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[Who actually IS STILL here] Terrence Jones

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by steddinotayto, Sep 26, 2014.

  1. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    I'd like to preface by saying that I know Jones isn't an All-Star nor is he elite...in fact me comparing his stats to the likes of Blake Griffin, Kevin Love, LaMarcus Aldridge, etc could be considered as an insult to those All-Stars and they should be offended. Heck, Jones was thisclose from getting replaced by Chris Bosh this summer.

    {NOTE: House of Houston did a piece on Jones a couple of days back (link HERE) and while I DID NOT read the article before starting this thread, I agree on most of what the writer wrote regarding Jones' performance.]

    Be that as it may, I think we need to look at Terrence Jones and see what we actually have here:

    PER:

    Jones' first year as a full-time starter produced some eyebrow-raising numbers. His PER last year 19.1. While this isn't an all-world number it does put Jones' 2nd season 6th since 2003-2004 among 2nd year players who started 66 games or more (link HERE), between Durant's and Aldridge's 2nd year. Among players in his draft class, Jones is 2nd only to The Brow. That's pretty good company for a player that is the 3rd option at best on most nights.

    Shooting:

    While we saw many bricks from Jones' 2nd year (especially in the playoffs), it's encouraging to see that he posted a 54.2% FG% with a TS% of 57.7%. That TS% is 6th among 2nd Year full-time starters since 2003-2004 (link HERE). Coincidentally, #25 in Dallas posted the 2nd highest mark within the same parameters. I honestly think that if Jones becomes an average FT shooter (his FT% was 60.5% bad), this number could rise significantly.

    "But we need a stretch 4!"

    Last year, Jones' FG% from 3point land was 30.7%, not a good number considering he shot little over 1 3 per game. Be that as it may, consider the numbers below for players in their 2nd year:

    Kevin Love 33% (1.8 attempts per game)
    Channing Frye 16.7% (.3 attempts per game)
    Shawn Marion 25.6% (1 attempt per game)

    We consider these two PF in the top tier of power forwards who shoot the 3. We should also remember that wasn't always the case as Love had spent an entire offseason getting that 3 point shot down while Frye didn't start launching 3s until his 5th year in the league. Do I think Jones can be an elite 3 point shooter? I would say no because there's something about his shot that just doesn't sit right IMO but, hey, Marion has one of the worst looking shots in NBA history and he's managed to shoot over 38% twice in his career.

    "But what about his mid-range game??"

    Last year, Jones shot 39.1% between 10ft and 16 ft and 27.3% between 16ft and the 3 point line. While those numbers look cringe worthy, lets take a look at some of the numbers for power forwards that we consider to be pretty good at the mid-range in their 2nd year:

    Aldridge 44.3% 40.3%
    Haslem 42.4% 46.5%
    David West 40.6% 42.5%
    Millsap 35.1% 39.5%

    YEESH. So it pretty much looks like there's no argument here--Jones sucks at the mid-range.

    "We already knew that though :rolleyes:"

    Well there's a silver lining to Jones' shooting though.

    Aldridge 69.3%
    Haslem 66.2%
    David West 51.4%
    Millsap 50.8%

    That's the FG% for those players in their 2nd year at 0 to 3ft. Jones finished last year with 72.4%.... yes 72.4%. The most encouraging thing about this number is that Jones took half of his shots (50.8% to be exact) from this area last year.

    Rebounding:

    Jones grabbed 6.9 rebounds a game last year, which actually is average for power forward starters in their 2nd years. The silver lining is that we have Dwight Howard grabbing 12.2 rebounds a game last year so that could very well play into the low number for Jones who actually had games with 16 and 17 rebounds last year.

    Defense

    Jones' 2nd year saw a Defense RAPM of -1.47, a bad number to have at any position. In contrast, DMo's limited minutes had his Defense RAPM at 1.28. Aldridge posted a .7 Def RAPM while Love posted a .1 Def RAPM in their respective 2nd years. This is a bad number all-around and, while it doesn't tell you the full picture of how bad Jones is on defense, it should give you a realistic view of what he can (or cannot) do. To put it into perspective, Carlos Boozer posted a -.73, David Lee posted a .09, and Al Jefferson a .02 last year.

    As we've seen in the playoffs, Jones guarding a stretch 4 like Aldridge or a bruising center like Robin Lopez is out of the question. Jones lost a lot of height to Aldridge's length and Jones wasn't strong enough to bang with Lopez.


    So....now what?

    I, personally, think Jones can be a very good power forward if he does two things: Improve his 3 point shot and vastly improve his defense. The 3 point shot is something we all wish Jones can be great at as our need for a stretch 4 is clearly evident and I think he can be "that" guy. Not a Kevin Love or a Chris Bosh by any means but a guy that can keep defenses honest.

    Jones actually shot 41.7% from the left corner 3 on 17 attempts. A very small sample size but the great thing about this is that his SF running mate, Trevor Ariza, posted 45.6% from the OTHER corner 3 last year. That's encouraging as it helps balance out the court for Harden and Howard. If Jones can practice and hit a respectable mark from that corner 3 in a larger sample size, I think Jones can help stretch the defense moreso which can only help the Rockets' offense.

    The other area I hope Jones improve upon is his FT shooting. 60% is not going to cut it especially with Dwight on the team. I have high hopes that Jones, if he can't improve on his 3 point shooting, can at least improve on his FT%. Even low 70s would be a great start.

    As far as defense? Yeesh...I really don't know what to say. You can't teach height so Jones will be not controlling that. Strengthening and getting strong might be one of the few additions Jones can make at this point. The other factor that comes into play is that by replacing Parsons (who was an averaging defender last year according to his Def RAPM of .15) with a better defender in Ariza (Def RAPM .92) could help somewhat although this is more wishful thinking on my part as I don't think Harden learned any defense through osmosis playing alongside Beverly.

    While Jones have glaring holes in his game after his first full season as a starter, I don't see why he can't improve upon what he's built upon this past season. Unless we get an upgrade at the 4 for next year (whether it be before the season or at the deadline) I can see Jones filling in admirably and could become a pretty good offensive player next year if he improves at the FT line and at the 3 point shot.
     
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  2. Dhoward12

    Dhoward12 Member

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    I dont think Jones will ever truly improve his 3pt shot using the same reason Dwight never improves his FT shooting, Their mechanics are horrible.

    Jones needs to first retool his mechanincs as his wind up shot will never become consistent enough like the examples you mentioned.
     
  3. Karolik

    Karolik Member

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    fair and balanced analysis
     
  4. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    defense is the main thing I'm looking for. theres no reason for TJ to lose his strength and ability to finish around the rim by camping out at the 3 pt line. but sure it wouldn't hurt to improve it
     
  5. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    I agree his mechanics is suspect but I have high hopes that his release from the corner will improve. If anything at least I hope his accuracy is better as there's been plenty of players with bad form/mechanics that hits that corner 3 at a respectable rate. I hope that can at least help open up the lane for him to attack the basket as he's pretty good at finishing.
     
  6. bmd

    bmd Member

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    Shawn Marion disagrees lol.
     
  7. Haymitch

    Haymitch Custom Title
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    My issue with Jones' shot is his long, slow release. Marion at least has a quick one with minimal movement.
     
  8. RocketsJumer

    RocketsJumer Member

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    Yeah, Jones' stroke is going to prevent him from ever being a good or even okay option from three point range. It's just too slow. Defenders will have to be a good 5-10 feet away from him for him to get off a shot. And even then, it's not like his stroke is very accurate. If he can pull of 35% on 2 attempts per game, we will be lucky.

    Defensively, a lot of it was him being out of position. Of course having Parsons and Harden also out of position didn't help matters because Jones was often the defender that needed to pick up Harden or Parsons' man. Hopefully with a more defensive concious player like Ariza and a more focused Harden, defense for Jones will improve.

    I'm expecting a lot from Jones this year. I think he can be our 3rd option, most nights. His ball handling is scary good for a player his size and if he can get those easy buckets off of Harden's penetration and effort players, he could be a beast. I predict 14ppg, 8rpg, 1.5bpg on 47/33/68 shooting.
     
  9. T_Man

    T_Man Contributing Member

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    Shawn Marion has one ugly shot...

    Talking about teach your kid the wrong way to shoot a ball...

    T_Man
     
  10. MrButtocks

    MrButtocks Contributing Member

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    Unless he makes drastic changes to his game, I just don't see Jones as a solid role player next to Harden and Howard. His defense and shooting ability are subpar. He might be a decent overall player, but those two weaknesses alone make him a terrible fit. Hell, a weakness in even one of those categories is bad enough. For instance, I'm a huge Kenneth Faried fan and even I have to admit that he would be a bad fit next to Dwight.
     
  11. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    If we could combine DMo and Jones into one player, we'd have the 3rd star.
     
  12. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    drastic changes for what? hes a traditional pf and plays efficiently. one who can play around the rim and finish..something to you don't see too much of these days as it seems you need to be able to shoot. and if not it means you aren't that good. he'll be better in his 3rd season and people need to remember this will only be his 2nd season as a starter. calm down
     
  13. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    Defensively he'll have to change drastically. People get excited when they see him do flashy things like dunk the ball and occasionally come up with a block, but he's one of the worst defenders on the team and his shot needs to improve a lot.
     
  14. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    Exactly. This reminds me of the situation with Landry and Scola where one guy had things that the other guy didn't and vice versa.

    The only answer right now is to platoon the PF position much like what they did with Landry and Scola.

    I tried to see if Jones' Def RAPM was on par with some of his PF counterparts but couldn't find anyone other than Kenneth Faried and in some metrics Faried's defense was worse than Jones'.

    I wonder if Jones can also develop a post game since he's apparently really good at finishing around the rim.
     
  15. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    I certainly hope so, he's very young and has all the athleticism in the world so if he puts in the work I think he can be a remarkable player. I still prefer DMo when it comes to going against the larger PF's in the league and I think I always will, but I think we could have a good platoon of PF's who could be plus every night depending on the matchup.
     
  16. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    he has a post game already and has shown it
     
  17. Zoplicone

    Zoplicone Member

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    His basketball iq appears low when I watch him. Makes too many mistakes. No consistency. Gets too excited at times
     
  18. MrButtocks

    MrButtocks Contributing Member

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    I never said Jones was bad, he's actually quite good for a second year player. He's just not a great fit even taking his strengths (finishing, ballhandling) into account. I love Asik, but the twin tower lineup with he and Dwight starting together was never going to work. I'm a Faried fan and he wouldn't mesh with Dwight for the same reasons.

    Dwight is at his best with the same type of forwards that worked well with Shaq: shooters that defend, shooting being primary. Even Gasol had issues with Dwight (both are post players) and he's an all-world talent. Am I supposed to believe Jones is a great fit when he's clearly not?
     
  19. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    imo he's not actually as bad as you make it seem as they've had plenty of success winning games with DH and TJ together. this 3rd year will be a big year for him and we will easily notice improvements or regressions. im not the biggest TJ fan but I won't knock a very young player that's shown steady improvement thus far. something you can't say about half the players entering the league.
     
  20. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    Just looking at his college stats:


    Year GS MPG FG% 3P% FT% RPG APG SPG BPG PPG
    2010–11 35 31.5 .442 .329 .646 8.8 1.6 1.1 1.9 15.7
    2011–12 34 29.3 .500 .327 .627 7.2 1.3 1.3 1.8 12.3

    Tells me maybe he CAN be a respectable 3 point shooter but that free throw % will never get to where I had originally hoped it would be.
     

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