There was a time when I thought Kinky actually had a chance of uniting the people against Perry. Counting on the non-evangelical Republicans who are dissatisfied with Perry supporting Kinky (who is a Republican in practically every aspect excepting Gay rights and the Death Penalty) along with the added support of Democrats and Independents who were voting "anyone but Perry." Now Republicans who hate Perry have the option of voting for Strayhorn (a hell of a serious campaigner with experience winning statewide office) meaning that Kinky gets no one but voters disenchanted by both parties and voters who think it would be fun to have him as governor. Unlike Kinky, Strayhorn is unlikely to get many Democrat votes. What Strayhorn adds to this race is a split of Republican voters leading to a run-off. My guess is a run-off between Perry (who is likely to get the majority of Republican votes) and the Democratic candidate. If the candidate is Bell (who I respect the hell out of for taking on DeLay in Congress) Perry likely wins. Bell is a horrible campaigner. Remember when he ran for mayor? If the candidate is Gammage, I think Perry may lose. As stated previously, he is tough as nails and hails from a time when being a Texas Democrat meant something.
Kinky has the best ideas. His ideas on education, and appointments of officials looking into education are dynamite. They would probably be the best in the nation if he was allowed to implement them. Kinky's ideas for safety for children, and making school busses use bio-friendly fuel, like Willie Nelson's school bus also makes sense. His ideas are great, whether his campaign is serious or not. And even if it isn't, I don't see what is wrong with that, or why that should keep people from voting for him. With his ideas, and the relative lack of power that the governor has in Texas, I don't see anything wrong with running a not-so-serious campaign.
Almost 60% of this board favors Kinky Friedman, while the latest Rasmussen Poll has Kinky getting 12% of the vote. Yeah, this board isn't skewed to one side or anything... LOL http://rasmussenreports.com/2006/State Polls/January 2006/Texas Governor January 5.htm Perry with a very sizable lead in the above poll...
What? You didn't grace us with the meat of the poll, Trader_J! Texas Governor: Perry (R) at 40% Leads Four Person Field Survey of 500 Likely Voters January 5, 2005 Election 2006 Rick Perry (R) 40% Carole Keeton Strayhorn (I) 21% Chris Bell (D) 14% Kinky Friedman 12% RasmussenReports.com January 8, 2005--A couple of weeks ago, it seemed like Texas Governor Rick Perry might have weathered the intra-party storm. Perry led State Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn by large margins in Republican Primary polling and there were no Democrats likely to beat him one-on-one in the red state of Texas. Earlier, Perry had escaped another challenge when Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison decided to stay in Washington and run for re-election as a Senator. Perry's good fortune ended on January 2 when Strayhorn pulled out of the Republican Primary competition and announced she would run as an Independent. Now, in a 4-way race, the incumbent Governor earns just 40% of the statewide vote. Strayhorn attracts 21% of the vote (including 17% of Republicans). Democrat Chris Bell is in third place with 14% and another Independent, Kinky Friedman, attracts 12%. Collectively, the three opponents attract support from 47% of all Texas voters. Perry, with a 19-point lead, must still be considered the favorite in this race. But, he is far less comfortable than he was when Strayhorn was challenging him in the Primary. The unusual dynamic of a Republican official challenging a Republican Governor in a General Election could make for a wild political season in Texas. http://rasmussenreports.com/2006/State Polls/January 2006/Texas Governor January 5.htm Keep D&D Civil.
Deckard, do you believe anyone not named Perry will be elected Governor in Texas? I eagerly await your response.
Jorge- Those numbers don't look too good for Perry. If it's a runoff between Strayhorn and Perry, Strayhorn wins hands down. More importantly, the poll doesn't have Bob Gammage in it. When voters get to know him, I think he'll make the run off. Against Strayhorn, he probably loses. Against Perry, he probably wins. You really never know with Kinky (who I think will not make a runoff). I think if Bell gets the nomination he either doesn't make the runoff or loses in the general election. My fear is Strayhorn making the runoff instead of Perry. While I think it will be a great diss to the S.S. Perry, I also think she wins a general election against whoever she is up against. "One Tough Grandma" is the most successful campaign slogan in Texas history. If it gets on your nerves already, sorry. Get used to it.
Rick Perry (R) 40% Carole Keeton Strayhorn (I) 21% Chris Bell (D) 14% Kinky Friedman 12% RasmussenReports.com 13% Undecided? 47% Not Perry in the general election and likely not switching sides in the runoff. Perry should be very concerned.
This is huge news today in Austin: Teacher group endorses Strayhorn over two Democrats TSTA favors Republican for statewide office for first time. By W. Gardner Selby AMERICAN-STATESMAN STAFF Wednesday, January 11, 2006 In a turn-the-world-upside-down moment, the state's oldest teacher group endorsed a Republican gubernatorial challenger who in the past had advocated spending government money to send students to private schools, an idea long opposed by school employee groups. Welcoming the support from the 65,000-member Texas State Teachers Association, Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn, who is running for governor as an independent, renounced her past support for school vouchers while re-airing her desire to see Texas have the highest teacher pay in the nation. Where would she get money for more spending? Strayhorn didn't say but referred to her seven years as state comptroller. "I have found money many places. I've found it over and over again." The association is a National Education Association affiliate. It has never endorsed a Republican for statewide office. Four years ago, the group gave almost 90 percent of more than $350,000 in candidate donations to Democrats, including $30,000 to Democratic gubernatorial nominee Tony Sanchez and $5,000 to Strayhorn's opponent in the comptroller's race, said the Institute on Money in State Politics. The group's president, Donna New Haschke, a graduate of Austin's McCallum High School, said the timing proved right for Strayhorn, a former McCallum teacher. "It comes down to electability," Haschke said. "We know that Comptroller Strayhorn has the best opportunity to prevail in the election next November. . . . And on top of that, she is right on our issues. On every single one of them, we couldn't find a stronger advocate." Republican Gov. Rick Perry, who is running for re-election, has reported more than 140 endorsements from groups including the historically pro-Democrat Combined Law Enforcement Associations of Texas. Strayhorn had not previously publicly celebrated one. Perry kicked off his re-election effort Tuesday by traveling Texas, touting his conservative credentials and saying: "Our work is not done, not by a long shot." He did not mention any possible opponents by name. But he said their criticism of himwon't work with voters. "This race is not about, and it's not going to go to, the chronic complainer or the shrillest critic," said Perry, who stopped in Lubbock, Dallas, Tyler and Beaumont. "This race is going to go to the strongest leader." In Austin, Strayhorn said she was "honored and humbled" by the group's support. She said of her past support for a pilot program offering vouchers to disadvantaged students: "Vouchers are off the table. We've got to fix public education." Strayhorn said: "When I've talked about vouchers, philosophically I wouldn't have a problem with that for disadvantaged kids. But let me tell you what, that was before we had five years of this administration that is absolutely totally dismantling our public school system day by day." Haschke said the group intends to continue to urge members to vote in the March 7 primaries, leaving Strayhorn to raise more than 45,000 voter signatures to qualify for the November ballot on her own. Independents can raise signatures only from voters who sit out the primaries. The group's decision to back Strayhorn could hurt Democratic candidates Chris Bell of Houston and Bob Gammage of Llano, who have already seen a few deep-pocketed trial lawyers, traditional Democratic donors, write checks to Strayhorn. Gammage spokesman Jeremy Warren expressed disappointment but said Gammage expects to work with the group once he's governor. Bell spokesman Jason Stanford charged the teacher group with "putting political calculations over the children of Texas, plain and simple." http://www.statesman.com/news/content/news/stories/local/01/11governor.html I've heard that she's a bear to work for, and there is a host of reasons for me to dislike her, but she really does care about the children of Texas and the state of our educational system. When she talks about it, she's not just blowin' smoke. Keep D&D Civil.
In less relevant, yet still kinda funny news, Strahorn for governor? Strayhorn misspells name on candidacy form By W. Gardner Selby AMERICAN-STATESMAN STAFF Wednesday, January 11, 2006 Carole Keeton Strayhorn, the onetime schoolteacher hoping to oust Gov. Rick Perry in November, misspelled her last name, leaving out the Y, in her declaration of intent to run as an independent for governor. In two parts of the one-page form, filed last week, her last name is spelled Strahorn, the Texas Secretary of State's office said today. "Our office cannot recall a situation when a candidate misspelled their name on the top portion of the form and the affidavit itself, so we are currently looking into the situation," said Scott Haywood, spokesman for the agency, which oversees state elections. Haywood said Strayhorn's campaign would be told of the error, which was brought to his attention by a reporter this morning. Strayhorn's campaign manager, Brad McClellan, chuckled — even before being asked if Strayhorn might earmark campaign dollars to buy back a vowel. McClellan said Strayhorn "is a candidate for governor. We're going to get to the bottom of this 'y' mystery." The signature on the form appears to be Strayhorn's, but it's unclear who filled out the 15 other spaces on the form, which is notarized by Austin lawyer Roy Minton. The error comes as Austin state Rep. Terry Keel has sidelined two of his opponents for the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals by challenging shortcomings in their filing documents. Austin lawyer Buck Wood, who represents one of Keel's opponents in that ballot dispute, said he can't envision a judge preventing Strayhorn from gathering signatures to run in November because of the missing letter. "The courts have never punished anybody for those kinds of errors," Wood said. He said only a gubernatorial candidate would have standing to challenge the paperwork. Perry's other challengers include Democrats Chris Bell of Houston and Bob Gammage of Llano and independent aspirant Kinky Friedman of Kerrville. Find this article at: http://www.statesman.com/news/content/news/stories/local/01/11strayhorn.htm
2 things Kinky has going against him. 1. People who would want to vote for him because they don't think he has a chance, or it will all turn into a joke. If everyone who says that want to vote for Kinky but... would just do it, he would definitely stand a chance. 2. Getting his message out. If he could find a way to get more people his message, and compete with the slick ad campaigns in his own way, he would gain a lot of supporters. It is possible for him to win, people just have to believe it to be possible and not be afraid to really support and vote for him.
I agree with you, but keep in mind that, two months before the election, Jesse Ventura was 20 points behind the frontrunner in the Minnesota Governors election he eventually won. The turnaround came during the debates. If Kinky gets to debate with Hairboy, Rylandstrayhorner, and everyone else, they'd better watchout. Kinky, noted author and satirist, would be able to make fools of them all on live TV quite easily.
Man I'd love to see a debate with all four candidates. I wonder how high your poll numbers need to be to make it into a debate. Unlike in Minnesota, Kinky is one of two independent candidates. I think everyone should be in a debate, but if you allow Perry, the Dem, Strayhorn and Kinky, then why not also the Libertarian and why not also the Natural Law Party or the LaRouchite or whoever else ends up finding a way onto the ballot?
Yeah that would be great. People could compare, and the debate audience might be the best and cheapest chance for Kinky to get a message out to a wider variety of people. If I lived in TX where I could see the debates and I had DVR I have the feeling I would watch those over and over again.
