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When is Astros offseason supposed to heat up?

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by rocket_red, Nov 30, 2005.

  1. NJRocket

    NJRocket Member

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    he came out and said we needed to get a bat last winter?
     
  2. Nick

    Nick Member

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    What about the track record of Mariano Rivera blowing the 2001 World Series, and the 2004 ALCS... or the track record of Eckersly blowing the 1988 World series...

    Those above three pitchers you mentioned were never in the same "league" as Lidge even when they were at their peak. Lidge was/is much closer to Rivera and Eck, in terms of 'status', then the guys you mentioned... so maybe the whole "lingering effect track record" thing should be re-evaluated for him.

    In the end, a guy who was 1 strike away from winning the NLCS MVP (as Lidge would have had game 5 been taken care of) deserves a little bit more respect than just another bum closer like Wholers, Mitch "wild thing" Williams or Kim.
     
  3. The Real Shady

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    He continued to blow games after the Pujols shot. Again, I think Lidge is going to be just fine after these playoffs, he has the mental makeup to get out of this. I'm just pointing out that it should be a concern.

    I don't like talking bad about Astros players. This all got started by a comparison of Jason Lane to Abreu which is just crazy. I'll stat my last point since I'm about to head out of work. How many five tool players are there in baseball? Not many, and Abreu is one of them. Gerry Hunsicker has said many times that letting Abreu get away from the astrso was one of his worst mistakes.
     
  4. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Member
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    and there's not a track record of players in their 30's inexplicably and suddenly losing it? i'd be more worried about abreu's sample size than lidge's.

    i don't even know what this means. he may wear manny's uniform, but abreu will never fill his shoes. and when sox fans find out they got $.50 on the dollar for one of the game's best hitters... he'll be famous alright, but for all the wrong reasons.
     
  5. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Member
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    no one compared lane to abreu; we compared lane/lidge to abreu. we also compared lane's salary to abreu's. but no one here would argue lane's better. but given the circumstances, he's certainly comparable.

    re: hunsicker - that happened in 1997. his regret was that he didn't get abreu in his prime. unless we're trading for that abreu, it's not relevant.
     
  6. Major

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    Something you guys have to consider... and this came up to an extent in the NYM thread. If you want to upgrade this team, it's not going to be "efficient". Lane, Burke, Qualls, Lidge, Willy, etc are all extremely good for their price. And you're not going to make a trade for someone nearly that efficient for the price. If this team is going to get better, you're going to have to get higher paid players. Saying we shouldn't trade Lane because he's good for his price is fine - but you keep doing that and you're not going to be able to improve the team anywhere.

    At some point, if you want to take the offense to another level, you have to get the Abreus or Manny's of the world - there's no other way around it, efficient or not. Adding Molina or a middle-of-the-road SS isn't going to do squat to the overall offence.
     
  7. Nick

    Nick Member

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    I think the biggest mistake for Abreu has to be from the Devil Rays... they got him for nothing, and they traded him for who again?
     
  8. Nick

    Nick Member

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    That's fine... but I wouldn't put Abreu and Manny on the same leve... I don't think its even close.

    Abreu is actually a lot like Beltran... without the spectacular post-season. He'll hit a decent power, and a solid average... give you some steals, and give you some solid defense.

    Manny, on the other hand, has GREAT average, GREAT power, GREAT clutchness... I mean, the guy is on the very very very short list of best pure hitters in the game.

    In the end, Abreu is not worth his contract... not in a million years. Manny, on the other hand, is the perennial MVP candidate, triple-crown contending beast that would only be rivaled in the NL by a healthy Bonds or Pujols.
     
  9. Major

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    I agree that Manny is on a whole different level, but Abreu's an all-star level player himself. I think the Beltran comparison is a very good one. He'd make a huge impact in the middle of the order of his team, I think. Certainly not at the level of a Manny though.
     
  10. Nick

    Nick Member

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    Agreed... he would make an impact... if he was ON like Beltran was in the 2004 playoffs.

    I still remember how suprinsingly ineffective Beltran was towards the end of the 2004 regular season... he'd hit a couple of HR's every week, and get steals by the bunches... but throughout September, it was consistently Kent and Berkman who were driving in a ton of runs, and leading this offense. Hell, even Biggio was hitting his fair share down the stretch that year.

    The fact that Carlos was very ordinary in his first year as a Met was surpising, at first... but then it looked all-to-familiar to his regular season stint with the Astros (with a lower OBP, and lower slugging than what he did here).

    That being said, I still wished he was here... more than Abreu, and yes more than Manny.
     
  11. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Member
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    succumbing to message board frustration...

    if the phillies offer abreu for lane, i'm guessing even members of lane's family would be on board. that's not, however, what's being discussed. trading lidge and burke (or another burke-like prospect) for abreu is what's being talked about, and the net result of that is negligible, if any. abreu is likely better than lane, but i think they're closer than qualls is to lidge. i think the jump from set-up to closer is difficult to master, difficult to predict and could derail the whole season (as it did in ’00 when wagner got hurt).

    last year, based on their performance after the all-star break, abreu would have been a downgrade from lane.

    so again - please - someone explain how trading one of baseball's best closers and a decent prospect for abreu makes sense and/or the team appreciably better when abreu's numbers are comparable to lane's and handicaps the payroll. that's all i'm asking.

    i would HATE to deal for abreu then have adam dunn come available at the deadline. i just can’t see how a 31-yr. old good, but never great player who showed telling signs of diminishing skills for an extended stretch last year and would cost you a great closer, a prospect and payroll flexibility is worth it.
     
  12. Major

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    Lane, for all his numbers, can't drive in runs. He's not disciplined and he doesn't bring all that much to the table except the occsional HR. Abreu, on the other hand, is a notably better hitter (0.920 OPS career average; had a 0.970 OPS in 2004), gold-glove fielder, gives you 30-40 steals, and is a legitimate all-star caliber player. If you want to judge Abreu based on his half-season - fine. I choose to judge him based on an 8 year history of consistency and solid production. He's a left-handed, high average, high OBP hitter - everything this team is looking for. I'm sorry, but Lane to Abreu is not a small upgrade. No one pitches around Lane or has to worry when Lane comes up to bat. Put Abreu in the middle of the lineup and it changes the entire dynamic of the offense. He's the ideal #3 hitter in front of Berkman. Depending on Bagwell's health, you may not even be replacing Lane - you might just move him to LF.

    Is it going to cost something? Of course. If you want to upgrade the team, you're always going to have to make tough decisions and give up something of value. If it takes Lidge, so be it. Qualls has great stuff and can replace him - maybe not quite as good, but I expect he'll be fine as a closer. So you're getting a substantial downgrade in your 7th inning reliever (whoever replaces Qualls), a small downgrade at closer, and losing a bench player/prospect.

    And yes, you're raising salary. If you can find a way to improve this team substantially without raising salary, great. But I don't see it happening. I'm a big believer in the method of solid, stable success - but at some point, you have to take that change to get a difference maker. We've done it midseason in the past with Beltran and Randy Johnson. Here, you have a similar opportunity to do it from day #1, and you're not even trading for a half-season rental. To me, that's a no-brainer deal.
     
  13. Major

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    I guess Lane not driving in runs is a bit unfair - he got his share of RBIs. But he's not the guy you want at the plate when you need an RBI. Abreu, over a 1200 game career, is substantially better with men on - higher numbers across the board. He's the classic middle of the order player that we need.

    http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/5698/situational?year=career&type=Batting

    No men on: .283 avg, .873 ops

    men on: .327 avg, .983 ops

    Over 2000 at-bats in each situation, so its not some kind of statistical anomoly. He changes the way the other team has to approach your lineup. Just as Beltran did even when he was struggling. That's the impact of an Abreu-type player than Jason Lane can never have.
     
  14. Nick

    Nick Member

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    I wouldn't call Lidge-Qualls a "small downgrade."

    We don't really know what Qualls will do once he has to face ALL the pressure of a save situation in the 9th inning. Hell, Dotel was 10x better as an setup guy than Qualls was, and even he couldn't handle the pressure of being a solid closer (at least not for us).

    Frankly, Wheeler was the guy who took Lidge's place when Lidge was hurt... and I think he did a great job because he knows how to handle it mentally. I'm not sure Qualls is completely immune to a total breakdown.
     
  15. Major

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    True - there's always that chance. Then again, there's always the chance that Lidge is mentally shaken from the playoffs. To me, the best predictor of a what to expect of a closer is what they do in other crunch-time situations. For two years, Qualls has been overwhelmingly very good in the playoffs, in some pretty tough situations. It could, of course, backfire. But you're not likely to win again with this offense because realistically, the pitching isn't going to be that good again. Abreu, to me, more than makes up for any loss at the 7th inning / closer spot unless Qualls just totally sucks it up. Besides which, as you mention, we also have Wheeler if Qualls can't handle the pressure. One of them, you'd hope, could handle the job.
     
  16. Nick

    Nick Member

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    If thats the case, why not just trade Qualls... if he's perceived as "less likely for a mental breakdown", and "a lights out playoff performer"... and he's younger, and doesn't have the history of arm troubles that Lidge has had... and he's still going to be paid minimally next year... he should be very attractive.

    I've just seen a ton of "set-up" guys like Qualls fail to become a consitent closer. He doesn't really have a K pitch, but he gets a lot of strikeoluts.... like Dotel did. Kyle Farnsworth is another example.

    Manny for Lidge, I'd do in a second... but not Abreu for Lidge. Abreu has a lot of doubts as well... and if he isn't going to do better than Jeff Kent did for us from 2002-2004, I don't want him (and there's nothing out there to guarantee that he'll add more of an impact than Kent did).
     
  17. Major

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    I'd be happy to trade Qualls as opposed to Lidge, if that's an option. I'm just saying - you've gone tons of depth in the bullpen. You always trade from depth, so I'm not opposed to trading any of them. I think I just value Abreu more highly than you. To me, outside of a Manny-type player, I think he's as good as anyone, and a perfect fit for this team in terms of defense, work-ethic, consistency, etc. And that stat that I posted above, to me, is the biggest thing. On a team that has some really, really bad clutch hitting, having a guy in the middle of the lineup with a *career* 0.327 average with runners on is just ridiculously good. Even last year, when Abreu struggled, he had an OPS well over 0.900 with people on. The previous year was over 1.000.

    I think Kent is a relatively good comparison. Take Kent, add consistency, add clutch hitting (he's far superior to Kent in that category, as good as Kent was), gold glove defense, and 30+ steals speed, and you've got Abreu.
     
  18. Major

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    Oh, and add about 7 or 8 years younger, and no history of injury.
     
  19. The Real Shady

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    It's called an east coast bias. This is where players from the east coast get more media coverage than other players. Abreu will get more recognition playing for Boston.

    Manny is one of the best hitters in the game but you are also paying $20 million per season for him. Plus, Manny plays lousy defense and has no speed what so ever. Manny can't be touched at the plate, but Abreu brings everything to the table.

    And Lane's numbers are in no way comparable to Abreu's. There is more to baseball than home runs.
     
  20. NJRocket

    NJRocket Member

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    you said that Lane was a younger cheaper version of Abreu.....those who argued said you cannot compare the 2...regardless of salary
     

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