I suppose that can be said of any player rated anywhere on any GM's draft board. But the issue at hand is what MOREY thinks of Hill as a player and as a trade asset. To give some perspective, I would be willing to bet that Morey had Jermaine Taylor rated somewhere in the low to mid 20s on his draft board. I hold that Morey did not have Hill rated nearly as high as where those draft picks will likely end up being. Hence, Hill was not as important to him as those picks. It is possible, however, that Morey has a sense of what OTHER GMs value more than the Rockets value, and Jordan Hill may be one such "asset". Hence, wanting to use him as a trade chip this offseason to acquire a star player via sign-and-trade.
This would be my guess as well. Regardless, what he thinks of Hill, Morey has dropped lots of clues that size, athleticism and potential are clearly overvalued on average in some pick ranges (and possibly undervalued in other ranges). There are many examples of reaching for size and potential (*cough* Seattle/OKC with Saer Sene, Robert Swift etc.) so there historically has been a market for these big guys who are underdeveloped but have potential in some ways.
I think people highly overestimate this. Yes, they're the Knicks. Yes, they've been terrible. But, 1.) There are multiple scenarios in which they become a good team next year, and not all of them involve LeBron. They have a couple of decent young players, and a chance to hit on any number of stars. With the way the East looks right now, that could be enough to get them in the playoffs (or at least towards the back of the lottery). 2.) There are also multiple scenarios in which we end up being not so good next year. What if Yao goes down again? Or he and/or Martin miss 20+ games each? If you're looking at say swapping the 19th pick for the 15th, sure that's an upgrade, but the value of the pick swap is dependent on how bad they are and how good we are. As for the pick in 2011, it's just way too early to say. Best case scenario to me would be Donnie Walsh panicking and somehow giving two mediocre stars like David Lee and Rudy Gay max type deals. Even if Walsh strikes out in 2010, if he doesn't panic, he can try again the following summer with a guy like Amare. Depending on Donnie Walsh to panic is not the same as depending on Isiah Thomas to panic.
Bima, I respect your writing and all, but the chances of New York retooling overnight with a couple of max players in the offseason in my opinion leaves a very remote chance of getting a top five pick or even a lottery pick on the 2011 draft swap. The Knicks are going for broke in free agency this offseason and objectively I see them getting dramatically better even though I bleed rocket red like most of us in here. Also I hope Morey can find a long athletic 4 with true size (Hill) in this upcoming draft that averaged out college around 18-20 pts, 10+ boards and a couple of tap outs a game in big program conference. Personally I think the rockets had Hill heavily scouted since they had the low down on Budinger in Arizona and outside of Martin he was there 2nd target. The rockets are going to have a solid shot at adding another big ie.(5) in the upcoming draft and they can do it on the cheap. Hope Morey siezes the opportunity.
Good post Nike. I think the real trade bait in this draft is the New York swap if they can trade it and the NY 2012 pick. Morey can move up in this upcoming strong draft using those assets and not role the dice on the Knicks getting a Lebron.
Good points NIKEstrad. The x-factor more seldomly discussed with the Knicks is the quality of the bench they can assemble. If they hit gold with few veterans who sign cheap, they can possibly be quite competitive even without Lebron James. On the other hand, Amare + Gay + Chandler/Gallinari/Douglas with no bench is not scaring anybody.
Daryl Morey deals in numbers. Probabilities. The probability that the Knicks will strike out on Lebron, Wade and Bosh and once again finish in the middle of the lottery next year is FAR greater than the odds of them landing any one of those players and making the playoffs. I think most people would agree that the LIKELIHOOD is that Lebron James, Dwyane Wade and Joe Johnson all stay with their teams. I think most people can also agree that Miami (with Wade) and Chicago are much, much more desirable free agent destinations than New York, from a competitive standpoint (with little difference from a media market/social scene standpoint). Given these factors, I think it is PROBABLE that Cleveland, Orlando, Boston, Atlanta, Miami and Chicago are all better than the Knicks next year. Add to that improving franchises in Milwaukee and Charlotte, and making the playoffs in the East next year is not the easy task that many make it out to be. Also, even if the Knicks are good enough to "only barely miss the playoffs" in the East, that would not put them at the back end of the lottery. There would likely be at least 3 or 4 Western Conference teams next year who will miss the playoffs and be better than the 8th or 9th seed in the Eastern Conference. I think it is completely rationale, playing the probabilities, to say that the New York Knicks are more likely than not to be picking in the #6 to #9 range in the next two drafts, even if they add a Carlos Boozer or a Rudy Gay. NIKEstrad raises a lot of excellent points (as usual), but the chances of the Knicks becoming good--while of course a possibility--is not a PROBABILITY. I think Morey is playing the odds on this one. Either for the Rockets to use those picks or for the "perceived value" of those picks via trade.
Agreed. The interesting thing about these assets is the option value they represent. Trades are usually dependent upon discontinuities in the perceived values of different players. A pick from a team like the Lakers or Mavs in the next couple years is going to be towards the bottom of the first round, barring an extreme event. Likewise, teams like Minnesota or Indiana are probably not going to be very good. A team like the Knicks could go either way, depending on how free agency shakes out. These future picks have extremely high volatility surrounding them. They could realistically fall anywhere in the first round. Different teams are going to value those probabilities in different ways -- I wouldn't be surprised if some team out there has a dramatic enough difference in perspective to make us move those picks sooner rather than later. One of the better things that could happen for the picks would probably be a Cavs championship. If the possibility of LeBron to the Knicks is completely gone before draft day, the value of those picks bumps up since that would virtually guarantee the pick at least being in the top 20.
Nike, that is why I all of sudden became a huge huge fan rooting for the Cavs since the rockets made the NY trade. The value of those picks goes incrementally if Lebron is taken out of the equation.
I hope your right Bima, I just don't agree with you. Its very premature to even think who they might be able to sign, but New York is a sweet place to play especially with all those extra advertising dollars a max player can make. My call is Donnie Walsh is not stupid.
I hope the Knicks fail so the rockets can get a high lotto pick, but even without james,wade,bosh, they can still assemble a utah type of squad to make the playoffs in the east. I know some will laugh, but curry and his expiring along with galanari or chandler can also bring back a high quality player. That pick this year will also be enticing to a team also.
With a new CBA looming, fewer teams are going to want to dump talent for expiring contracts. If the salary cap is set much lower in the new CBA, that cap room might not be able to net a team very much. It might not be existent at all, even. And what pick are you talking about? The pick they've already traded to Utah?
At least with the planned CBA, we may see a more equal distribution of talent across the teams. That means no BS like what the Celtics and Lakers have with 3 All-Stars all on the same team.
Color me skeptical but I think DM already expects NY to be a good team next year or the year after. In one of his interviews right after the trade deadline DM said that there's a good chance Walsh will be able to do what he wants to do (i.e. build a decent team). As Nike already pointed out, the Knicks don't need to be world-beaters for our picks from them to be devalued-they just have to be a playoff team in the East. How hard is that to accomplish considering the wealth of free agents and the sheer amount of capspace they have? Even if none of the FAs leave their teams, the Knicks will still have their pick of the 2nd tier guys. Supposing they can't find those 2 max guys, and instead go to plan B, are you saying a team that has Rudy Gay, Boozer, a resigned David Lee and Mike Miller is not a playoff team in the East? IMHO that's why DM wouldn't agree to a straight up swap with NY-we wouldn't be getting enough value for Tmac to make it worthwhile. Of course I might be entirely wrong, but IMHO to him the NY assets were probably secondary to Kevin Martin, which of course means he doesn't think NY would be the worst team in the league this year or the next.
I think Morey's praise of the Knicks had more to do with not gloating over what almost everyone in America (outside of New York) viewed as a total bamboozling of the Knicks than it had to do with his actual opinion. He almosted NEEDED to say those things. Otherwise, who'd want to ever trade with him in the future? :grin: (By the way, I don't blame Donnie Walsh for this at all. Isiah Thomas painted that franchise into a corner, where going for broke with two max guys was the ONLY option for getting that franchise back on track anytime in the next decade. Walsh's hands were tied. And Morey took advantage of this.) And no, the Knicks probably could not realistically expect to field a team with Gay, Boozer, Lee and Miller. Remember, it will cost the Knicks a bunch of that cap room to retain Lee. Then, Gay will be looking to break the bank as a RESTRICTED free agent, and the Knicks would have to make a BIG offer to him in order for Memphis not to match. Boozer also wants big bucks. Miller would basically have to sign for the league minimum (unless there's a little bit more cap room left), but why would he do that when he could just take most/all of a better team's MLE? I just don't see a HIGHLY PLAUSIBLE scenario in which the Knicks are good next year, or the year after.
As I've mentioned before, Knicks only need to be good enough, to devalue those picks. E.g, Stephen Jackson = Bobcats in the playoffs. IMO, the Rockets should cash in those picks this off-season.
That team would get beat by the Bobcats. There's no defense in the lineup and D'Antoni is the coach. I don't see them having the cap room to sign all 4 players, unless they can convince David Lee and Boozer to take a starting salary of $6 mil.
Seriously? Well as far cap room goes they don't have to pay max amounts to these guys IMHO. Ben Gordon and Charlie V were resigned for more or less 1 max contract. and those guys were already overpaid at that point. I think the Jazz and Memphis won't keep Gay and Boozer if they go past the 10 million mark due to money issues, after all the Jazz gave Brewer this season to save money and the Grizz have Brewer now. Supposing Walsh splits the it at 12 mill a piece for both of them and gives another 12 mill to Lee, I fail to see how they can't get another impact FA with that ~9 mill they have left.
