I'm not entirely sure that Ivey is out of the 3rd spot. I would like to know if he's a ball watcher because of lack of effort or is it because he's unable to comprehend the opposing offensive plays? @D-rock @Nook
Yeah I see "some" KD in Holmgren's game. He shoots very well outside and can shot over people in the middle post up. Do I think he will be as good as KD offensively? No, I don't see that happening. However his ceiling on offense is high, but he comes with risks.
My response is we don't know for sure. First I would point out that the spacing on Purdue was horrible. Zac Edey is 7'4" and 300 lbs and slow. Trevion Williams is 6'10" and nearly 280 lbs. There was no room to operate on the floor with Purdue in a half set. Then they the point guard that Ivey played with was slow and not very talented and there were very few assists in the system that Purdue ran. So with all that in mind, I am not sure where people expect Ivey to go off ball. He also was used as their safety valve on kickouts.
Agree that KD had the better dribble and drive (although most of KD's buckets were one dribble and pull up). However Holmgren can shoot over people like KD did and he has shown the ability to hit mid range turnarounds like KD. I don't think Holmgren will be as good an offensive player as KD. I don't think anyone in this draft will be that good. KD is one of the 5-10 best offensive players in NBA history. Defensively, Holmgren is going to be very elite if he is healthy. He also isn't going to be elite in the way Paul George is, he isn't going to be someone that just guards his man well. Holmgren is going to make a difference across the board defensively. Guys like Draymond Green, Tim Duncan, Hakeem Olajuwon, David Robinson, Ben Wallace - players that you build a defensive system around and can cover flaws other players have. That is what separates Holmgren from others. Offensively, he may well not be a #1, but he will score and be efficient. He doesn't have to score 25 points a night to be a superstar because of the rest of his game. If he does score 25 points a night he will be an all time great. Also he doesn't realistically need to hit his ceiling. As it is, he shoots a high volume of 3's at a high percentage, he flashes to the basket as a cutter, he finishes at an elite level inside and he scores well in transition. With his high efficiency, that gives him at least 12-15 points a game from hustle baskets and open 3's. There is value in the mid range shot, but what you want is a guy that can hit 3's but also can hit mid range shots when he needs to.
I kind of hate having to pin comps on these kids like that for all of them. Just doesnt seem fair. Wish the scouting world shifts more towards archetypes but being "IN" early on the next big thing is alluring in a FOR LIKES platform so I get it. I see that in college. I still need to see it vs some pros. Super skeptical that we should just assume that will carry over but will be happy to be shown wrong especially if he ends up a Rocket. If Jalen Green goes down for any long stretch or even worse during a playoff run and Chet Holmgren is on this team I really hope he can carry the team until the #1 returns. He's custom made for the modern game thats for sure. Im overly enthusiastic about the midrange shot. Thinking Im clever and can outlast the math!
"Old" KD TODAY even off a torn achilles still runs circles around the guys that are being comp'd to him. His body movement is unreal for a guy that size.
I'd say that the biggest weakness Durant has on offense is that he can't control tempo, ala Lebron/Luka/Harden. It is a massively slept-on skill to be able to simultaneously manage clock, assist teammates, and score whenever you want.
If Magic pick Banchero #1 and OKC surprises everyone by taking Ivey #2 then Rockets need to move heaven and earth to add #4 to their #3. Holmgren AND Smith would be a miracle draft.
I was just about to say if Chet falls to us that would be good. I used to be down on Chet but when I study players I'm fair and my scouting eyes are not lying to me. If we can get Chet please... draft him. I'm fine with Banchero though... I don't want to drop 17 to 34. Has to be a way to get Chet and keep 17.
