Which team has the most FEARSOME lineup in baseball?

lilstevie:

explain why his OPS is so low then.

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lilstevie: he has 32 steals, but he's also been caught 7 times. That's not bad.

But people make too much of the entire "lead-off" thing, etc. You're only guaranteed to have your starting line-up once per game. Hitters at the top of the line-up do get more AB's. But generally, line-ups only make a difference a couple of games a year.

There are lead-off hitters who are exceptions to this rule. Ricky Henderson comes to mind immediately - when he had a single, it was almost the same as a double, since he was such an incredible base stealer. But Ichiro's not nearly that automatic, and the advantage of having an extra base 75% of the time isn't that fantastic... when the alternative is an out.

Incidentally, I'm not certain how much his OBS is likely to improve. He's played the game for years now and is 27, right? Surely, there's probably an adjustment period, but I can't imagine a dramatic correction. And I can't imagine he'll gain that much power unless he underwent extensive weight training... in which case he might lose bat speed (but maybe not).

And 49thth in the AL isn't bad... but it's not as terrific as people seem to believe.


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[This message has been edited by haven (edited July 23, 2001).]

 

Haven is just full of absurdity today.

Tony Gwynn is a lifetime 330 somethin hitter. You're going tell me he's not a great hitter? Preposterous...

What haven and Neyer never seem to realize about OPS is that it favors home run hitters. Sluggers who hit for a mediocre average are walked a heck of a lot more than lead off type guys or slash/speed guys. Nobody walks Ichiro because they're afraid of his power. On the other hand, Manny Ramirez gets walked all the time because of his power. Phil Garner walked him 4 times in a row I think earlier this year. This is the way OPS blows things out of proportion. A player like Mark McGwire doesn't have a tremendous OPS simply because of his ability, a lot of it has to do with the style of hitter he is. OPS is a terribly redundant statistic and it's much more a measure of production than ability or prowess as a hitter. OPS also doesn't measure how strikeouts hurt a team as opposed to putting the ball in play helps a team.


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Explain why he has a low OPS? You have done it about 3 times in this thread, it is because he doesn't walk much and is not a power hitter.

Stats are great I love stats, but there is more to baseball than stats. Rod Carew had a lifetime OPS of under 840, guess he was an overrated piece of crap hitter too. Honus Wagner, .857 OPS, yep he is horrible too, can we get these guys out of the hall of fame? We need to make room for the likes of Todd helton, Jim Thome, Albert Belle, and a few other high OPS guys…..

There is no ABSOLUTE stat for determining how great a hitter is, every stat has some degree of error built into it. OPS is most accurate to judge middle of the order batters, but who would you rather have leadoff a game, Ichiro or Jim Thome? Jeter is at .801 OPS, guess he isn’t worth his salt at the plate either?

As for the whole batting order doesn’t matter absurdness….whose BS are you reading to come up with that conclusion?

While it is true that “you're only guaranteed to have your starting line-up once per game” that doesn’t take away from the fact that EVERY time the order is turned over, the leadoff hitters job is to get on base so the middle of the order guys can knock them in. Whether the lead off man comes up to lead off the inning or comes up with 2 out, his job remains the same, to set the table up for the run producers….


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Timing: Yes, it's more a matter of production. But production is the bottom line. Who cares how much esoteric skill a player has if he's not producing as much? What matters is how much a player contributes. Formulas like OPS measure that. Homers are more valuable than singles. That's why players who hit homers get more walks. Walks are every bit as valuable as singles.

Honus Wagner was a SS playing in the dead ball era. You can't compare that. You have to compare people to their contemporaries. That's simply elementary.

I'd rather have a guy who hits .330 with 30 dingers leading off. Sorry, lineup doesn't matter much. A good hitter in one spot is a good hitter in another.

You haven't demonstrated anything. You're just spouting conventional wisdom non-sense and then comparind dead ball players OPS to contemporaries during the age of homers.

Not a valid argument at all.

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[This message has been edited by haven (edited July 23, 2001).]

 

Speaking of overrated . . .

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Production = runs and rbi, not hits. If Ichiro is scoring a lot of runs then Ichiro is pretty damn good in my book. If he isn't, then, what good are all those hits. Standing on first doesn't mean a whole lot when everything is said and done. Batting average is very overrated. That's why Bagwell is one of the best player in the majors right now, despite his .270 average. He drives in runs and that's what counts.

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lilstevie:

I wasn't comparing ichiro to henderson. I basically said base stealing isn't a huge contributing factor unless it's the player has henderson-like abilities.

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What era does Derek Jeter and his 801 OPS play in?

Who would you rather have at the top of the order, Derek Jeter or Charles Johnson and his 140+ K's?

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PSJ, only problem with runs and rbis is that they are not an independent stat, they depend on another player either hitting you in, or being on base in front of you.

btw Ichiro leads the majors in Runs Scored.

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Whether the lead off man comes up to lead off the inning or comes up with 2 out, his job remains the same, to set the table up for the run producers….

If the primary job of the leadoff hitter is to get on base for the run producers, then there are 65 players in MLB better than Ichiro at doing that.

I think Haven's point is that he's a good *leadoff* man, but not necessarily one of the best hitters. For example, there are plenty of hitters that get on base more *and* hit for more power. Teams put their best hitters in the 3-5 positions. The fast but weak guys are put up top, and the powerful-but-low-average guys are put on bottom.

That helps to maximize run production, but the best overall hitters are still the ones put in the 3-5 spots. That would say that Ichiro is great for a leadoff hitter, but not a great overall hitter. To further that, on his own team, there are two players (Olerud and Martinez) who both get on base more and hit for more power than Ichiro. By just about any definition, they are better hitters -- so they get the 3 & 4 spots because of that.

This, of course, ignores his speed, which is clearly more valuable at the top of the lineup. However, that's more of him as a "player" than a "hitter".


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Haven, you're my bud and your posts are always well spoken. But, you are way off on Ichiro. Not only is he a 4-tool player, he is arguably the best at all four tools. That' didn't make sense, but you know what I am trying to say.

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