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Why is Miami even an option for us????

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by DaBeard, Dec 19, 2020.

  1. flamingdts

    flamingdts Member

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    He proceeded to shoot 32% from the field in his sophomore season in the playoffs. He played well in the bubble, but that's 16 games 2 seasons ago.

    Heat are a well run organization, and a team filled with smart veterans, and a very good coach that know how to work around a player like him. The Rockets don't get that privilege.
     
  2. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    that's great. 2nd year players go through that. especially ones that are 20. then he proceeds to now progress into the infamous 3rd year breakout many of the top players in the league go through and is the leading candidate for 6MOY and potentially his first all star birth

    doesn't matter if it was 2 seasons ago. You definitely don't see players like him come into the league with his type of performances often at all at 19.
     
    #322 YOLO, Jan 14, 2022 at 12:31 AM
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2022 at 12:41 AM
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  3. Reeko

    Reeko Member
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    as YOLO pointed out, the assets used for Sengun came from Washington and Detroit from the Russ trade and from when we sent Ariza to Detroit, so yes, we’d still have the assets for Sengun

    if the Rockets didn’t select Green, then Mobley and Barnes are still on the table so it’s still a win
     
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  4. withmustard

    withmustard Member
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    You may be right, but when you're the worst team and want to stay there, there is small margin for success. It's pretty reasonable to think he could be effective in 6 or 7 games out of 82. Maybe those games were tight games. Think of all the John Wall 4th quarters last year. Herro was bad, but not 20-21 Wall 4th quarter bad. There were many moments like this one.

     
  5. Reeko

    Reeko Member
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    he could be effective in those 6 or 7 games, and the Rockets would still lose them all…we had the worst record in the league by 3 games

    even if Herro wasn’t John Wall 4th quarter bad, he was still not the caliber of player that is making any real difference in the W-L column for a team as bad as the Rockets
     
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  6. flamingdts

    flamingdts Member

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    He's not having a breakout season, his efficiency is down across the board. He simply has significantly higher usage than before, so his numbers would naturally go up because of it. A player taking 13 shots to get 15 point isn't having a breakout season because he is now taking 18 shots to get 20 points. He literally has the same TS% as Jalen Green (53%), and Jalen Green is only 19 and extremely raw as a player.

    He leads his team in shots, and usage, but is not even top 5 on his own team in very important metrics like VORP, BPM and Win Shares. These stats alone don't determine everything, but not even being top 3 despite his usage is a massive red flag.
     
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  7. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    it's definitely another breakout season. it's funny the length folks try to reach to downplay herro and yet he continues to just shut them up. And he'll continue to do so

    So what. What was Herro's TS% at 19 at the same exact age. Oh wait it was 55%. that looks like it's higher than green at the same age. But lets not talk about that right

    those are some of the dumbest metrics used to try and downplay herro. So win shares as an example, butler has a highest win share on the team, yet has missed half their games. Yeah definitely contributing the most when he's in street clothes half the time. Silva and guy being the next two guys, yet have played in a whopping 6 games 103 and 63 minutes. Oh lets see whose at the top in minutes actually played. What do you know it's Herro and Lowry.
     
    #327 YOLO, Jan 14, 2022 at 8:33 AM
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2022 at 8:55 AM
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  8. peleincubus

    peleincubus Member

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    Those stats he posted seemed pretty convincing to me. just sayin
     
  9. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    oh yeah. Just like I posted above. someone whose played 6 games playing like less than 10 mins in them and has the highest win share makes a ton of sense. This is why folks who use numbers without context to evaluate a player are just flat out ignorant and have no idea wtf they're talking about. Yeah Nik staukus whose played 2 games is top 5 in WS. 41 games played and he's top 5 in win shares. He's definitely a top 5 player on that team helping them win all these games, by not actually playing. :rolleyes: But it's just another example of classic cf's
     
  10. Plowman

    Plowman Contributing Member

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    Absolutely. All one has to do is watch him play. (you could see the jump from the moment he stepped on the court this year) Faster, ball handling, shooting....cleaned up his game. (Working hard, being healthy & maturing physically)

    It's a quantum leap and anyone who says otherwise doesn't know hoops or is in denial.
     
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  11. aelliott

    aelliott Contributing Member

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    Win Shares is calculated on a per possession basis. It attempts to show performance when a player is on the floor vs the league average on the same number of possessions.

    Because it's relative to the number of possessions played, players with a small sample size can have skewed numbers as in the cases you pointed out.

    It's similar to a player going 1 for 2 on 3 pointers for the season. Even though the player is shooting 50% on 3s, nobody thinks they are a great 3 point shooter. The sample size is too small. That's why the NBA has minimums on the categories where they recognize league leaders.

    On the flip side. I'll point out that any predictive Stat such as WS, or +/- are really team stats. The players that you are on the court with contribute to your final number. That's why a guy like Luka can have a net negative +/- when everyone knows that he's one of the best players in the game.

    Basically, I agree with you that I wouldn't go by WS, +/- or any other predictive stat. Where we differ is our reason for not using them. I don't value them because they are team stats using a formula to try and calculate individual performance. Skewed numbers for players with really small sample sizes is to be expected.
     
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  12. Reeko

    Reeko Member
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  13. Reeko

    Reeko Member
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  14. apollo33

    apollo33 Member

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    I haven't paid much attention to Herro, but why is his TS so low. I thought with how accurate of a 3 point shooter he is, he'd be around 58-60. He's been at 53 for 3 seasons
     
  15. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    He doesn't get to the line much.
     
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  16. Reeko

    Reeko Member
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    yeah, it’s primarily because he doesn’t get to the line

    same reason why CJ McCollum has career shooting splits of 45/40/82, but a career TS% of just 55%

    yet someone like Harden who is shooting 41/34/88 this season has a 59% TS
     
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  17. flamingdts

    flamingdts Member

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    I'm not sure what Herro's rookie stats have to do anything. His efficiency has dropped every year since his rookie season, that's not a good thing.

    Why are you implying that minutes work negatively against win shares, that's literally the opposite of how it works. You can read this article here to learn what win share is.

    The stat formula literally favors players with more minutes. The fact that Butler played 12 fewer games and has much higher win share is a really bad thing for Herro.

    However, let's entertain the idea that you are right, and fewer games played benefits players more. There are literally 8 players with higher win shares than Tyler Herro, most of whom played similar games to him.

    He's literally 9th on his team in win shares, 9th on his team in BPM and 7th on his team in VORP, yet he has the highest usage and shots on his team.

    if you are this confident that I am wrong, feel free to find me another perennial all-star/all NBA team player that has the highest usage on their team, or the highest shot attempts, but are not even top 5 on their own team in VORP, BPM or WS.
     
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  18. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    you're not sure why his rookie stats have to do with anything? Oh you mean comparing a rookie to a rookie doesn't have to do with anything? Comparing guys at the same stage aka being consistent. his efficiency "drop" isn't even worth a discussion because it's that insignificant.

    You're just trying to be dramatic because its convenient for you. So this is what you did. Instead of comparing a 19 year old to a 19 year. You wanted to use a 19 year old vs a 21 year old where the TS% is convenient to point out. Rather than not acknowledging herro's as a 19 year old has a higher TS%. yeah convenient. Next

    "The fact that Butler played 12 fewer games and has much higher win share is a really bad thing for Herro." just flat out dumb.

    since you want to talk about jalen green. Guess who's next to last on the team in WS's. omg red flag per you!

    I already know you're wrong. that's not even a question. Your one of those that pulls up numbers with exactly 0 context and don't know any better when it comes to actual player evaluation. You're highest level of basketball play is probably the local 24 hr fitness
     
    #338 YOLO, Jan 14, 2022 at 12:05 PM
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2022 at 12:12 PM
  19. apollo33

    apollo33 Member

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    Actually kind of impressed that he's able to bounce back from such a crappy year last season. I wonder if they are going to keep him as a 6th man on the Heat. His role and numbers remind me of Jordan Clarkson's from last year on the Jazz who won 6MOTY.
     
  20. flamingdts

    flamingdts Member

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    You literally just went on a complete random tangent, and spent the rest of this post talking about Jalen Green and personal insults.

    I'm not going to waste time on this, so I'm going to keep this concise.

    If you can find me a multi-time all-star or all-NBA player that is not even top 5 of their own team in VORP, WS or BPM, I'll concede you are right. I'm being generous, because Herro is only 7th, 9th and 9th on these categories.

    Otherwise, if you are just going to go off a random tangent again and fling personal insults, we can stop this discussion.
     

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