The media and the Republican establishment are backing Rubio as if he was in second place, or as if this was now a two-man race, with Rubio being one of the two. However, the numbers just do not bear that out. In fact, Rubio is still in third place in the RCP national poll average, with Cruz at 20.3 and Rubio at 16.7. Also, let's remember that Ted Cruz appears to be on track to win his home state of Texas (RCP poll average) by 7, while Rubio is on track to lose his home state of Florida (RCP poll average) by 19.5. If Rubio loses Florida, especially by any kind of double digit margin, he is going to be mortally wounded. At that point, it will be time to reassess this race, yet again. And if Rubio is taken out, then who becomes the primary Republican alternative to Donald Trump?
Um... what are you trying to say here? Cruz did place a hold on the bill, which delayed aid to Flint for a week. And now the bill is also being delayed by Senator Lee... the closest thing to a "friend" of Cruz's in the senate. Don't see how this can be spun positively by Cruz...
The reason they are backing Rubio is because he is the only chance the Republicans have of winning in November.
If Rubio is taken out, there won't be an alternative to Trump because Trump will near-mathematically be the nominee.
If Rubio loses in Florida, he will be mortally wounded. He cannot win the Republican nomination if he cannot even win his home state. That goes for Cruz too, by the way. If either one of these candidates loses their home state, they are effectively done. Cruz is on track to win his, while Rubio is on track to lose his quite badly. So if Rubio loses his home state of Florida, then what happens?
Then that just makes it more likely for Trump to be the nominee because Cruz cared more about staying in the race then he cared about the Republican party having a chance to win in November. There's only one guy with a chance to actually win, either you support him, or you support Hillary. Right now, you are a REALLY strong Hillary supporter.
The only chance for Trump to not be the nominee is for everyone not named Rubio (yes including Cruz) to drop out before Tuesday.
Cruz's conceit and flawed perception of himself will prevent him from acknowledging defeat thereby keeping him in the race to the detriment of the party. Makes me happy. HUBRIS
But would a majority of the potential Cruz vote actually go to Rubio rather than Trump if Cruz is gone? Would a majority of the potential Rubio vote actually go to Cruz if Rubio is gone?
This is the problem. Cruz voters likely go more to Trump than anyone else because they are in the "burn it all down" camp. Rubio voters don't go anywhere - they are establishment guys and generally aren't going to be comfortable with either Cruz or Trump. So Rubio stays in it until the end. Cruz staying in actually helps Rubio. The question is whether Rubio can pull in the Kasich and Carson voters are start eeking out some victories. Fortunately for him, Trump can't get a huge delegate lead next week, and Rubio could theoretically erase his entire deficit by sweeping a few big winner-take-all states like FL and OH. But at some point soon, Rubio needs to actually win somewhere.
I think there are 13 contests on March 1. If Trump wins 10 or more of them then it's pretty much over (as if it isn't already). I think in addition to that, the other three primaries need to all go to only one of the other candidates to have a chance. It doesn't matter which one. But if they split the states between two or more candidates who aren't Trump, then it's as good as over.
I don't know what to make of Carson voters. On one hand, they are anti-establishment, so that points towards Trump/Cruz. But they also like that he's not as angry/childish and more statesman-like, so that points more towards a Rubio.
I think you're right. Trump leads by 13 points in Alabama, 25 points in Virginia, 21 points in Massachusetts, 20 points in Florida, 24 points in Michigan, 17 points in Illinois, 10 points in Wisconsin, 8 points in Oklahoma, 27 points in New Jersey, 12 points in Georgia, 5 points in Ohio, 15 points in Vermont, 9 points in North Carolina, 20 points in West Virginia. The only states he's not leading are Texas, New Mexico, and Utah and those states are split between Cruz and Rubio. I think it would take an incredibly dramatic implosion for Trump not to win the nomination at this point. I'm a little in shock honestly. I didn't think the Republican Party was this far down the road to destroying itself.
I'm shocked as well. I guess they've cornered the Reality TV watching demographic in their little tent. EDIT: Meanwhile, the rumors just won't go away. Is Ted Cruz the real identity of the Zodiac?
Classic Zodiac Killer Cruz. http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/27/politics/ted-cruz-donald-trump-marco-rubio-bickering/ "This is my country, damn it!" a visibly stirred Cruz said in a rare display of profanity. "Stand up and fight for it together." The Texas senator spent a full three minutes here needling Trump for his stand on releasing his tax returns, which the billionaire has said he will not do until he is cleared of IRS audits. The unprompted riff was altogether Cruz's most extensive critique of Trump's personal financial dealings, during which Cruz went as far as to say that it is an open question whether Trump has committed crimes. "Now this is a man who prides himself on not getting scared of anything," said Cruz, who poked at Trump for "inheriting $200 million from his daddy." "So you're telling me, a few months from now, you may be charged with tax fraud? Now maybe not -- I'm not suggesting it -- and I'm saying release the returns and let the people see. Because if we're sitting here in September and October, how much can you imagine the mainstream media salivating over whatever scandal they can paint on Donald Trump."
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">.<a href="https://twitter.com/tedcruz">@tedcruz</a> releases 9 years of tax returns and calls on <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump">@realDonaldTrump</a> to release his returns too.</p>— Tom Abrahams (@tomabrahams) <a href="https://twitter.com/tomabrahams/status/703757725805756417">February 28, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Tax graphic from <a href="https://twitter.com/tedcruz">@tedcruz</a> press release <a href="https://t.co/i1B7CM23xI">pic.twitter.com/i1B7CM23xI</a></p>— Tom Abrahams (@tomabrahams) <a href="https://twitter.com/tomabrahams/status/703757912586502144">February 28, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">As Marco Rubio did, Ted Cruz is only releasing the first two pages per year. Not full tax returns, but the summaries.</p>— Teddy Schleifer (@teddyschleifer) <a href="https://twitter.com/teddyschleifer/status/703759023422701568">February 28, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
I get the feeling that a lot of these voters are enjoying the implosion knowing what a joke Trump is because of decades of swallowing poison joke candidates (not what they say, no no , they say the "right things", but it's what they don't do once they're in) and feeling like the system's rigged. Trump uses that page from the Hillbilly Playbook for Ivy League Hucksters with better gravitas. When The Zodiac Makes His Move, Watch Out... And Dial 9-1-1
