Which will be worst? drafting a bust or passing on a franchise player?

Example? I like your thinking, Voice of Aus.


Forgive me, mate, but I too read "Anus" instead of Aus.

 

You sound like you was hanging with Reggie instead of Bubba...

In some drafts having the #1 overall pick isn't always a good thing unless you can trade down and get more picks. And most teams who have the #1 overall pick usually always pass up on a franchise player (if there are any in the draft) because many times you don't see that player coming. J.J. is a prime example, Richard Sherman, and many others.

Just go look at the #1 draft picks going back to Peyton Manning and you won't see two many franchise players taking with the #1 overall pick.

 

In today's NFL, Drafting a bust is recoverable b/c you have a chance to make the rest of the draft picks successful...passing on a franchise player only becomes an issue, if that is the person that continues to rub it in your face everytime he meets us.

If Manziel/Bridgewater turns out to be the next great QB and ends up getting drafted by the Jaguars, they will forever remind the Texans on why it was wrong to pass up on him. If the Rams, Browns or Raiders draft that franchise player, it may not affect us as much...

Really the issue is if the Jags end up getting the best player, bc then the mistake becomes a long time reminder...

 

In the modern NFL, the risk of swinging for a franchise player and ending up with a bust isn't what it used to be.

While there are positions where a franchise player can make an impact, it seems like the real task to to acquire quality undervalued players all over your roster, and use the window when they aren't getting paid very much to add the missing pieces via free agency, and be ready to replace players who get too expensive. This is the route of the Seahawks and 49ers most recently, and the Patriots over the past decade.

 

Most people are misunderstanding the point of this post. You need to clarify it as follows:

Which option would you choose, A or B? Let's rate players from 0 to 100 with Jamarcus Russell being a 0 and Peyton Manning being a 100 (JJ Watt for example would be 93-95, just because his position by definition cannot impact a team as much).

A: You choose a player worth 50, but among the top 5 consensus options no one else was better than that.

B: You choose a player worth 85, but the consensus #3 guy turns out to be a 97.

That, I believe, is the question he is posing. Me personally I would prefer option A. Like others have posted, people never forget option B. That lasts throughout the duration of your franchise's existence. No one forgets that the Blazers passed up on Michael Jordan for Sam Bowie, or Kevin Durant for Greg Oden. When the entire field is a bust? No one faults the Texans for example for picking Mario Williams, since VY and Bush were even more disappointing.

 

Worst: Not drafting a franchise player.

In your scenario, both are worst because we didn't get the guy.

 

It's taking a bust. In that scenario, you come away with nothing at all helping your team. Whenever teams are laughed at for not taking a franchise guy, it's almost always because they took a lemon instead.

Draft can't get here soon enough. Going to be a looooooooong spring.

 

That would be a bust.......so option A.

 

Ah yes, a hypothetical thread where we can pretend we know the future to answer a question.

Cool.

 

Yes I will take the NFL ready guy over the wildcard with the first overall pick, any day. You only take risk on things you don't mind losing.

 

Drafting a bust is the only option that actually hurts your team, passing up someone that ends up great usually doesn't matter. The only thing worse than drafting a bust, is drafting a bust QB.

 

Like drafting Von Miller, Aldon Smith or Patrick Peterson instead of Watt.

Denver, 49ers and Cardinals got a franchise player, but passed on a better franchise player.

or it could different positions, like drafting Cam Newton instead of Watt.
Panthers got a franchise QB, and texans got a franchise defensive player.

those could be great examples of what Voice of Aus, was trying to say.

So that could be another option for the poll

I think drafting a bust is worse.

if the colts would have drafted Ryan Leaf, instead of Peyton, that would definitely suck.

but drafting Von Miller, Patrick Peterson or Aldon Smith over Watt, is not that bad.

Another example

Drafting Jamarcus Russell over Calvin Johnson definitely sucks, but drafting Calvin Johnson over Adrian Peterson is not bad, or drafting AP over Megatron isnt bad either.

 

If you draft a total bust at QB, there's a pretty good chance you'll get a redo by sucking enough to get a top-5 pick again. I'd rather repeatedly do that until you get the franchise player than get an Andy Dalton and trap the franchise in mediocrity.

The answer may be different for a non-QB.

 

There's even a better chance that if you are with the organization and you draft a bust QB at the first overall pick, you won't be with the team very long.

 

I'm not terribly concerned about that. You build a successful franchise (or anything) by focusing on avoiding failure. You do it by chasing greatness.

 

(fixed)

 

Exactly, and until OBrien that sounded so Texans. However, OBrien and a brand new coaching staff are the wild card. If they are competent, they will avoid both.