How many points a team scores is never irrelevant, because, you see, games are won by scoring more than the opponent. Now, from a relative standpoint -- points per possession does normalize for pace, but only useful if you look at both what you score and what your opponents score. All that said, while I hunt for the advanced stats to prove the point that our defense has slipped dramatically the past 2 seasons, I have no idea from your post if you were disagreeing with my point that adding no show defenders like Jefferson or Lee is a net negative or if you are merely railing on my audacity to say that the amount of points your opponent scores matters.
We have a pressing need for a backup center. Even if Yao had been completely healthy all this time, Deke left a hole when he retired. Jefferson would be more than adequate. Haywood would also do. I am happy with the team as it is because it is stacked and talented at nearly all positions except for the above. I would be very disappointed if we started the season with that area not being addressed. This team is very close to being a contender, but we must patch that hole at the 5 position.
Thank god someone said it. We DO NOT need more offense. We were 8th in the league in offense without our #1 option for the entire season. We were in the top half of the league (13th) in rebounding without Yao or Patterson (arguably are 2 best rebounders going into 2010-11). DEFENSE YOU ASK? We were tied for 21st. This is the #1 area in which we need to improve. And I don't believe that all of our defensive woes will be solved by adding a 30 year old center who had his foot surgically destroyed and put back together only 12 months ago. Yao being back will help, but he will not vault us back into the top 10 by just showing up. Al can score (although no longer a 20 ppg guy), he can rebound (although no longer a 10 rpg guy), he can NOT defend or block shots... ...and he makes $13,000,000 a year.
It comes down to consistency. Ariza hasn't shown that he can be a consistent shooter other...although that CAN change with Yao in the mix. Shane Battier may be on the trading block to bring in more pieces and has shown signs of decline. Also plays different position when compared to Raja Bell. I'm not saying that we should go "all-in" on this guy, but its never a bad idea to have depth on your bench, especially when its not going to cost much.
1.Paul- Dream senario 2.Rubio-Hopefully packaged with Jefferson= Title contenders 3.Randolph=Young mobile,talented versatile big,huge upside 4. Jefferson-Best big availabe,if you believe he will be better 2nd year after injury you've got to make this deal. Rox have good solid players but stars win championships. They need to take the risk. In Morey we trust
We should wait to see what develops with Lowry and Scola. I love both guys but I don't think Morey will overpay for them. If some team offers a big contract to Lowry, such as Philly, I think we should consider a S&T deal using Lowry and an expiring (or Ariza) and see if it is enough to get them to move out Iggy.
To add more fuel to the "No to Al Jefferson" fire... Blocks per 48 minutes last year: Al Jefferson = 1.91 Jared Jeffries = 1.90
this preposterous, Philly wants to add lowry and get rid of iggy? thats probably exactly what doug collins was thinking when he took that job, if i can only trade our best player for the rockets back up pg, well be set.
1. Go hard at Golden State for Anthony Randolph and other players. Or even try to get Al Jefferson. 2. Try to go after Randy Foye or Mike Miller 3. Sign a backup center (Miller, Haywood, Anthony, or Barron) - Tyson Chandler is too expensive, so is Okafor.
Let me add fuel to the "Yes to Al Jefferson" fire Rebounds per 36 minutes in their last years: Al Jefferson = 10.3 Yao Ming = 10.6 and Al was on a bad wheel...
Either way, Raja is very redundant and just as old as Battier. The only decline signs he has shown is that he got hurt last year.
Don't want to sound like a Prophet of Doom but...going to war with "what we got" is going to war with a Lottery team. A Lottery team with a notably aging Battier and an exceptionally good first 1/4 2009-10 season start because of system familiarty. Banking on the health of Yao is riskier now than when McGrady's back and Morey's $Ball turned a #8 in a deep draft into a pot of glue. I love Yao and hope he retires a Rocket. But I wouldn't bank on his health as the sole launch platform to success for 2010-11. The Rockets have been there and done that. And hopefully have figured out how to put it into a spreadsheet. Yao played 77 games before going out in the '09 playoffs. Prior to that, he played 55, 48, and 57 regular season games. Don't have the time or desire to prove it. But at a glance, Yao's playoff ppg are higher in the seasons where he plays fewer regular season minutes. Unless Martin shows more, he and Landry are close to a wash. 20 ppg outside and driving vs Landry's 17 ppg in the paint and transition...a near net zero except for Martin's ability to get to the line. The $Ball reason he was acquired. I was bluntly called "stupid" when I didn't buy the "we took the Lakers to 7 games" hype and suggested they needed more talent. Guess I'll be called worse this summer. They still need talent. Not sure what they can get for Jeffries' and Battier's expiring contracts with the Knicks' pick thrown in. But it's got to be better than standing pat and hoping for Yao to recover from injury more like Ilgauskus than Mark Eaton.
And just to finish my point: From basketball-reference.com, (http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/HOU/) below you can see just how our defense has begun to crack and fail us: Basically, ORtg (offense rating) is points scored per 100 possessions and DRtg is points allowed per 100 possessions. Normailzed for pace, the points the Rockets have score per 100 has stayed fairly constant since JVG's second year (ignoring the horrible 2005-06 season which preceeded his departure) at around 106-108. What fell off a cliff in the last 2 years is the points we allowed per 100 which notched up from the 100-103 range to 108 last season. That massive 4-5 point drop off cost us 11 wins and the playoffs. Season W L W-L% SRS ORtg DRtg 2009-10 42 40 .512 -0.01 107.6 108.0 2008-09 53 29 .646 3.73 108.4 104.0 2007-08 55 27 .671 4.84 106.8 101.6 2006-07 52 30 .634 5.04 106.0 100.7 2005-06 34 48 .415 -1.31 101.6 103.3 2004-05 51 31 .622 4.26 106.2 101.7 2003-04 45 37 .549 2.28 100.9 99.0 Now let's look at replacing Scola with either Lee or Jefferson. Because maybe those guys in the line up would be better than Scola in terms of net offense / defense contributions. For Scola, his ORtg / DRtg for last season was 111/101 meaning he was a net positive 10 points per 100 possessions versus the people he defended. The last season he played with Yao he was 114/102 or net positive 12 points. Al Jefferson? Not so much. Past 3 seasons, he was 106/108 (recovering from injury), 109/108 (injury shorted year), and 109/108 (full health). This guy is a net neutral. So, on a pace normalized basis, he scores less than Scola and gives up way more points on defense than Scola. Remember, net minus 4 points total per game dropped us 11 games last season. Jefferson is net minus 10 points relative to Scola. Not a recipe for success. Lee? 116 / 108, 118 / 108, and 123 / 110. Better than Jefferson. Not better than Scola. I would not let Scola leave for either. As a back up? Given what Lee will be asking for (money wise), I think we'll pass. I certainly would not go to luxury tax to sign him, because he'd split time with Scola.
I'd grab Brad Miller and leave it at that. Then I'd give Patterson, Hill, Bud, and Taylor a chance to improve. Wait till the trade deadline and see what's available, what we need. The guys that would be on the top of the list right now aren't FAs (Granger, Jefferson, Paul, Anthony) and can probably be had at the tradeline anyway.
