I like looking at minutes instead of focusing on how the coach mixes them with starters and bench players. History tells us the Rockets will have 10 guys who will play over 95% of the minutes of the 19,700+ minutes. Barring any trade, those players are: Yao Cato Taylor Eddie Rice Pike Adrian Cat Steve Mooch On average, these ten players will play about 265 minutes per game. Because of injuries, illness, suspensions, etc., not every guy will play every game, and will miss an average of 5-10 games each. The total minutes they will average will therefore be over the 240 minutes in a game. How many mpg do you think each guy will play each game? here is my guesstimate: mpg 30-38 Yao 14-24 Cato 16-24 Taylor 18-28 Eddie 12-24 Rice 18-32 Pike 12-24 Adrian 36-44 Cat 36-44 Steve 10-20 Moochie averages 34 Yao 22 Cato 23 Taylor 26 Griffin 16 Rice 28 Pike 20 Adrian 40 Cat 41 Steve 15 Mooch 265 minutes total
Good guestimate. The only thing I disagree with are Cato, Francis and Mobley. I just don't see Cato playing any more minutes than he did last year or Cat and Steve playing around 40. I would say 15-18 for Cato is more realistic and hopefully Steve and Cat will be around 35-37.
Hasn't Cat averaged over 40 mins/game for the last few years? I would think JVG would want to let him rest a little more, maybe that's why Pike and Grif were brought in. I also think Yao will get more minutes than last year because he won't be a rookie fresh off the plane like last year. Thus Cato's minutes may go down as well.
I would love for Cat and Steve to average about 38 minutes a game. I'm one of those who thought they played way too many minutes last season. Cat had 2 bad ankles and was one of the leaders in minutes played. That's crazy. Francis needs to put more energy into defense, if he can "get it", and Mooch needs to step up so he can. I hope Yao can average 34, but I'm not going to hold my breath. If Cato plays any minutes at the 4 spot (who knows? new coach) he could average 20 minutes or more. I'm hoping Taylor is much improved this season and averages more minutes than Griffin. It'd be nice if he earned his contract. Griffin needs to show me more. I don't know how the 3 spot is going to play out. I'm looking forward to seeing Pike and Adrian in the rotation at the 2 and 3. Piatkowski will surprise us, I think, and be much more active than some expect. AGriff's health (back) is a possible issue... we'll see. Boki will get a shot at playing time. I hope he earns some. Damn, I can't wait for the season to start!
Good question, better than the trade speculation. At least different from the trade suggestions. I don't think 10 will play. Usually 8 or 9 is the rotation. So who of your ten list gets "cut". At least one, maybe two of them. The two/three spot looks crowded. Maybe one there. Gotta figure Rice will spend some time injured. Hmm, maybe we can trade one or both of those extra guys, how about we package...
How much longer till Yao can play 38 minutes? When was the last time a "franchise player" couldn't play 38 minutes? I'm hoping he'll be able to play 35 minutes this time around. Yao(35)/Cato(13) MoT(24)/Griff(22)/Cato(2) Rice(18)/Griffin(18)/Boki(8)/Pike(4) Mobley(35)/Pike(13) Francis(38)/Moochie(10) It all depends on matchups though. We'll see a lot of Steve at the 2, more Pike at the 3, and sometimes we'll see more Cato at the 4. But in genereal and on average, this is what I hope and expect to see.
there are 10 because it will take 10 rotation players to fill the minutes over 82 games. I mentioned in the model that the players would miss an average of 5-10 games per player. That means a 9 man rotation requires 10 men over the season. On any given night, one of the ten will not play for one reason or another. If all are available, Moochie gets only about 8 minutes, while the other 9 get something like this 34 Yao 20 Cato 20 Taylor 22 Griffin 14 Rice 26 Pike 18 Adrian 38 Cat 40 Steve 08 Mooch will JVG use a 10 man rotation? I think so, because we have 3 players who are good enough to get minutes but not good enough to command over 30 minutes: Adrian, Glen and Pike. We have a point guard who will get minutes because Steve has to have some rest. We have 3 men who vie for minutes in the post who aren't good enough to command 30 minutes a game either, in Cato, Eddie, and Mo. So we will likely use a 9-10 man rotation every night.
here are my guesstimates for the season minutes 2700 Yao 1200 Cato 1900 Mo 1900 Eddie 0400 Boki 1200 Rice 1400 Adrian 1800 Pike 2800 Cat 3300 Steve 1200 Mooch
Ralph Sampson's first two Rocket seasons were 32.8 & 37.6 mpg. Olajuwon never went over 38 mpg until his sixth season - 38.1 and he didn't do it again until his 9th and 10th seasons. Ewing didn't exceed 38 until season 5 and David Robinson season 4. Shaq plays a lot of minutes but has only exceeded 38 mpg in 4 of his 11 seasons. I'm sure there were others, but these came to mind quickly. I expect (and hope) Yao will never play Mobley and Francis type minutes...which are too many even for them.
Wow, thanks GATER. I didn't realize it was so common, especially for bigmen, to average less than 38 minutes in their first few seasons. Right now, I'd be satisfied if Yao gave us 35 COMPLETE minutes - as in - his level of play NOT going down due to being tired. I think Francis would be most effective around 38 minutes. As for Mobley, I'm more comfortable with him in the 30-35 range.
Francis' minutes are gonna depend on how good the rest of the team is doing. If the team is getting slaughtered, you know Steve's gonna try to play 45+ minutes, but if the rest of the team is doing well, he'll probably play around 38-40 minutes per game. The ONLY problem I had with Rudy T had something to do with his player's PT. I noticed that there would be a lot of times when the team would be up by like, 5 points and he would take Yao, Steve and Cat all out of the game at once, then the other team would come back and take over the game. I hope JVG is more sensible about when to take his players out (and I hope he doesn't leave Yao in the game too long, to avoid injury and fatigue.)
You know Sane, it would be nice for Yao to play 35 complete minutes.... but think about it the Rockets have a playoff spot most likely.. We are going to need Yao especially rested for the playoffs... Cuz the way i saw Yao last season, he simply didnt finish out right... I knew he could of done way better... So I would be satisfy if Yao would play 30 minutes per game... And Cato going 18... Now when we get to the playoffs I would love Yao (since he has been rested) to play about 32-36 minutes a game... I know Yao can do it... well here are my guesstimates... Yao/Cato 30/18 Eddie/Mot 26/22 Pike/Adrian/Glen/Boki 16/16/8/8 Cat/Pike/Adrian 35/8/5 Franchise/Mooch 36/12
