Yeah, but the minutiae don't bother if we're not calling one another names over it. I'm enjoying the read, anyways. So, it *is* all about the TD? (settle down, I'm just kidding) This part is what I really wanted to respond to: --TDs certainly not! but --YPC: don't you think it might? If he's catching fewer passes, and each type of pass goes down proportionately, he'll have a lot fewer dink-and-dunk passes and just a couple fewer long ones (OR, perhaps due to scheme, just as many long ones, no?) -- in which case, the YPC would go up, right? It's at least a reasonable plausibility, isn't it?
Prior to 2007, he also had a QB who was scared to hold on to the ball more than 2 seconds and loved to throw 5-yard dump-off passes. Changing QB's had a lot more to do with his improvement than him stepping up his game, IMO.
No, I dont have any problems conceding the fact that some fault can be attributed to AJ. I dont think he is a God, but I do feel like he is a beast on the field...and I put him alongside the best at reeling in the pigskin. I do see us putting up more points this season and I think a good chunk of them will be towards AJ. I expect about 100 receptions, 1500 yards, and 12 TDs. Thats my final answer. Actually, I'll say one last thing...if, with what we have working on offense this year, Andre still cant get that 10+ TDs, then I will assume that its something that he is lacking that isnt allowing him to put up points. Up to this point, Ive pretty much blamed everything else (QB, playcalling, stupid mistakes, etc...).
I think this has to be at least a factor, although I think AJ *did* improve in '07. However: That's not how I remember it. I remember DC either being too shell-shocked or too stupid to throw it, because 3.5 seconds later he was horizontal *again*. The dink-and-dunk thing was the coaching staff's answer to a bad QB with a bad o-line and no running game and the need to somehow still move the football. At least, that's how I remember it.
Hey -- What are the major grading points for a would-be elite WR? And, can you smarter folks (not being lazy, just admitting I don't know it!) compare the elites and Andre on these? What do we have... -- separation? -- actually *catching* it? -- "ups"? -- breakaway speed? -- doing something after catching it? (what do you call that?) -- routerunning? ...I'm betraying serious ignorance here. But I'm interested in your response.
I just looked up the "drops" statistic... As far as AJ is concerned, he dropped 5 catches last year...which meant that ~40 players dropped more passes than him last season. Pretty much means that AJ caught 115 out of 120 possible balls. Not bad. Some notables: Braylon Edwards led the NFL with 16. T.O. led the NFC with 10. Jabar Gaffney dropped 6...caught 38. Bad.
Yards after catch (YAC). I found a site that says total yards after catch, so I will do some math and post those numbers: Andre Johnson - 4.3 yac Larry Fitzgerald - 4.8 yac Greg Jennings - 4.78 Randy Moss - 5.2 Reggie Wayne - 4.1 Calvin Johnson - 6.5 Anquan Boldin - 6.7 Wes Welker - 6.8 I kind of got bored doing the math, lol, if anyone wants to know another player, Ill post it. I think I found a new argument for Ric. Actually, I think this should be an important statistic for "game breaker". Youre welcome, Ric, haha. I just F'ed myself with posting this stat.
But that would suggest that Wes Welker is a game-breaking receiver while Larry Fitzgerald really isn't? YAC has a lot to do with where and when you catch balls. Wes Welker is a 3rd receiver generally catching short passes in space, so he has room to run. Don't get me wrong - that's a *great* skill to have, but Randy Moss standing in the endzone 30 yards downfield and leaping to catch a pass and getting zero YAC is more of a game breaking move than Wes Welker catching a pass 5 yards past the line of scrimmage and running 7 yards with it.
Oh - and just FYI, Yahoo's player info has YAC as one of their listed stats, so no need for math. Here's the entire league (WRs only) by YAC: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/stats/b...ce=NFL&year=season_2008&sort=46&timeframe=All
Very well could be - I've blocked it out to some extent. All I remember is a QB that would only throw dink-and-dunk passes being praised for his high completion percentage.
(deep breath....) in 2004 - johnson's second full-year in the league - carr set career highs in attempts, yards, yds/att (7.6 - schaub: 7.8 and 8.0, fyi) and TDs. and johnson - who had 79 receptions; third most of his career - scored 6 TDs. it's easy to paint david carr's career as a giant, heaping pile of fail - and, for the most part, it was (notallhisfault). but he wasn't a complete failure. the absolutely last thing i want to do is get sucked into any discussion involving david carr........ (another deep breath) but he was better than tyler thigpen and dan orlovsky were last year, and they each had a WR hit double digits. i've long conceded there are myriad reasons for johnson not breaking the 10-TD barrier (and sure, yes - carr is one of them)... but the one constant, through all the regime and personnel changes, has been..... andre johnson.
i think the system has certainly created more space for him but i also think he (and the team) has gotten better. he struggled early in his career with it, imo. he's certainly fast, i've seen him get behind a defense (thanks in large part to playaction) but he rarely *outruns* anyone. this may be the system - its not a downfield system. then again, as i understand it, the WCO is designed to get a WR in space and let them run after the catch. at least, that's the way walsh devised it way back when. otherwise, he's as good as any i've seen. i think his signature moment as a texan was his 4th down catch last year against the dolphins that more or less "saved" their season (as much as you can save an 0-4 season). he ripped the ball right off the defender's shoulder pad with an arm in his face - pure, absolute strength and concentration. of course, he fell down immediately... but seriously: that, to me, is quintessential andre johnson - big, strong (strong hands) receiver.
When I first read the original post, my first thought was Andre Johnson. Without him the Texans would be a disaster. And after reading further along, looks like I am not the only one thinking like this as well.
lol. relax - i don't think you can extract any one stat and have it mean much of anything. as Major pointed out - welker is averaging 6.8 yards after the catch but only 10.5 yards/catch. so he's basically catching, roughly, 4-yard slants. big whoop. if he didn't have the entire defense ****ting bricks at the thought of moss sprinting free behind them, i think he'd be closer to 4-yard slants and a 1-2 YAC. i think johnson being in line with other receivers in YAC, but trailing in terms of the ratio of 20+-yard receptions, underscores his inability - for whatever reason - to break a play open with any frequency. i would imagine most great WRs are defended similarly - ie with a safety over top to try and contain the play. that johnson is held, %-wise, to fewer 20+-yard receptions would indicate he's more often contained than the other guys.
It wouldn't have anything to do with the types of routes he's running for a large portion of those receptions? AJ seems to be out in the middle with safeties breaking in on him a *lot*. At least, to my uneducated brain it seems that way.
