Why MoneyBall doesn't work & other lessons learned

But um...we just lost to NO but beat Boston and ATL.

 

Each GM is naturally going to have a different style. While CD was all about bad contracts, old vets from the nba dumpster, and JVG, it just didn't work.

It was time for the organization to move away from the CD era. Morey got rid of JVG, bargained hard for better contracts, and bought draft picks instead of giving them away in trade or selling the pick..

 

For what it's worth, I agree with you. This year, even the best-case scenario is us making the playoffs and getting blown out by a contender. And while we'll never be able to suck hard enough to get a top 3 pick by our record alone, we may be able to trade up to get one, in which case a 7-8 pick is a lot more valuable than a 14.

If it were me, I'd give the young guys a lot of time and focus on the franchise's future (I see no reason to play Jeffries, ever) But can you imagine how loud the howling would get if the team were to do such a thing?

 

So you're saying that if Orlando never matched, it would have been a legitimate criticism? I don't think that's necessarily fair.

I'm not saying it is Morey's fault that we failed to land Gortat. I was just pointing out a circumstance in which he refused to "overpay" for a player and the player moved on to the highest bidder (which we could have offered). Now days, Morey has been relentlessly trying to trade for that "bad contract" he refused to bump his offer to.

One problem people have with Moreyball is their perception that he won't overpay for players and it will cost us. I think the Gortat situation is a fair example of it. Orlando matching is irrelevant to me as I was just using it as an example to show a situation where the Rockets had a big need and Morey refused to offer $1-2M more to get him signed.

 

It's possible.

The '96 draft was supposed to be a weak draft without any guys with top 10 potential. Dirk was expected to be a euro bust. Everybody was laughing at the Mavs, including myself, for selecting Nowitzki.

Dirk turned into a top 10 talent(6-10).

Rockets would need to move to a much higher draft position though.

 

I don't see it as a fair example at all. We didn't lose out on Gortat because of an unwillingness to overpay for him. I suspect the Rockets knew that the Magic would likely match their offer after some probing and gathering of intel and decided it wasn't worth it when other targets became available.

 

IMO,

An all stats guy should not be the GM, but should be the assistant GM....they need to look at stats, but I would rather a basketball guy make the final call than a stats guy.

DD

 

That's silly! We didn't sign Gortat to an offer sheet because we were low balling him. He wanted the full MLE and Morey refused to budge from his $4M or whatever their offer was. That is the definition of being 'unwilling to overpay' for him. Had we offered the same $ as other teams and he preferred another situation to ours, you'd have a point.

Whether or not the Rockets had Orlando intel is 100% speculation. That they refused to give him the full MLE when other teams were offering it is 100% fact.

What is the difference between a basketball guy and a stats guy? Can one not be both? Morey has states several times they do NOT rely solely on statistics but instead use them as one part of their evaluation process.

 

I don't know...if you are a stats guy you are not looking at what is going on, on the floor.

For instance, chemistry or potential chemistry and fit on a different team does not show up in stats, anywhere.

There are types of players who fit in very well in one style but are crap in another....

Look at DJ Augustine now as an example, or our own Kevin Martin...those guys need a style to be effective...

Lots of players need that, but you can't find that by analyzing stats, you have to watch their games and extrapolate how their particular skill sets would translate....

That, IMO, is more important than statistical analysis.

And, IMO, the biggest thing this team is missing someone who analyzes or identifies chemistry and fit...

DD

 

Yeah you're right. It's really easy to acquire talent on the level of Yao and tmac. We should have already got a center as good as Yao and a play maker like tmac already. It's "morey balls" fault we haven't replaced those guys quickly.

 

So you think Morey is a mistake as GM of the Rockets. I disagree.

 

Let's suppose the Rockets were willing to offer Gortat more money, and did so. Let's suppose Gortat signed that offer sheet. In that scenario, the Rockets still wouldn't have him. They'd have to wait a week to let Orlando match the offer -- and it was reported that Orlando would do just that. Meanwhile, they would be losing out on other potential targets that became available (like Ariza).

I don't believe it was simply a matter of us not wanting to outbid other teams. It was a realization that we couldn't outbid other teams even if we wanted to, and that it would likely be a waste of valuable time that could be spent pursing another target (which, as it turns out, it would have been).

 

Morey always said that superstars are the best moneyball players because there value exceed their capped salaries. Guys like Lebron, Wade, Dirk, Duncan are worth more than the salary they are making.

 

What does that have to do with your T-mac excuse?
T-mac has played 40 games out of 40 available games, this season.Oh no, Rockets suck again, because T-mac is injured again.

 

I don't know, honestly. I think he has done a good job, but I am not sure he has done as good a job as a lot of people give him credit for....

There are trades that he could have done that would make us better, IE Amare at the deadline last year......or trading for the number 2 pick this year.

I think he is a risk averse GM.....and I am unconvinced that one of those will ever be able to acquire a superstar player, due to the inability to pull the trigger when they have to...

Just my .02.

DD

 

This thread gets 1 star because you're actually evaluating an injury-devastated team with a straight face.

 

We used to have that guy, it was CD. Those days were pretty bad. Rockets were mired in Kelvin Cato, Juwan Hoard, trading away 1st round picks.

I think Morey spends quite a bit of time watching players and tape also. It only takes a minute to look at the numbers. It takes hours to look at the film and the game.

 

I disagree they were bad, some of the contracts were bad, but we were pretty danged good with CD, and he was not afraid to swing for the fences and bring in a Superstar like TMac etc...

I know a lot of the stat folks love DM, it validates all the new fangled stats crunching....meanwhile good old basketball people are winning all the championships......



DD

 

Yeah, further proof of how terrible this thread is, more people evaluating injury-devastated teams.

 

I agree with DD.