I think how each candidate is fairing in their home state may tell us, in other states/areas, a lot about their performance record and voter satisfaction. But we learned that already in 2000. Right? Here we see Edwards' home state numbers... ---- link to CPOD October 29, 2004 Steady Bush/Cheney Lead In North Carolina (CPOD) Oct. 29, 2004 – George W. Bush and Dick Cheney could carry the state of North Carolina in the 2004 United States presidential election, according to a poll by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. released by WRAL. 52 per cent of respondents would vote for the Republican incumbents, while 43 per cent would support the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards. One per cent of respondents would vote for Libertarian candidate Michael Badnarik and running mate Richard Campagna, while four per cent are undecided. The election is scheduled for Nov. 2. Support for the Republicans increased by one per cent in a week, while backing for the Democrats remained stable. In September, the Bush/Cheney ticket held a nine per cent advantage over the Kerry/Edwards pairing. On Jul. 6, Kerry picked North Carolina senator Edwards as his vice-presidential nominee. Bush won the state’s 14 electoral votes in 2000, with 56 per cent of all cast ballots. No Democrat has carried North Carolina since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Polling Data If the 2004 presidential election were held today, would you vote for the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards, the Republican ticket of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, or the Libertarian ticket of Michael Badnarik and Richard Campagna? Oct. 25-26 (first figures) Oct. 18-19 (second figures) Sept. 2004 (third figures) Bush / Cheney (R) 52% 51% 52% Kerry / Edwards (D) 43% 43% 43% Badnarik / Campagna (L) 1% 1% 1% Undecided 4% 5% 4% Source: Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. / WRAL Methodology: Telephone interviews to 625 registered North Carolina voters, conducted on Oct. 25 and Oct. 26, 2004. Margin of error is 4 per cent.
At the risk of sounding like a jerk, who cares about who is winning a homestate or not? I never have, nor will I probably ever.
The correlation is pretty clear to me. If the people that know a candidate best don't have enough confidence in him/her to elect him/her to a higher office... then why should the rest of the country feel good about doing so? Common sense gives us reason enough to care about this issue. Not saying you have no common sense, at the risk of sounding like a jerk... but why so flippant? Those voters fortunate, or unfortunate, enough to see a candidate up close and personal over a several month period usually have a good handle on a candidate's capabilty and/or performance. I feel that this is something VERY worth our time.
I really don't think that people from Texas know a lot about George W. Bush. In fact, I really don't think anyone knows anything about their local politicians in any state. And if they do, that knowledge is very, very minimal, and only known by a small portion of the electorate who actually follow politics. Perhaps that's why I don't see any correlation. PLUS it's no surprise to see a conservative state vote for the conservative ticket. or vice versa.
Point taken. And a good point at that. I just find it more weighty than you, that's all. Perhaps more of the country will side with one of our views in a big enough way to avoid another 2000.
Does anyone really vote for a ticket based on who is the VP candidate, much less where that candidate is from? Bob Dole only got 31% of the vote in New York in 1996. Did Jack Kemp cost him that election?
