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Who’s your 1B choice?

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by whiskeyred, Nov 14, 2022.

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Who’s your 1B choice?

  1. Anthony Rizzo

    35 vote(s)
    21.0%
  2. Josh Bell

    16 vote(s)
    9.6%
  3. Yuli Gurriel

    35 vote(s)
    21.0%
  4. Jose Abreu

    73 vote(s)
    43.7%
  5. Other

    8 vote(s)
    4.8%
  1. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    It may not but I think Garcia has huge value among teams and GMs right now.

    He has 4 years of control and is established as a high end #3-4 SP who still has upside.

    Walker's value is low based on only having his highest 2 arbitration years ahead of him and being a 1B.

    Varsho can very easily be replaced by their current roster and they make have 3 OF they like better that are all pre-arb.

    Leon has all star 30-30 ceiling with a cannon for an arm with position versatility so there is enough there that they could like him.

    The pitching prospects all were here with Strom and are among our best so he may really like them.

    Based on rankings it may not be enough but the best Astros pitchers have not been high ranking prospects. Strom and Arizona could value this offer quite a bit.

    Or not
     
  2. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    1. Abreu
    2. Bell
    3. Yandy Diaz
    4. Christian Walker
    5. Garrett Cooper
    6. Rowdy Tellez
    7. Yuli Gurriel+internal options
     
    Mr Woods and Charlie986 like this.
  3. jayfree

    jayfree Member

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    You wanna be okay with Rhys Hoskins on our team and possible Chris Davis 2.0 down the line, have at it. I for one don't like to add any player that can't hit for average when needed and consider them LONG TERM!
     
  4. leroy

    leroy Contributing Member

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    I thought we had all moved on from average being the important stat.
     
  5. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    Average is an outdated stat

    But I do get your point.

    If you changed " hit for average" to " get in base" or " drive in runs" then I agree with you

    However there are many skills such as defense and base running that are needed for a winning team.

    I would not ignore signing Maldy to a multi year deal if the other 8 hitters were above average and he was a few years younger.
     
    jayfree likes this.
  6. jayfree

    jayfree Member

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    Exactly my point and thanks. When I say hit for average I mean get on base and move the runners or extend the inning when needed. The guy ks with 2 outs almost every time and have a horrible showing in pressure situations. I want a player that can slap the ball opposite way with 2 strikes or with 2 outs in the inning, not someone who'll try to hit a HR and in the playoffs get weeded out.
     
    Tomstro likes this.
  7. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    You forgot 50 feet of **** between 2 and 3 and 100 feet of **** between 6 and 7
     
  8. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    It’s not that black and white. The trade options have wOBA projections between .330-.345; Abreu/Bell project for .348/.343. Factoring in defense and cost makes it’s a potentially close call. I do agree that there is a very big drop off from all the exterior options I listed to Yuli/internal.
     
    Wulaw Horn likes this.
  9. right1

    right1 Member

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    So now there is a huge gap between Yuli and Yainer Diaz versus Rowdy Tellez .219/.306/.767?
    Forget Yuli having a bounce back closer to '21 and his '22 postseason, I wouldn't bet against Yainer putting up better #'s than Rowdy Tellez.
     
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  10. jiggyfly

    jiggyfly Member
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    Then those metrics don't tell the entire story because anybody that has seen him catch everything thrown to him can tell you he is a bottom of the league defensive 1st baseman.

    How does his pick rate factor in to these metrics?
     
  11. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    The projections like Tellez a lot. His projected .346 wOBA would rank him as the Astros 5th best hitter just behind Altuve’s .352. But yes, a true believer in Yainer Diaz would probably want him to be the 1B ahead of just about all available options outside of Abreu/Bell.
     
    right1 likes this.
  12. awc713

    awc713 Member

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    What would Yanier’s best case, medium case, and worst case comparisons be? I know there have been Carlos Santana comps on this board. Maybe that’s best case? Not a star but solid career.
     
  13. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    I like Appollo's Astro prospect reports.

    He compares him to Wilson Contreras

    Steamer likes him projecting: .261 .305/.451=.756 OPS with 22 xbh in 243 PA.

    Percentages only below Alvarez, Altuve, Tucker, and Bregman.
     
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  14. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    I don’t see much chance he ever walks as much as Santana. In a good outcome here would be the ranges for some key stats:
    K 15-20%
    BB 5-11%
    HR 20-30 per season

    Ty France’s 2021-2022 offensive numbers might be another upper level outcome comp. Eric Hosmer might be a decent more realistic comp.

    He has a very good chance to be an average hitter (wRC+ 90-110), with ceiling to be an excellent hitter (wRC+ 120-140) if he can adjust/develop. Of course that ignores the question of defensive value. If he can be a viable catcher (even if it’s just as a backup who DHs 100 games a year) then he should have very high value even if his bat doesn’t reach its ceiling. So the absolute ceiling (a solid everyday defensive catcher who posts a 130 wRC+ offensively) is enormous, but the likely outcome is far less (a DH with a league average bat). As for the worst case, if he has no defensive value and pitchers figure him out then he’s a AAAA bat.
     
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  15. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    Yandi Diaz. I’m a stupid, I thought you were talking about our Y Diaz.
     
  16. Buck Turgidson

    Buck Turgidson Mineshaft Enthusiast

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    "an" important and "the" important are 2 different things.

    I thought we had all moved on from that dumbass "moneyball" book/movie stuff 20 years ago?
     
  17. Yordan The Great

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    Maybe we should just ride with Hensley at 1B and sign Yuli as a backup plan and split the duties. I mean we can't get any worse production out of first base than we did in 2022.

    Do the same sign Diaz at catcher with Maldy. Again, not like we are risking lowering our hitting production at the catcher position.
     
    #237 Yordan The Great, Nov 26, 2022 at 7:23 AM
    Last edited: Nov 26, 2022 at 7:30 AM
  18. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    So basically you're max valuing all the Astros players and dismissing the DBacks's players' value.
     
  19. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    I certainly don't see it that way and do not think it's biased.

    My point is that each arbitration year is more expensive than the last. Years 2 and 3 ( and 4 in case of super 2) are the most expensive which somewhat reduces Walker's value, especially since 1B as a position is among the lowest trade value because easiest to find.

    The rest of my post is simply why Arizona would/could trade them and why they would want the Astros players offered.

    By the very nature of that, the Diamondback players appear less valuable and Astros players appear more valuable.
     
  20. SamCassell

    SamCassell Contributing Member

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    Yuli had a .647 OPS in his age-38 season. You can't go in to 2023 believing he's going to "bounce back to 2021" given his age and the fact that he was also terrible in 2020. He's not going to make up 130 points in OPS to Tellez - that's a huge difference, and it's mainly because Tellez hits for power and Yuli doesn't.

    That said, I agree that Diaz is a good prospect and I think he could produce similar value to Tellez next year. But it might be better for the org to get him more reps at catcher next year in AAA, if they think he's got a chance to stick there. Right now he's below average defensively at the position. But his bat is MLB ready.
     

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