Biggio should be a lock. Played baseball the right way when I was still an active fan. Class, hustle, and was an all-around great player at three positions. I voted for Berkman because he's a solid player who has been under-appreciated his whole career. He's a good hitter, but I wouldn't say he's a lock. I will go ahead and bet that Bagwell never makes it. He didn't make it to 500 home runs and I wouldn't be surprised to see his name eventually come up on some steroid reports. He never won a World Series, which doesn't hurt Biggio because of the type of player that Biggio was in spite of that. Bagwell is part of an era that baseball, and now-jaded fans such as myself, would rather forget. I'd like to give him the benefit of the doubt, but I just can't.
That is a stupid reason. While nobody is above suspicion, you can not blame those that have not been named. I have no reason to think anyone was clean, but I hope many were. Every era has had different advantages & disadvantages.
Roger will eventually get in ... it might just be quite a long time before it happens, but he will get in. I think Biggio gets in, but unfortunately I think Bags is going to fall just short.
From baseball-reference's HOF monitor (one of the best formulas out there to predict future HOFers): Jeff Bagwell: Black Ink Batting - 24 (81), Average HOFer ≈ 27 Gray Ink Batting - 157 (77), Average HOFer ≈ 144 Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 149 (82), Likely HOFer ≈ 100 Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 59 (34), Average HOFer ≈ 50 Craig Biggio: Black Ink Batting - 17 (131), Average HOFer ≈ 27 Gray Ink Batting - 104 (206), Average HOFer ≈ 144 Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 169 (63), Likely HOFer ≈ 100 Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 55 (43), Average HOFer ≈ 50 Lance Berkman: Black Ink Batting - 8 (283), Average HOFer ≈ 27 Gray Ink Batting - 102 (215), Average HOFer ≈ 144 Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 96 (161), Likely HOFer ≈ 100 Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 42 (124), Average HOFer ≈ 50 Roy Oswalt: Black Ink Pitching - 14 (153), Average HOFer ≈ 40 Gray Ink Pitching - 111 (183), Average HOFer ≈ 185 Hall of Fame Monitor Pitching - 55 (226), Likely HOFer ≈ 100 Hall of Fame Standards Pitching - 34 (104), Average HOFer ≈ 50 What does it all mean? Jeff and Craig are going to get in, both likely first ballot (as long as nothing bad is said about Bagwell with steriods). Serioously, besides the old guys, nobody else of note is eligible when Bagwell is up. It also means that if Roy and Lance continue on their current career paces, they too will have the necessary requirments to make the HOF.
Just throwing out hypotheticals, if you discount his last 2 seasons and assume he continued hitting 39 homers a year (his average in his prime). If he played to age 40, he would have had 614 home runs. If you go more conservative and say he naturally declines and averaged 32 homers a season over those last 5 seasons (to age 40), he would have had 579 home runs.
Biggio and Randy Johnson are the locks. Don't know on Bagwell, but Pallilo has mentioned a couple of times there's no one else better or really close that becomes eligible the year Bagwell does other than Bagwell. Think Wags has a shot?
Biggio is first ballot. Bagwell is first or second ballot. Roger Clemens is a first ballot. East Coast bias trumps steroids. Clemens just on the strength on his Bosox years should be a first ballot. Randy Johnson is a first ballot. Roy will be hard pressed to get in at all. I don't think he will have the number of wins it will take. Andy Pettitte with his 223 wins and WS rings was a very good pitcher but not in the Hall of Fame class. See Career Leaders & Records for Wins. 300 wins is a HoF lock. Tommy John (288), Bert Blyleven (287) and Jim Kaat (283) did not make the cut (right or wrong). Roy has 134 wins and will be damn lucky to double that before he retires.
Wags has 385 saves, #6 all time. See Career Leaders & Records for Saves. Lee Smith has about 100 more saves and he is not getting in. Trevor Hoffman (574 save, #1 all time) and Mariano Rivera (505, #2 all time) should both be first ballots. It would not surprise me if neither gets in.
It wouldn't surprise you if Mariano Rivera wasn't a first ballot hall of famer? There is no possible way he doesn't get in immediately.
Baseball HoF voters have traditionally treated relief pitchers as second class citizens. That is a fact.
Lee Smith should be in the Hall of Fame; it is a travesty that he is not. Mariano Rivera should be a first ballot, and so should Trevor Hoffman. If these baseball writers don't do that, they should all abdicate their responsibilities and publicly decry themselves as daft morons.
Every shred of credibility they have left will be gone. That said, I have some pretty unpopular opinions about the Hall, so I probably think differently about it than these guys in the first place. Pete Rose should be in. Mark McGwire should be in. Barry Bonds should be in. Roger Clemens should be in. Palmeiro is borderline. Sosa should be in. I realize I'm in the minority, and I don't expect everyone to feel the way I do. But that's how I feel about it.
Rivera is averaging 70 innings per year. Quality starters average between 150 and 200 innings over 30 starts. This appears to be the reason that reliefers get the shaft.
Unless you're applying an incredibly high burden of proof - almost all of is productivity came after there is a substantial amount of evidence that he began using steroids, complete with failed drug tests (along with his other cheating). On what basis then does he even merit consideration?
I'd agree with all of those except McGwire. He was a power hitter that did little else. He had about 5-6 great years, not a decades worth. Part of it is due to injury, but half his career wasn't that impressive.
