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Why can’t we resign both Springer & Brantley?

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by finsraider, Oct 9, 2020.

  1. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    On Brantley, Alvarez will replace him as the DH as Tucker has already taken his spot in the OF. I'm not sure the Astros want Brantley in the OF, but his bat plays if they can bring him back. Astros need to replace/re-sign Springer, Reddick, and Maldonado. Reddick and Maldonaldo shouldn't be difficult/costly to replace. Springer is the only position player I worry about replacing.
     
  2. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    mlbtraderumors posted their arbitration estimates. They put up 3 different numbers because of uncertainty on how it will work with the 60 game season.

    • Carlos Correa – $8.0MM / $10.2MM / $8.8MM
    • Chris Devenski – $2.1MM / $2.1MM / $2.0MM
    • Aledmys Diaz – $2.8MM / $3.1MM / $2.8MM
    • Dustin Garneau – $700K / $800K / $700K
    • Lance McCullers Jr. – $4.7MM / $7.0MM / $5.2MM
    • Roberto Osuna – $10.0MM / $10.0MM / $10.0MM
    The middle number is taking the 60 game season and extrapolating the stats to a 162 game season. So using those numbers they have Correa getting a 2.2 million dollar raise, Devenski getting a 100k raise, Diaz getting a 500k raise, Garneau getting a 50k raise, McCullers getting a 2.9 million dollar raise, and Osuna getting no raise.

    I expect Devenski and Osuna to be non-tendered. I also hope we can replace Garneau with something better. So if we just retain Correa, McCullers, and Diaz the total raises will be 5.6 million using the largest of the 3 numbers.
     
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  3. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    It’s about scarcity of resources. A legit middle of the order catcher who isn’t a defensive liability is extremely rare; there are only 2-3 of those guys in the game. Granted, players like Springer are rare too. I guess the bottom line is that I would take Realmuto and a $5M CF over Springer and a $5M catcher. Definitely debatable though.
     
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  4. mightybosstone

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    If we were talking about these players in a vacuum where only potential and on-paper production mattered, I'd totally agree with you 100%. It's much easier to get an above average bat on the cheap in the outfield than it is at catcher, and Realmuto is much rarer for his position than Springer is. But there's two factors I'm not sure you can understate:

    1. Continuity of having the same group of guys in the clubhouse and what that does for morale and camaraderie—like the previous poster said.
    2. Postseason production. We have no sample size of this for Realmuto. But we have a very good sample size for Springer, and the results have been pretty extraordinary.

    I think Springer's regular season production is replaceable. But I'm not sure his overall impact on the team and his postseason numbers are.
     
  5. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Well then it’s settled. They should sign both.

    CF Springer
    3B Bregman
    2B Altuve
    DH Alvarez
    SS Correa
    C Realmuto
    RF Tucker
    1B Gurriel
    LF Diaz/McCormick/Straw/Toro

    That’s only about $115M in payroll for the position players. Assuming they have insurance on Verlander, they could afford that. They would have zero money to resign Correa or add pitchers, but they could afford it.
     
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  6. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    Regular season I agree

    Some players can hit good pitching in the playoffs though, and Springer is definitely one of those guys
     
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  7. punkoholic

    punkoholic Member

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    I want Realmuto as well but apparently he's looking for a $200 million contract. How much lower will he be willing to go to? Because at $200 I'll pass. Will a team be willing to meet his demands, even with no guarantee that there will be fans next season?


    Also if they can't sign 1 (or both) of Springer and Brantley, any interest in Marcel Ozuna? How much will he command. His play this season increased his price/probably won't want a 1 year deal.
     
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  8. Buck Turgidson

    Buck Turgidson Mineshaft Enthusiast

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    Why not keep Springer and add/keep a cheaper catcher if money is no option?

    Not sure I understand your thinking.
     
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  9. SooneRockStro

    SooneRockStro Member

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    With the emergence of some of these rookie pitchers and Framber as a legit top of the rotation guy, resigning the entire core of position players should be prioritized. It would be a travesty to let any of these guys go. Obviously it’s not up to the Astros if these guys resign or not, but Crane should do everything possible to keep them all. It’s an historically great lineup. You don’t just walk away from that so you can save a few dollars.
     
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  10. RustyHarden

    RustyHarden Member

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    this looks sexy on paper. But paying a catcher a star salary doesn't work historically. Give me Springer and a scrapyard catcher over Posey/Posada/Piazza types.
    We have Machete for cheap. He's got the glove/pop. No need for a wet dream/allstar lineup. We had Chirinos who matched most allstar level C hitting wise. It's the fantasy lineup punt position and always will be due to needed rest...

    Edit: give me a dawg behind homeplate. Hungry. A personality that simply wants to win. Honest. Good relationship qualities. Springer. If he continues on his prime for 4 more seasons. Is irreplaceable.
     
    #90 RustyHarden, Oct 16, 2020
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2020
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  11. raining threes

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    Love this.

    I would try to bring back Springer but if that didn't happen I would re-sign Brantley (3 years 75 Million) and use Josh James/Abreu/Nova as trade bait to get a young up and coming CF like the Red Sox did getting Verdugo.
     
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  12. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    The idea is that the sum of Realmuto + cheap CF is greater than the sum of Springer + cheap C. It’s not a slam dunk, but the premise is that catchers who hit at a star level are so much more rare than CF who hit at a star level that they should be valued more highly.
     
  13. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    Realmuto is this sub-forum's version of Donatas....
     
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  14. cmlmel77

    cmlmel77 Member

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    I worry that the the equation is really "sum of Springer + average hitting C + calm/effective young pitchers" vs "average hitting CF + good hitting C + unknown impact on pitchers" ... and given that the young pitchers are the key to success over the next few years, that's not a tradeoff I would make.

    Perhaps Realmuto would be just as effective and/or I am over-valuing Machete's impact, but that's not a risk I would be willing to take, especially as pitchers as experienced as Grienke and McCullers have explicitly said how valuable he has been.
     
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  15. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Maldonado is signed thru next season, so in the (very unlikely) event Houston did sign Realmuto, Maldonado would be the backup and would be around not only to continue working with the young pitchers but also to ease Realmuto in.
     
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  16. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Donatas is a better metaphor for Whitley or Appel. I'd go with someone like Carmelo Anthony or Dwight Howard....someone that at one time was actually good that was wanted, but if the Astros ever get him, it will likely not be his best years.
     
  17. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    For some reason, I thought Maldonaldo was a free agent after this year. If Astros get to pick between paying Springer and Realmuto, I would pick Springer. Though, I wouldn't say no to Realmuto if Crane was willing.
     
  18. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Rarity isn't the only thing. Also, Realmuto only hits at a star level because he's a catcher. Springer's offensive stats for his career are about 39 percentage points higher than the average CF. Realmuto's offensive stats for his career are about 19 percentage points higher than the the average catcher. An average hitting catcher and Springer will likely produce more offensively than an an average hitting CF and Realmuto.

    Also, during Realmuto's career....the Astros catchers combined have hit better combined than the Marlins catchers combined and the Phillies catchers combined. This isn't Realmuto's fault, but just shows he's not so far ahead of other catchers that good years from spare parts Gattis, Gattis's twin brother, and Churro have basically nullified his star hitting.
     
    #98 Joe Joe, Oct 16, 2020
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2020
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  19. SamCassell

    SamCassell Contributing Member

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    Great hitting catchers get worn down by the position. There's a reason Biggio was moved to 2nd early on. Lucroy was the golden boy catcher until age 30 and hasn't been the same offensive weapon since. Mauer was league MVP in his 20s, but by age 30 they moved him to another position to preserve his career (and his offensive production still dropped off). It's not a position where I'd project long-term offense.

    Why again are we talking about giving a big contract to Realmuto, who's going to be 30 next year on opening day? Give the money to Springer and keep the core together.
     
  20. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    While great hitting catchers are indeed a rare commodity.... how many teams are they really making that much better over the years?

    Feels like a luxury... of sorts. I still would much rather have an average (or even below average) catcher who handles a pitching staff (especially a young one) really well.
     

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