Why MoneyBall doesn't work & other lessons learned

IIRC it was Adelman, while on 'sabbatical' at home in OR, who fell for AB while watching his games. That was what was said as soon as AB was drafted.

 

Yeah, maybe one of the other ones will say something different. I don't put much stock in headlines -- they're usually not even written by the author, though I don't know the particular policy for Chron.com. In any case, even if we take the headline as part of the report, its still a leap to say Brooks was picked by Adelman.

 

Really?

In the article it talks about Adelman taking a year off and envisioning how his offense would work with AB, and then lo and behod right after he is hired they draft him.

Seriously, I am curious, how do you think it went down?

A rookie GM ignored his new coaches wishes? What do you think actually happened here?

Because here is how it works in my neck of the woods.

Say I need a programmer to work at the company, now I am a former programmer but the kids I hire today are WAY better than I ever was.....so, I ask my lead programmer to look over the candidates...

He is my lead mind you, sort of the head coach of the programming staff.....so when he says "I want this guy" ......I, as the GM of the company listen to what he says.....because ultimately he has to "WIN" with that guy on his squad.

Same thing happening in the Rox org...exact same thing. Morey is a good manager, he knows that he should support his coach and get the guy he wants.

DD

 

I know. But that doesn't mean that Adelman made the pick, or even that he was the driving force behind making the pick. Since he lived in the same state, its natural that he'd have followed Brooks very closely and he'd have a strong opinion on him.

The selection was made with Adelman's up-tempo style in mind, and as the in-coming head coach they probably got his opinion. But I'd sooner credit Dean Cooper -- our directory of player scouting at the time -- for zeroing in on Brooks/Landry in that draft.

Clutch's story from right after the draft:

http://www.clutchfans.net/news/1419/drafty_night_at_the_toyota_center/

[rquoter]
Rockets Director of Scouting Dean Cooper came down to talk to us about Brooks.

"We like his speed, which in today's NBA we know works," said Cooper. "If you look around the league at the point guards who've had success lately and how it's changed the game in Tony Parker, T.J. Ford, Chris Paul. Guys like that with speed with the no hand-checking rule in those situations, we think is valuable with the way Coach Adelman is going to play."

At this point of the night, I'm getting over the initial shock a little bit and "slightly" starting to warm up to the Brooks pick. Not sold, but just thinking it through. He averaged 17.7 points on 46% shooting and though he wasn't a real good three-point shooter in college, he did hit over 40% as a senior. When you have as many short guards as the Rockets do (one media member asked Rockets staff if they were playing in a "6-foot-5 and under league" next year), they clearly had to see something in this kid to take him. It goes without saying that a trade is coming in the near future.
[/rquoter]

Here was an interview with Dean Cooper subsequent to the draft:

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Notice that no mention was given there that Adelman pushed for Brooks to be selected. If that's what happened, I think it would have been reported somewhere.

 

This ^^^^^^^

 

Morey hates size so he took the smallest player available?

Anyways, I'm sure Morey heard what Adelman had to say about Brooks and incorporated that into his decision.

I hate how people here tend to blame Morey for his (possibly) bad picks and then credit somebody else for the good picks. (Lindsay, Hinkie, Cooper, Adelman etc.)

 

Here's my two cents:

"Moneyball" is a pretty broad term and means nothing more than using statistical analysis to help evaluate talent. Just like there are different ways to do traditional scouting there are also many variations of "Moneyball".

Is there any Moneyball GM (including Billy Beane) that goes strickly by numbers? No there isn't. If that was the case then teams wouldn't even need a scouting department. The Rockets do some of the most extensive overseas scouting and college scouting in the NBA. If Morey were strictly going by numbers then our scouts and Morey himself wouldn't be traveling all over the world to watch games.

One of my personal favorites is the perception that Moneyball means that you only make low risk moves and primarily try to save money. Billy Beane is the best know practitioner of Moneyball and he was in a situation with a franchise that was financial strapped and competing against teams with payrolls double and triple what the A's could pay. He used statistical analysis to help him gain an advantage but that doesn't mean that statistical analysis only works to save money. Theo Epstein is a big time moneyball GM and last I checked the Boston Red Sox had a payroll approaching $200M.

As for making safe low risk moves, that has nothing to do with moneyball it's about good business. The vast majority of large corporations make safe smart moves because it's good business. There are certainly instances of companys taking risky moves but those are by far the exception.

The Spurs, Thunder, Blazers and Mavs are all big into statistical analysis but I don't think that there's the perception that they don't scout players, spend money or take risks.

Moneyball/Statistical analysis is nothing more than a case of finding additional information to help you make a decision. There's multiple ways to evaluate players but if a GM were foolish enough to only use one of those methods then they'd only be getting part of the picture. The smart GM will use all of those things and his advantage will come from the fact that he has additional information that his competition doesn't.

 

Durvasa "Adelman did not drive the selection of Aaron Brooks, there is no proof !"

DD

 

Its not complicated. The Rockets wanted to be more up-tempo and offense-oriented. That's why they fired JVG and hired Adelman. On their draft board, they valued shooting and speed very highly. Brooks met the criteria -- after Fernandez, he was the guy they were looking at for their draft position. They had considered drafting him in the second round, but they got intel that Phoenix really liked Brooks and was intent on drafting him. So they decided to pick him with their 1st round pick.

Then came the reports after the draft that Adelman followed Brooks very closely because he lived in the same state, and he was therefore very familiar with his game and liked him a lot. The reports did not say that Adelman was the guy pushing for Brooks to be drafted, or that he directed Morey to draft Brooks thus sidestepping the HUGE amount of work that other people on the staff put into the draft. Again, if you read such a thing, then by all means point me to it. But I guess I'm sort of weird -- I tend to believe things as they are reported unless there is strong reason to doubt it.

 

both DD & D, i would be surprised if ra and dm were not on the same page when ab was drafted. both of them were eager to get AB for sure.

 

Funny, except that what I wrote is that it was never reported that Adelman drove the selection of Aaron Brooks, which appears to be true. You wrote that there were many such reports, which appears to be false.

You can speculate that Adelman was the driving force behind the pick if you like. Maybe that's the case. I just tend to be believe things as they are reported, unless given a strong reason not to.

 

Yes, that is weird......to ignore that Brooks went to Oregon and Adelman talked about him running his offense.

And that it was reported that Adelman was KEY to taking Brooks.....

And DM was a rookie GM who wanted to get players his coach likes....

And not everything is reported in black and white.

No offense, but if you take what has been reported and reason it out to it's logical conclusion...it is fairly obvious.

Your view seems very naive, IMO.

At the end of the day, I am convinced, and so are you, we are not going to agree...this is just one of those cases, where life experiences are vastly different and lead to different conclusions.

DD

 

Stop projecting. YOU are convinced. I am simply saying that it was not reported, and it wasn't (a copy editor's headline does not count as a report from a "real source"). I wrote from the beginning that what was reported is that Adelman liked Brooks a lot and he was very familiar with his game. That's correct. It wouldn't be the first time that a coach really liked a player that his team drafted. It was never reported what was the extent of Adelman's involvement prior to the draft, other than he was sitting in the war room with everyone else. Adelman's role in the war room or in pre-draft assessment was never described, to my knowledge. I thought maybe you could provide more information on that, but I guess not.

You claimed that it was widely reported that Adelman made the pick. Now you are hedging, and saying its an "obvious" and "logical" inference. Is it a reasonable inference that Adelman's input played a role in the selection? Yes, and I never claimed otherwise. It is a reasonable inference that Brooks was hand-picked by Adelman, a claim repeatedly made on this BBS? No, that is not supported by the reporting.

 

OK fine, again, I think it was reported.....the headline read...."KEY" in picking Brooks.

And yes I am projecting, but that is not hard to do when you read people's posts, and follow their line of thinking.

DD

 

My god will you two get a room already?

 

Yao is not Duncan. If he were, the Rockets would have enjoyed similar success to the Spurs. That's really all that needs to be said in response here. When the Rockets did have a player of that caliber, they won titles.

 

one reason you can tell moneyball doesn't work is that all the teams that didn't use it won the title last year.

 

Yes, I know. Again, headlines are typically supplied by a copy editor, not by the reporter, and should not be relied on as reporting.

What was actually reported:

• The Rockets felt Brooks's skills would mesh well in Adelman's up-tempo style
• With the rule changes his offensive skill-set was highly valued
• Dean Cooper was the guy in charge of scouting potential draftees
• Adelman was familiar with Brooks because he lived in Oregon and he liked his game.

That does not add up to: Adelman picked Brooks. I'm just trying to set the record straight as to what was reported and what wasn't reported. I don't like it when people make up things and it grows into something widely believed without people actually checking up on the source. Its a disservice to this message board.

 

LOL - Adelman picked Brooks, the proof or lack thereof has been posted, let people decide for themselves no matter how obstinate you want to be about it.

Clearly I am just as set, it is beyond the burden of proof for me.

A disservice to a fansite message board, really?

DD