As I said before, players tend to perform better the more minutes they get. This is also true for Chuck Hayes. I included a 5th-order polynomial trend line for the data. Data points constitute every game he played for the Rockets the past season. Having a score greater than 15 corresponds to a very productive game. Note that in his top three game for minutes played, he exceeded that mark.
I hear what you are saying. You make a strong case for your position ...with stats. Problem is, stats don't impress me. More often than not, stats are 100% meaningless once players get on the court. I love the energy Hayes brings and I wouldn't mind him getting more minutes. But I just don't see him as a starter. Not only does JVG not see Hayes as a starter but I've never heard a single person suggest it except a few random BBSrs. Maybe you are onto something that nobody in the business has picked up yet ...but I doubt it. We need guys that are a threat to score or they just sag off and double team Yao. Hayes only gets his points off put backs and such. How can Hayes guard Dirk? Garnett? Duncan? Shawn Marion? Brand? etc. He can't. Our ideal starting PF isn't on our roster. Even if I grant you that Hayes is statistically better than Stro or Howard, its insignificant ...probably <5 game difference at BEST. As is the differences between starting Stro vs. Howard. They just don't have that much of an impact on the game. Stro SHOULD but he doesn't. If we had somebody that can reliably knock down 15 footers, stay in front of Dirk and can rebound, that would be huge. The Rockets future lies with Yao and TMac. If they excel, so too will the team. If they don't excel, its not like Hayes will carry us. I'd recommend to you that you stop debating with me because I don't have the time or fortitude to put together the type of impresive stats that you put forth. I watch games ...not get burried in stats. If that's not good enough for you ...then ignore me.
You don't have to collect an array of impressive stats to make your argument. Like you say, you watch games. That's fine. What have you observed in those games? Perhaps you have observed things on the court which I haven't noticed, or I haven't given enough consideration too. This is what I've noticed (and what the record supports). Chuck Hayes is a terrific defensive player, particularly for a rookie. You keep saying that there's no way he can defend some of the elite PFs in the game. But that's not the case. He's shown that his man defense is far superior to Juwan or Stromile during the regular season, despite his lack of height. Why? Because he has quick hands. He moves his feet. He has great timing. Now, if he going to shut down those players you mentioned? Of course not. No one can -- that's why they're allstars and they make tens of millions of dollars. But he's still a terrific defesive player. Unusually so, for a first year player. He's also a fantastic rebounder, and all-around hustle player. He gets numerous deflections. He doesn't turn the ball over a lot, and he has very good hands catching the ball in traffic. Couple that with his offensive rebounding, and he manages to not be an "offensive liability", even though he doesn't have a game outside of 10 feet from the basket. A 5 game difference (if that's all it is) is not insignificant. If Hayes gives us even one more win versus the other two, obviously he should be getting the most minutes. Right? And the notion that Yao can't score well with Hayes on the court is simply unfounded. Otis Thorpe was a poor mid-range shooter, and his presence didn't hurt Hakeem much, if I remember. Further, if you actually check the recorded evidence from last season, it also doesn't support what you say. Yao played 105 minutes with Chuck Hayes on the court last season. Per 40 minutes, he scored 32 points on 54.7% shooting, got 2.7 assists, and only turned it over 1.5 times. Overall, per 40 minutes, Yao averaged 26.1 points on 51.9% shooting, got 1.7 assists, and turned it over 3 times. Conclusion: Yao's offensive numbers were actually significantly better with Chuck Hayes on the court. Here's what Bob Chaikin (a former NBA consultant who's B-Ball basketball simulator has been used by NBA teams) had to say about Chuck Hayes on the APBRMetrics board: His simulation results agree with the +/- data available at 82games.com. When Hayes is on the court, the Rockets generally played well. When Howard was on the court, we generally played poorly. I'm not saying Hayes will definitely be our starting PF for years to come. All I said was, between him, Howard, and Swift, he's demonstrated to me that he's the most effective. Would the Rockets be even better served by an athletic, lengthy PF who can his perimeter jumpers and defend and rebound? Of course. But my point for this thread was only to compare the merits of the current PFs we've got. Also, I hope you realize the important of statistical analysis in the NBA. Statistics are taken very seriously, simply for the reason that it's impossible to fully understand what a player is capable of simply through watching games. The eye/brain isn't capable of registering each event that occurs on the basketball court and precisely combining them to make accurate assessments. To take a very simple example, there's no way you can distinguish, just from watching games, a team that grabs 52% of the rebounds from a team that grabs 48% of the rebounds. But it's actually a huge difference, and over the course of a season it makes a big difference in the final win/loss totals. Similarly, there's no way you can fully assess what a player brings to a team simply by observation, particularly when the sample is a full season worth of games. There's a reason stats are recorded and every coaching staff collects their own specialized stats.
This is something I think is interesting to note. In the middle of the 2005-2005 season Hubie Brown stated that all the criticism on Yao was ridiculous and that THEN if he just had a little more stamina and got a little more respect from the refs or just even figured more how they were going to make calls that THEn Yao would have already been easily a 24/11 player if he could just stay on the floor for 35 minutes. He also stated that the people insisting Yao could not play 35 minutes were very ill informed because they failed to realize that Yao was a 7-6 over 300 pound giant who was also groomed in the Chinese system and therefore did not have the proper strength and conditioning training. Because of those two factors and because the game in China is so slow according to Hubie (making Yao's adjustment even more of a shock) it would take him longer to build stamina and adjust to fouling calls and rotating on defense. Hubie also stated that people that instedt Yao had peaked at an 18/8 player again were dead wrong because they failed to realize that the competition level Yao faced in China was lower than high school draftees faced at the top high school conferences in the USA, while Hubie pointed out that people often saying Yao had peaked at an 18/8 player noted that he played "pro ball" for years already in China and was simply not going to get any better. As Hubie noted that was ridiculous condiered it's an even bigger transition from China's basketball league to the NBA than it is from the top high school leagues to the NBA in the US. Finally Brown noted that Yao being a 24/11 player already THEN if he could just get 35 minutes was not saying that was his peak, as Hubie noted Yao would probably eventually be able to play more minutes than that and he also noted that because Yao was just a 3rd year player, a 7-6 who would take longer to develop and adjsuting from Chin and to the speed of the NBA, that Yao would become a far better player eventually than he was then at the time, meaning he would end up being much better than a 24/11 type of player eventually. Well of course when Hubie (the man widely considered one of the two most knowledeable along with Larry Brown on the NBA game) stated this all the typical "experts" and "fans" ignored it and laughed it off as idiocy. It was only people that actually watch the game and could see Yao's incredible skills and work ethic that KNEW Hubie was right, and people on this board know that even amongst the die hard Rockets fan base only about 1 out of 3 fans even believed this. Regardless it didn't matter because people that could judge players properly knew it. And things on this forum went from "Trade Yao for KG" to "I would laugh if the Wolves offered KG for Yao" in a real hurry. So it should be said that Hubie knows what's he's talking about and he knows how to judge players. Well last year while broadcasting a Rockets game Hubie actually said that he felt Swift could be a very good player is he was "used properly." He went on to say that when he coached in Memphis that first year Swift was the 2nd best player behind Gasol, that he was a major factor in the making the playoffs, and that he worked tremendously hard and showed great talent in practice and that generally he would become a very good player if "used properly" It was interesting that he also said Swift was only "used properly" that one year. So perhaps one of the problems with Swift is that coaches like JVG are trigger happy. Swift makes one of his boneheaded plays and gets benched. It then kills his confidence. I know it's pathetic for a man making that money and with that talent to have that issue, but then again if that is the case, then JVG needs to let Swift just play it through. Because Hubie had nothing but praise for Swift but he said he let the guy just play through mistakes and he got confidence. So I think at the very least especially considering how bad Juwan is and that Hayes is just a backup anway that Houston just needs to give Stro 35 minutes and let him play through whatever boneheaded mistakes he makes. And just see once and for all what he can do for a consistent game in game out 35 minutes at PF with Yao/T-Mac/Rafer on the floor with him. If he can't improve or show signs with that then deal him, but I think it's being a bit stupid frankly to not even see or attempt to see if he MIGHT be able to pull it together with more consistent time and less worry about getting benched for errors. And really there can't possibly be any legit reason left to start Juwan.
I agree, everytime he's [Stro] on the court in his 5-10 min intervals, he's looking over his shoulder worried about making mistakes...you cannot develop a good rhythm this way and you can't develop a rhythm at all playing 5-10 min intervals each game. Stro has to be given the opportunity to play (he's never played over 21 mpg for a season ever) and be given the opportunity to make mistakes as well. Truer words have never been spoken!
Its easy to look at statistics but good stats don't necessarily translate into wins. I can't tell you how many wins we'll get by starting any one of our three current PF's. But I can tell you with a reasonable amount of confidence that it won't be a night/day difference, IMO. Maybe Dreams best attribute was his lateral quickness that allowed him to break down double teams. That might be Yao's biggest weakness. You need guys around Yao that create space. That is potentially interesting but I'm not compelled. 105 minutes would be statistically insignificant, mathmatically speaking, and therefore subject to any number of problems with the results such as the timing of Yao's injury, or what parts of a game Chuck happened to play with Yao or blah blah blah. More importantly, Yao might play better with Chuck than Juwan but that is not to say that Yao might not play better still with a yet-to-be-signed player. Actually, that's all I've been arguing is who is the starter. But I just realized that the title of the thread isn't necessarily asking who the starter is but who should get the most minutes. Normally there is a correlation between the two but its not set in stone. So you are aguring that Hayes is most effective. Hayes thrives on being a hustle player. If he were to get more minutes, his effectiveness isn't necessarily going to sustain itself. Some players are destined for a role in life and excel within their role but collapse when asked to do too much. IMO, Chuck Hayes is a GREAT backup/3rd string PF. But I don't feel he is a starter. AGAIN, my position is we need to find a new PF. I realize you like Chuck more than Stro or Howard. To me, that isn't saying much. And the opposite is often also true. Effective sports professionals find the proper balance between evaluating stats versus intuition. Stats can also be unbeleivably misleading. Great analysts understands how to interpret those stats. But I'd also argue that you need to look at WHEN a team gets those rebounds. If a team is an average rebounder all game long but manage to consistently pull down momentum changing rebounds when they count most, then that is immensly important but this won't show up in any stat books. Incedentially, this is Stromile's biggest weakness, IMO. His timing of doing bad things is impecable. I trust Juwan more because he doesn't make so many mental mistakes. He may miss an assignment cause he is slow but Stro misses assignments cause he's not paying attention. As a coach, the latter has to drive you crazy. You gotta looks at stats. But I doubt many coaches use stats as their final determinant when, say, drafting a player. Stats just aren't good enough ...they are only Step 1. Probably every NBA/Sports decision maker rely's on experience and intuition to make their final choices. If you had to pick between JJ Redick and say, Sheldon Williams (two likely prospects at #8). Statistically it points to Redick but is he too one dimensional. We definately need a PF. You can't use stats to make the decision and if you do, you'll probably get it wrong.
How do you say that "statistically" it points to Redick? What statistic? --- I don't know what else to say, krosfya. All the evidence available indicates Chuck Hayes was the most effective PF while on the court last season (in terms of the stats he got per possession, and also his impact on winning). Can we draw the conclusion that Chuck Hayes will be a great starting PF with 100% confidence? Of course not. And I never said that. Like you say, there are always variables and factors that aren't captured that might make a difference. I can only form my opinion based on what I see and the information available to me. That's how any analysis, in any field, is carried out. Models are constructed, limitations are recognized, and conclusions are drawn with a certain level of confidence. It seems to me that you believe Chuck Hayes will not be a productive NBA player that can play significant minutes because of certain characteristics of his profile: he's undersized for his position he wasn't a high profile player coming out of college his offensive game is very limited he relies on hustle plays versus "skill" to make his impact he wasn't given many minutes his first year, suggesting the coaching staff don't think he's anything special and therefore neither should we Correct me if I'm wrong if this isn't an accurate portrayal of your views. As I understand you, because Chuck Hayes has these qualities you don't think he'll be a very good player (regardless of what the statistical record shows). I suppose you would not have supported giving Ben Wallace a chance to prove himself when he was in Washington after he played only 5 minutes a game? Doesn't matter than he was a highly effective rebounder, going by rebounding rate, or that he demonstrated he could block a lot of shots per minute -- he obviously would never be a good player. Dennis Rodman also fits the profile -- I guess he wouldn't have gotten many minutes off the bench for your team, huh? He only got 15 minutes a night his first year. He was undersized without much ability to create shots for himself or teammates. Yeah he made a ton of hustle plays while he was on the court-- no way that could be expected from him if he played more minutes. He was too small to play PF, and his offensive game was too limited for him to play SF. He'd never be more than a bit role-player. If I'm grossly mangling your argument, I apologize for the strawman, but honestly it appears that your arguments in this thread would be consistent with the above two paragraphs.
Well, simply looking at PPG Redick is nearly 10+ on Williams which is the jump from 17-18 to 26-27 is a big jump. And you thoroughly made that point. My only point is that Hayes isn't starter material ...at least not now and not on this team. But I would be disappointed if we didn't retain him next season because I agree with you that he should get more minutes. Undersized ...yes. But by itself is not a determining factor. I favor us picking up JJ Redick and he is undersized. High Profile. Well, not so worried about high profile but more interested in a history of winning particularly if he is the #1 guy on the team. Limited Offense. I am very concerned about this. Ideally Yao needs guys that can space the floor. Another low post player clogging up the lane isn't optimal, IMO. Hustle: You need hustle guys and I love his energy. I'm simply saying guys that rely on a hustle game may not translate if they need to play big minutes. JVG benched him: Well, the coach gets to see the players in practice daily. He knows better what they are capable of than what we see in games. I'm all for giving Hayes a few more minutes and seeing what he can do but there is no way he's getting the most minutes and he definately isn't starting. For every example like this I can probably (if I felt like it) give you 1000 examples of players that didn't get many minutes ...and rightfully so. Again, in summary ...I like Chuck Hayes and I want to retain him and see him grow. But I'd also like to get an upgrade to Stro and Juwan and allow Chuck to be our energy guy off the bench until he develops his offense more.
I agree with this completely, which is why I think some players prospers under a critical eye like JVG and others shrivel up. I think Stro would do better if he just played, and knew he was going to play. Hopefully this summer he is busting his butt and will come back a monster. DD
I'd like to see Swift get the most minutes out of the group. Not that he really deserves it, but I want to see what Swift could do with more minutes and maybe more freedom. The guy already does 10 & 5, I think those are pretty decent numbers considering playing in limited minutes off the bench and w/ JVG breathing down his neck every second he is in the game. We all know what Juwan can and cannot do, there are no suprises there. I am still cautiously optomistic about Swift.
Wouldn't it be something if the Rockets get Redick or a SG and Swift comes back as a monster, ready to play? That would be like getting 2 new players to add to Yao and Tmac. DD
Wake up; the dream is over. Welcome back to reality. Take a shower, shave and go to work. The "Swift comes back as a monster" comment is what went over the top.
PPG = very overrated stat. Scoring, in general, is overrated. In fact, by the quick and dirty game score method (the PER approximation, I mentioned earlier in the thread): Code: [COLOR=Navy] mpg GS/g GS/40m[/COLOR] Sheldon Williams 33.3 18.6 22.3 J.J. Redick 37.1 18.1 19.6 Per game, Sheldon put up slightly better numbers. Per minute, the difference is even more apparent. Additionally, this doesn't even fully take into account the impact Sheldon had on the defensive end. For all the publicity J.J. Redick got with his scoring outburts, I'd say Sheldon is the better player going by the numbers. I don't know what your qualifications are for "starter material". All I'm saying is I think playing Hayes on the court the most minutes (i.e. more than Howard or Swift) gives us the best chance of winning. If there's some other criteria you have for a starter (like all starters must have a certain offensive skillset), then I'd like to know what that is. So ... you don't deny that you wouldn't favor giving Ben Wallace or Dennis Rodman a chance to show how good they are? And if there are a 1000 counter examples, name some players who put up comparable numbers, per minute, to Chuck Hayes (playing at least, let's say, 400 minutes) but didn't prove to be a productive player when given significant minutes. I bet you'll have a hard time coming up with names. I provided ample evidence that our offense was just fine last year with Hayes on the floor. In fact, it was actually much better than with Howard or Swift, because Hayes was highly efficient, rarely turned the ball over, and he grabbed a ton of offense rebounds. I think you are overvaluing the need for a versatile offensive player at the four position, and very much underestimating the value Chuck Hayes brings. So much so that you'd actually prefer playing Juwan Howard and Stromile Swift (both very poor rebounders and defensive players, with very modest offensive skills) to Chuck Hayes. Frankly, it seems to me you're missing the big picture of what winning basketball is about.
Here's a graph, comparing how they got their offense last season: From the above, you can see the plays off which they took the shot, got fouled and took freethrows, or committed a turnover. How effective were they at each of these play types? The numbers are below, measured in "points per play" (or PPP). I only listed the numbers for their most frequent plays. Note that this doesn't take into account passing or assists. The exception is PostUpD which specifically are post ups where the player is double teamed and he commits the turnover, or he passes it out to another player who takes the shot, gets fouled, or commits a turnover himself. Code: [COLOR=Navy] Trans SpotUp ISO Cut P&R OffReb PostUpD PostUp[/COLOR] Howard 1.25 0.92 0.71 1.19 1.03 0.81 0.93 0.79 Swift 0.79 0.87 0.66 1.39 0.91 1.16 0.58 0.88 Hayes 1.23 - - 1.13 1.43 1.05 - 1.22 All this info is from mysynergysports.com, btw.
Yes, I know which is why I said "simply." That being said, if Redick got more minutes than Williams, it is probably because Redick was more important to his team. So in this case, using PER stats is misleading. blah blah. I'm not a big fan of PER stats, as you can see. And all I'm saying is our best PF is not currently on the roster. Saying Hayes is better than Swift or Howard is like saying getting punched in the face is better than getting hit with a cast iron pan. You do some amazing research. I hate to continue to waste your time because I have no interest in doing that level of research. So lets just agree to disagree on this one.
That's fine if you don't like using PER stats. But, in no way, is PPG a better stat. If you think PER is worthless, than PPG has to be even more worthless. Also, there are numerous examples in the NBA of players playing less minutes per game than other players on the team, even though they were the best player. Tim Duncan, for instance. If the player happens to get into foul trouble a lot (like Yao Ming) or if there's better depth at the position already, a player's minutes might also be limited. Well, I thought you were saying that Hayes shouldn't even get more minutes than those two. Sorry if I misunderstood. The point of the thread is to limit discussion to the three current PFs and who should get the most minutes amongst them. So if you want to consider the scenario in which we get another, better PF, then who amonst the current three should get the second most minutes. Alright. No problem.
If we stand pat, the majority of the minutes should go to Hayes. We may not need to start him, but we need his effort on the court for 26-30 mins a game. Have 'Stro start and have Hayes come in after him. Then put 'Stro back in, in spot situations.
Yes, and that proves my point. When I brought it up, I was simply using PPG to point out that JJ has a clear record of outproducing offensively than Williams (and this team needs to add offense) but that simply looking at PPG doesn't give you the whole story. ...no stat would. Looking at PER stats wouldn't tell you who the better player is either. Stats just get you in the door but to make your final decision, you gotta go beyond stats. To start the season, Juwan would be my starter barring that Stromile makes some incredible turnaround or Hayes plays like a monster in camp. I'd give all 3 ample playing time to see what kind of chemistry we got. For me, its a toss up right now. The one who plays the best early in the season gets the most PT. Simple as that. That being said, I'd rather see the Rockets make big changes at backup PG (or maybe starting), starting SG and backup SF before the PF spot. I'd be content, but not thrilled, with our current PF's as long as we upgraded the other spots. Then I'd hope we upgraded the PF spot shortly thereafter. But if we get to draft a nice PF or a good trade falls in our lap, I'd be happy with that too ...but that may leave our other spots too thin. I gotta wait and see how everybody looks in camp. HOPEFULLY, Stro will start to acheive some of his potential. If he can, he is the obvious choice. Hayes needs to work on his jumper this summer. I'm sure they told him that. Because if he comes back with a jumper then this guy has a solid NBA career ahead of him. Juwan, well, you know what you get with him. He plays smart and spaces the floor well next to Yao. Given what I've seen from all three in the past, in close games I'd default to him in in the 4th quarter (assuming one of the others isn't having a great game or matchup problems) because I know he won't kill me with mental mistakes. That's about the best thing I can say about Juwan. I hope by the trade deadline, we've made an upgrade at the PF spot. Those are just my thoughts. Don't bother doing any more research for Hayes on my behalf. We can continue the thread, if you like, but without the hard push for Hayes. I respect your opinion and fully appreciate why you like him ...I'm just not there yet. Hopefully he'll prove me wrong next season!!!
Hayes off the ball movement is superb. Far better than any of our guards at cutting to the basket and positioning himself in front of his man. But he needs guards with perimeter shooting to be an effective 15+ mpg backup. Doesn't have the size or athleticism to finish with defenders near the hoop, doesn't have the jumper to sag back and play the mid-range game. Defensively, the stats with Hayes on the court are skewed. He rarely defended premier PF's and mainly played against 2nd tier guys. You're naive if you think someone with his size and offensive ability can be more than a 20 mpg backup. But with perimeter shooting that doesn't allow defenses to double Yao off the ball, Hayes can be an impact bench player contributing with his intangibles. Wingspan is everything, height is nothing. Code: Name Height Height Weight [b]Wingspan[/b] Reach (with shoes) Hayes, Chuck 6' 5½" 6' 6¾" 232.4 [b]6' 10"[/b] 8' 8½" http://www.insidehoops.com/chicago-camp-measurements.shtml
