Why MoneyBall doesn't work & other lessons learned

I was super excited to get Lowry for Alston. Many folks labeled me as a Rafer Hater.

Are you my twin now? It's getting scary. It's like you are reading my mind.

 

and i've come to believe it really is as simple as that. "all we have is a team of really good role players!!1111!" - yep. that's exactly what aaron brooks, kyle lowry, chase budinger, luis scola, and even kevin martin were designed to be. Very good role players to play around Yao (and for some of them, TMAC) and get us to a championship.

they are playing exactly how a team of role players without a star would be expected to play. at least we're not the cavs.

how to get out of this hole and sign a star ? that's what we can debate and i think we have no doubt that is exactly what DM is trying to do - plug a new star into this solid supporting cast he's built. but blaming him for not replacing TMAC and Yao ? i'm over it. yeah we could have signed a shot-blocking center to back Yao up - but whoever we could have scraped together wouldn't be the *missing piece* that takes us to a title. (hell Gortat wasn't even available so other than propping Deke up on crutches just outside the paint, i don't know who we could have gotten). maybe we'd be 23-18 instead of 18-23 and lined up for another scrappy, yet futile playoff run, i don't know.

i guess my point is - we are having the same conversations on this board over and over but to me it seems simple - 1. we lost our two stars. 2. stars are hard to replace. 3. our role players are doing their jobs just fine (of course their flaws are exposed but that's what happens when you ask role players to play above their level). 4. until we sign or develop a few great ***all-around*** players, we will be stuck in limbo. 5. i personally don't think this is anyone's fault.

sorry for the long post.

 

Yep and that is really hard to do.

DD

 

Morey does not live and die by Moneyball, otherwise he would not be always talking about how this team needs a star and Rockets would not come up in nearly every trade topic regarding a star. Unfortunately, it takes two to tango (sometimes even three) to get a star and teams/players don't seem to want to tango with Morey. Morey only seems to use Moneyball when it comes to judging role players and there is nothing wrong with that.

 

I think the moneyball is really overblown by many people here. It's additional support. I believe most of their picks were based on old fashioned scouting with analytics providing only support to confirm what was scouted.

Weren't Brooks and Budinger picked by Adelman, so it was done with scouting? Adelman had seen them play, when he used to live in Portland.

 

Everything the Rockets have said point to the statistics being used in a complementary way. I agree with you on that. I never heard (from a real source) that Brooks/Budinger were picked by Adelman, though. Maybe he provided some input.

 

What? There have been numerous reports about Brooks being an Adelman selection.

Have you searched for one?

DD

 

I've never found such a report. It was written that Adelman followed Brooks and he liked Brooks, since he lived in Portland the year before we hired him and he watched the Ducks a lot. But to my knowledge, it was never reported that Brooks was an Adelman selection.

 

Way to go all out on the revisionist history here. Rudy Gay the past 4-5 years has been anything but a decent player, he was ranked as one of the worst defenders in the league, chucked up a ton of shots and basically just played soft all over the court. Now the Grizz are paying his lazy ass a maximum contract, have you ever heard of a completely healthy max wing lead his team to the lottery even with a solid center manning the post and at the very least an average pg setting things up? The last time I recall that happening was Michael Redd teaming up with Bogut and Mo Williams. Would I rather have the SF version of Redd on the team making the max over Battier's expiring contract? Oh hell no

The battier trade was a great move both for the long and short term. To say otherwise ignores the reality of what actually happened.

 

Brooks had mentioned in an interview that RA saw him playing for the ducks and was extremely impressed with his play.However just as DM keeps his nose out of coaching, I'm pretty sure RA doesn't butt into the roster decisions. Considering we already had Francis, Alston and Mike James at the pg spot when Brooks was drafted I think RA would have probably gone in a different direction if he was the one in charge.

 

WHAT?????

Come on people......really?

Look, this is how it works.....Morey and Adelman and the staff are a team....A TEAM.....

They work the draft together, and they value input from all of their sources.

Rick and Daryl do not work in a vaccuum.

DD

 

Can we just rename this the "MoneyBall doesn't work because Daryl Morey can't see the future" or "Hindsight is the best way to acquire players" thread?

 

You said it was reported in numerous places that Brooks was an Adelman selection. Do you remember where?

 

I recall it in the Chronicle, and have posted it here before. IIRC, it said Adelman was the guy that was fond of AB, and they chose him after his input.

I think Morey, just like any good GM would do, would try to get players that their coaches like....and when you are drafting so low in the first round, why not?

I do think DM has final say, but only a moron would think they don't work hand in hand, and a horrible GM would pick guys who the coach doesn't like.

DD

 

I found this:

http://www.canishoopus.com/2009/5/12/871751/executive-search-sam-hinkie

[rquoter]
As Special Assistant, Hinkie was given a huge amount of input and responsibility for someone with his level of experiece: advising Alexander and his replacement Daryl Morey on the draft, free agency and trades, managing the team's salary cap and providing both scouting and statistical player evaluation. At the 2007 draft, Hinkie was part of Houston's war room with Morey, Coach Rick Adelman, Clyde Drexler and current Timberwolves Assistant Coach Dean Cooper. That September, he was promoted to Vice President of Basketball Operations.[/rquoter]

So, Adelman was in the "war room" when we made the selection. Of course that doesn't mean that Brooks was his pick, but I'd say his input was taken into account.

 

Yeah, that is not what I read...but I really don't feel like arguing semantics.

I know that you will protect Morey at all costs, my guess is because he, like you is an uber stats guy, he is like your version of Aaron Brooks for me.

No worries....it is all good.

DD

 

You are referring to this?

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/bk/bkn/4934088.html

Basically the report is as I put it. Adelman was very familiar with Brooks and liked him a lot, because he lived in Portland. But nothing in there indicates that he made the selection, or that the Rockets decision to take Brooks was specifically due to Adelman's input. I'm sure his input was taken into account, but the Rockets also do their homework as well as anyone, and we can't assume that Brooks wouldn't have been on their radar unless Adelman pointed him out.

 

Nah, it was not that either.....again, Semantics.

I am not going to bother searching, but it has been posted on this board before.....you can believe whatever you like....

I think we actually agree on this, and you are just looking for something that may lock it down for you.

I think both Morey and Adelman work together, and maybe Adelman wanted AB, and clearly he was on the Rox radar, at a position of need, and at 26, why not?

Again, they work together. Why is it so important to find out if it was Adelman who drove the selection, a scout, or Morey...who cares?

-----------------------edit--------------------------

Here is an article I found in 10 seconds of google searching:

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/bk/bkn/4934088.html

Admiration from afar key to selection of Brooks


With a year to sit back and watch the NBA from stands and sofas, Rick Adelman studied the game and players, imagining how he would do things when he was back.

He watched the league take another step toward speed this past season and considered his offense fitting with the trend.

He also saw something else he might not have imagined becoming useful.

From Portland, Ore., Adelman could not help but notice the point guard at the University of Oregon.

Months later, with the first draft pick since Adelman became the Rockets' coach, they chose the Ducks' Aaron Brooks, and this time when Adelman was picturing a player running his offense, he eventually will be.

"I was really impressed with the level he played at," Adelman said. "I think he's got skills that are hard to guard. He's fast. He's quick. He really improved his shooting last year. I think he's going to add a real element. We want to push the ball more. We want to run more, have a little more activity. He gives us that.

"I think any player that has the speed and quickness that he possesses with the ball, it's pretty easy. There's a lot of things he can do that puts him in situations that he can attack the basket."

The Rockets brought Brooks and second-round pick Carl Landry, a power forward from Purdue, to town Friday.




DD

 

Yes, which basically falls in line with my original comment: Never heard from a legit source that Brooks was picked by Adelman, but maybe he provided input.

It was never reported, to my knowledge, that Adelman selected Brooks, or even that Adelman's input weighed very heavily in the selection of Brooks (though its reasonable to speculate the latter). I'll assume, unless reported otherwise, that the person tasked with running the draft and making the selections did so with input from his staff, scouts, coach, and owner.

Edit:

DD, that's the same link I already posted which you said was not the one you were referring to.

 

Did you read the headline to the link Durv? And there were more than a few of them, that was just the first one that popped up....

The headline is the KEY to the article.

DD