Why MoneyBall doesn't work & other lessons learned

We're on the right track

 

What Morey is doing isn't Athletic A's moneyball. The A's would always let their great players like Giambia, Teajada, and Zito go and try to stay competitive by retaining good players that didn't cost as much. However, unlike the A's, the Rockets are willing to pay players to keep them around. Morey just refuses to over pay for players which is never a good idea and you can look at what the Knicks dealt with for years to see that.

 

....kind of funny how a team gets derailed when it loses its 2 stars to injury.

 

watched the video. at 1 hour and 48 seconds Morey talks about how he doesnt feel that investing money and evaluating players base on their potential to develop and how well they perform in the clutch is important. whereas Cuban disagrees and feels that a players ability to perform in the clutch is very important. i hope Morey can learn from this and change is position.

 

Well, I think an important distinction is what Morey is "willing to pay for" as mentioned in that conference. Two major things he's said he may believe in but DOES NOT make personnel decisions on is possible player development and clutch performance.

There definitely seems to be a lack of high potential players and clutch performers on this team. I'm not sure if the Spurs operate with that same philosophy. Maybe, they care less about those things when getting role players but Parker was very raw when they got him and their big 3 all seem to adjust well to the pressure of a clutch situation.

EDIT: didn't read il italiano's comment before posting...similar response

 

And do what? Get the most clutch players on the planet? Sure, having a Jordan or a Kobe to in the last second is great and all. But it's not like they grow on trees.

If you're talking about a "clutch specialist", i.e. someone who sucks for the whole game but turns it up a notch at the very end to become a superstar... then the question becomes why isn't that player awesome the rest of the time?

 

T-mac is not here this season to get injured. We can't use 2 stars getting injured excuse, this season.

 

i dont think you understood what i meant. i understand that clutch players like a kobe or jordan are rare, but morey doesnt even feel that its is important to consider their ability to perform in the clutch. When looking at franchise-potential players, like martin, i believe that the ability to perform in the clutch is a huge requirement.

and i dont believe there is a such thing as a "clutch specialist." no player sucks for the whole game then turns it up in crunch time

 

lol what a stupid ass thread....and always nice to take instructive 'lessons' about rockets bball from a guy who thinks lewis lloyd's name is spelled like louis :grin:

 

Mcgrady is coming back more like 18 + points in like 6 games.
Too bad his injured again i think .

 

No. Morey's saying that if you're a superstar in the clutch, it's because you are a superstar period. i.e. the fact that Kobe makes last second 3s isn't what makes him great. It's the fact that he can put up 30+ on anyone against double teams. Hence, it's that capability that allows him to succeed in the clutch.

So you believe the Rockets should've kept Carl Landry instead because of his clutchness or something?

Hence, a clutch player in practice is always a superstar. Because if a player is capable of creating points when the defense is fixed on him in the final seconds of a game, it's because he can do it the rest of the game.

Now do you understand Morey's point?

 

lewis lloyd would have been a beast if it weren't for that damned crack.

 

This is the most failed argument ever.

You're saying the only way to win is to have on of the best players in the league (top 5 basically).

So uh... if there are only 5 of these players... and you don't want to tank repeatedly to get lucky in the draft... how do you get one of these players?

What's the rest of the teams in the NBA supposed to do? Watch ONLY the teams that have those top 5 guys play each other? Please.

You're basically saying that Morey is a bad GM for not being lucky enough to have Lebron. He gets all of these pieces so that he can try to trade for one of these superstar talents.

And if all of that weren't enough, you clearly have no idea how stats work (this has been pointed out already).

 

Your educational background and medical history please?

 

I SORT OF agree with the premise...but if you consider Granger and Bosh second tier talent, how many teams in the league have been successful in acquiring first tier talent in the last ten years? Really, only Cleveland, Denver, Miami, Chicago, New Orleans, Orlando, and Utah for the WHOLE DECADE, and Miami was the only one who successfully rode it to a title as of yet.

Of course I agree there are often two components to winning, a star and a supporting cast. Of the champions in the last 10 years, their best players have been:

-Duncan: the one exception to my premise, a #1 pick - his team did not 'blow it up' to get him, they had a special scenario with the Robinson injury
-Parker: late first round pick grabbed when the team was already good
-Ginobili: second round pick grabbed when the team was already good
-Bryant: a #13 pick, so no sure thing; you could just as easily have had Vitaly Potapenko
-Gasol: acquired by L.A. for 4 cents on the dollar when his previous team decided to move on
-Wade: top five pick
-O'Neal: acquired by Miami cheaply when his previous team decided to move on
-Garnett: acquired by Boston cheaply when his previous team decided to move on
-Allen: acquired by Boston cheaply when his previous team decided to move on
-Pierce: #10 pick who suffered through years of failure before hitting success
-Pistons starting five: a collection of intelligently cobbled together overachievers, only one of whom was drafted by Detroit

What I'm saying is that I agree the team needs improved, but the 'blow it up' strategy hasn't really done much for anyone this decade -- the winners are the ones who made great draft choices ranging from #1, #5, #10, #13, #28, and the second round - OR they are the ones who had too-good-to-be-true trades fall into their lap. I agree that the Rockets need a big trade for a superstar, but that's not easy to achieve. Morey has put the team in position to be a player whenever a superstar trade becomes available (a ton of picks, recent lottery picks, and nice young players with friendly contracts) and to label him a failure before the right opportunity comes for his plan to pay off is premature.

From another vantage point, please realize that when Morey arrived, the franchise was built around two guys who cost two-thirds of the salary cap on their own, and they both flamed out on him within 2 years. No GM in the league could have completely recovered from that to become a contender yet.

 

Martin's problem isn't his "clutchness". He's just not talented enough to be considered a franchise player.

 

I would argue (and have argued here) that Moneyball lends itself better to baseball (though it's nowhere near the panacea there that many like to believe it is) than basketball. That the 2 games are fundamentally different in terms of how you fill out a roster -- most obvious being the impact of one player in basketball vs. the impact of one player in baseball.

* - I'm not saying Morey is employing this strategy or not. I've never had occasion to talk with him about it. Just speaking generally about that philosophy. My concerns with Morey (that kinda sorta fall under the Moneyball heading) are about how I see move after move that seems to be made in a bubble with no consideration for the rest of the roster. Just stacking "assets" with no clear direction on building a team. Making each move spending more time worrying about how you'll ultimately flip the guy you just acquired than about how he mixes with the current roster. I'm not saying Morey does that intentionally...I don't know....I'm saying that's the impression I get looking in. I'm sure I'll get flamed for that opinion because many of you consider Morey to be something between Jerry West and Jesus Christ.

 

In other words your argument is based on personal opinion.

 

you're asking him to make moves that aren't there. explain what you would've done differently.