, it is a totally different scenario with the Rockets.

CD could afford to mess around and draft busts. His team wasn't going anywhere. His team was the T-Wolves of yesteryear. He had Steve Francis and that was it. That team was never going to make it to the playoffs. He could draft 10 Eddie Griffins, and all it means is he is going to get another 10 chances at another 10 Blake Griffins.

If CD didn't fail at drafting all those scrubs like Bryce Drew and Eddie Griffin and drafted Rashard Lewis's and Richard Jeffersons instead, then we would have never gotten Yao.

Then we had Yao and McGrady. It was time to get serious. Every mistake now would be costly. You either make the crucial moves to get them a championship or you were gonna make the bad moves and they would just float in the playoffs year after year until they age and start fading.

Its evidence on just so many teams. If the Cavs GM got LeBron another star and they could win a championship? Chances are LeBron wouldn't go to Miami. If the Nuggets could actually win? Chances are Carmelo doesn't demand a trade.

Cavs' GM drafted Luke Jackson in 04'. Now if that pick was like Andre Iguodala? Now Cavs would probably have won a ring now. The Cavs GM wasn't going to have another crack at getting another top lottery pick to get a star, because his team was too good by then.

If the Cavs drafted Darko instead of LeBron...then they probably would have gotten Dwight Howard or something.

When Yao and McGrady got together, Morey blew them away by getting Battier instead of Rudy Gay. And he wasn't gonna get another lottery pick to have a second chance. Because the team was already too good by then.

At the end of the day, each year, there would only be one winner and the rest 29 are all losers.

Morey misplayed his hand and we witnessed the failure of Houston Rockets 2002-2010.