Who Will Be the #1 Overall Draft Pick?

I am in the Appel camp. if he doesn't sign, he could go no higher than third next season as Astros would have top two picks. I am hoping for a Rodon, Appel, Norris, Harrell rotation in 2015.

 

he wouldn't be draft eligible next year.

 

It will be interesting to see what leverage Appel has. He's a year older and more importantly a college senior, which certainly reduces his leverage. Boras I'm sure will play the "independent league" card, but that has a bit less teeth since Appel is already a senior. If we can get Appel for a less than 1-1 deal, then all of a sudden he looks really nice, as we can play the same game we did last year in the draft. Otherwise I really like Jonathan Gray from OU. He's come on very strong.

I'd really like to see us get a top quality, top of the rotation arm in the system. Our system is weak on pitching.

 

Who Appel? He's draft eligible until he signs or is not drafted. Even if he goes Indy league he'll still have to go through the draft again. Rodon is eligible next year.

 

how would that work since he'd be getting paid by the independent club? he'd just be bought out of his contract?

are there any recent examples of this?

the j.d. drew controversy was post-college iirc, but i thought he just sat a year.

 

They changed the CBA to exclude that situation as a loophole after Boras did that with Drew and Travis Lee in the 90's. He could theoretically keep entering the draft in perpetuity until he signs or is not drafted. See Matt Harrington, http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/eticket/story?page=090423/harrington, who kept getting drafted and not signing even though he played in the indy league.

 

oh damn...i've seen a piece on harrington (on e:60 i think), and he somehow didn't even cross my mind. thanks for the correction.

although, that all being said, i would imagine that appel's leverage began and ended last draft. would be a senseless risk to not take what he's offered as a top 2 or 3 pick this year. he's not going to get better than that a year from now after playing super-hardball at the top of the draft 2 years in a row.

 

This.

If Appel and Gray are offered the same deal and Appel flinches and Gray accepts, then in all likelihood Jonathan Gray will get taken first. Jonathan Gray is rising up the boards with every start and has already surpassed Manaea and Stanek. IMO he is slightly below Appel on the draft board only because Appel has been on fire this season, especially his last couple of games.

This is starting to remind me of last year when Carlos Correa starting getting some run when he was making the rounds working out right before the draft.

IMO the only way the Astros take Appel is if he agrees to a dollar amount and to sign right away --- I don't know if that will happen with Boras as his agent.

The draft is just under three months away so anything can still happen, but its nice to see some guys starting to separate themselves from the pack and giving the Astros some options.

 

I expect Astros will want this no matter which player and agent it is. So far, I would say it is Ludhow 1 Boras 0 concerning negotiations for the 1-1. I expect Astros to use similar strategy to last year unless some one separates themselves from the others. Unless clear 1-1, offer 90% of slot and try to get a good high schooler with second pick.

 

back to form.

 

Jonathan Gray is creeping up draftboards with his continued dominance of college hitters. I don't know too much about him but apparently he can maintain upper 90's and triple digit heat late into games. I don't know if he is a 1-1 candidate yet though since I think there are questions about his secondary offerings and one doesn't get drafted first purely off of their fastball. If he can show a plus secondary pitch and continue to control his fastball then he will be a serious candidate for 1-1.

 

He is showing a plus slider, although the change up is a question mark. There are also some concerns about his athleticism and conditioning going forward. That said, he's probably the consensus #2 draft prospect right now behind Appel and should be in the conversation for #1.

 

Thanks that's good to know. If that's the case as long as the changeup checks out I would probably prefer gray. Bigger pitchers are generally healthier than a skinny fit one. Plus he can more easily improve in those areas than in his stuff. Traditional Athleticism is really overrated when it comes to pitchers. Hopefully one of Appel, Manea, or Gray can really step up from the pack in the next few months leading up to the draft. I would rather stay away from the Frazier/ Bryant/ Meadows trio. I know that you got BPA in the MLB draft as a rule of thumb but if the case close i think adding an ace potential arm is more important for this system and rebuilding effort.

 

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/...ppel-battle-scouting-report-on-jonathan-gray/