If we can somehow make the packers final 2011 record 18-1, I think that makes me even with the sports gods. I'd consider everything even.
I ran a couple of different scenarios where the Ravens, Pats, and Texans all go 13-3. Each time it was Ravens #1, Pats #2, Texans #3.
How can there be more than one scenario where they all go 13-3? They all have to win their remaining 3 games. Or is strength of schedule involved (in which other teams results matter)?
I think it gets down to SOS or SOV......but I believe the Texans do finish 3rd in a 3 way with Baltimore and New England. DD
Guys, settle the kettle - let's actually clinch a playoff bearth before we start talking about who we want to play. [/automated response]
Since there are 3 teams tied with the same record, tiebreakers would be involved (I assume). I would think the records of common opponents, and strength of schedule/strength of victory would come into play. Maybe, maybe no.
We are currently the 3rd seed behind the Ravens and Pats according to ESPN researchers. We need to win out and one of those two to lose to get a bye.
According to ESPN right now it has us as the number 1 seed based on this. AFC South Champ Wins tie break over New England and Baltimore based on best win percentage in conference games. And based on the following rules it's correct. It could come down to our Division games which should be really good. Three or More Clubs (Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format). 1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs). 2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division. 3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games. 4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. 5. Strength of victory. 6. Strength of schedule. 7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed. 8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed. 9. Best net points in common games. 10. Best net points in all games. 11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?page=tiebreakers, but he was using the wrong set of tie-breakers (see my quote at the bottom). We do not control our own destiny, finishing at 13-3 along with NE and BAL will give us the #3 seed according to this: I believe that the Strength of Victory tiebreaker is the one that we lose out on in a 3-way tie, or in a heads up tie with NE. BOTTOM LINE: In order to get a first round bye, our best shot is to win out and hope that NE or BAL lose once. Remaining schedules: NE @ DEN NE vs MIA NE vs BUF BAL @ SD BAL vs CLE BAL @ CIN There are several other scenarios where we can get a bye if we finish 12-4 tied with NE or in a 3-way with NE/BAL, assuming that our 1 loss is to Carolina (NFC team). We would have the best conference record in that case. One additional scenario: If 1) HOU finishes 12-4 and loses to Tennessee and 2) NE finishes 12-4 and loses to Miami and 3) BAL does not finish at 12-4 (does not make it a 3-way tie), then HOU would beat NE on the combined record of Common Opponents (MIA/OAK/PIT/IND).
http://playoffstatus.com/nfl/texansstandings.html That sums it up pretty nicely. We don't control our own destiny even if we win out.
The last week of the season will be interesting, provided the Texans can win their next two. I do think that 13-3 gets you a bye, at a minimum. Baltimore is at a streaking San Diego next week and New England is at Tebow, and Baltimore will have to play in Cincinnati in Week 17 against a Bengals team that may have the playoffs at stake. Those are three moderately tough road games; guessing at least one will result in an upset. However, the Titans will be fighting for their playoff lives as well (they have the Jags and Colts the next two weeks, so 9-6 seems likely), and you can count on them pulling out all the stops - including playing dirty - for the last week at Reliant. There's a definite risk vs. reward (with Andre) to consider there. If it were me, though, I'm going all out against the Titans - because they're the only team that scares me a bit if we're the No. 3 and have to play in round 1. I think the Jets are fool's gold - their recent "streak" is due to playing crappy opponents. The defense and running game isn't near what it's been the last two years, and I'm not afraid of Mark Sanchez one bit. The Bengals are OK, but I'm convinced after yesterday that we could handle them easily in a rematch, especially at Reliant. The Titans know us well, have Chris Johnson rounding into form, and Jake Locker has looked pretty damn good at times. I think we'd beat them and I know we routed them in October, but I'd prefer the Jets/Bengals, I think.
We can't play the Titans in the 1st round, can we? IIRC you can't have a wildcard game with two teams from the same division. Or am I thinking about MLB?
That's an MLB rule; not the NFL. It's happened plenty of times before in football, most recently when the Cowboys and Eagles played a Wild Card game in January 2010.
Thx for confirming... I don't want to play the Titans back to back. Didn't we play Buffalo back to back as well, killing them at home and then getting screwed by the refs up in Buffalo?
