Want an update? Sure. Trump dominated in his home state of New York and is poised to do pretty well in the other remaining Northeast states next Monday. After that, things do not look quite as rosy, which is why he and his supporters are pretty constantly trying to make the case for a massive change in the nomination requirements so that he would no longer require a majority of the delegates to win the Republican nomination. Needless to say, both political parties have required their nominee to have at least a majority (sometimes more) in order to receive their party's nomination for as long as the US has been a country. But clearly Donald Trump and his supporters are reading the writing on the wall, and are starting to realize that he is not likely to win if this requirement applies to him too. So that is what much of the whining and blubbering from the Trumplettes has been about lately. At this point in the race, we really need to see how the final delegate totals shake out going into the convention. It appears to almost everyone who follows this stuff that nobody will have the required 1,237 delegates going into the convention. Anyway, if Trump does not have 1,237 going in and is not so close to that number that he can persuade a few marginal delegates to put him over the top (probably upwards of 1,200 going in), then he is in a tough spot. Also, if Trump does not win on the first ballot, which it increasingly appears he will not, then he is almost certainly not going to win the Republican nomination at all. If it goes to a second ballot, Ted Cruz is in the leading position to win the nomination. Not only is he the leading delegate winner behind Trump, he has been extremely smart and extremely active in recruiting delegates to support him at the state party level. Cruz has even recruited a large number of delegates to his side who will vote Trump on a first ballot, but appear to be poised to switch to Cruz on the second and later ballots. In fact, both Trump and Kasich have largely sat out this very important phase of the nominating contest. Some people are still trying to stir up the idea that the DC establishment types will try to change the rules and put in Jeb or Mitt or someone. But their chance to change these rules has been going on this week and they have not actually made a move to do this, as much as some of them would clearly like to. So the next chance to alter the rules will be at the convention, by the delegates themselves, many of who have been recruited directly by the Cruz campaign. Trump will also have people loyal to him, to be sure. Together, they and their delegates are not going to support any rules changes that would provide either of them any additional competition. So reports by partisan blogs, trolling political "journalists" and prime-time cable news opinion howlers notwithstanding, it does not appear this is likely to happen. Will Ted Cruz win the Republican nomination? I don't know for sure. But he has done a masterful job of giving himself a serious chance, even in the face of remarkable opposition by nearly all of the media and most of the DC establishment sorts. If Trump does not win on the first ballot, it does not appear that he will not win the nomination. At this point, if it goes to a second ballot, Cruz would have to be the favorite. That is as much speculating as we can probably do right now without knowing the actual delegate counts going into the convention. So Ted Cruz is looking remarkably strong at this point, all things considered.
MojoMan, you and Bobby are on the same fantasy island. If Trump is short of 1237 but finishes strong, he will be the nominee. Just accept it. Cruz is such a radioactive lying jerk, his own party can't get behind him as the anti-Trump. If anyone else but Cruz was in the same position, we would have a contest. Recent staffing moves by Trump show he seems to understand discipline is required to win. If (1) he continues toning down the incendiary rhetoric and (2) wins California, it's over and done. Has Trump finally realized once and for all he must take the advice of people who understand the process more than he does? Stay tuned. I still have doubts.
If Trump finishes short of 1,237 on the first ballot at the convention, he loses and will not be the Republican nominee. A majority of delegates has always been required to win the nomination of any political party in this country, for as long as the US has been a country, and it will also be required again this time. Donald Trump will not receive a special exemption from this requirement, no matter how many name-calling temper-tantrums and hissy-fits he has. You are the one on fantasy island if you believe differently.
I didn't say he would get an exemption. Like someone said above, "trust the process". The party is likely doomed to lose with Trump and would also be doomed with a dead weight like Cruz. Sam, BTW, that was a great post.
The process requires the nominee to receive the support of a majority of delegates which is a minimum of 1,237. For Donald Trump, if he can pull that together on the first ballot at the convention, he will be the nominee. If he fails to do so, he will not be the nominee. It really is shaping up to be just as simple as that.
Ted Cruz continued to rule in the delegate selection contests across the country this weekend, which could well lead to his receiving the Republican nomination if Trump fails to secure it for himself on the first ballot in Cleveland in July. Despite Donald Trump's recent hiring of Paul Manafort to oversee this incredibly important part of the campaign process, it appears that it may be perhaps too little, too late; at least as far as securing a majority of actual human beings who truly support Trump to serve as delegates at the convention. Once again, we see Ted Cruz schooling Donald Trump in "The Art of the Deal".
Is he? There is mounting evidence that Trump calling out Cruz' delegate maneuvering is resulting in more votes for Trump.... Which may result in Trump having a far better shot at winning the nomination outright. Part of the problem is when it comes to picking a President, America doesn't want a loser. Ted Cruz is basically running as a loser, he can't beat Trump straight up in popular vote or electoral votes, but can win in a contest election. That is a loser mentality.
#1 Trump isn't just looking good in the North East, some of the polling recently has him ahead in Indiana. He doesn't have to win the states he isn't expected to win like Oregon to get the nomination. A lot of it hinges on California. #2 Trump doesn't need to be at 1,200 to be in a position to get other delegates on the first vote. He can probably be 75-80 delegates behind and still cobble together enough on the first vote. #3 Trump is riding a wave of fairly good media coverage and has momentum. That is only going to build assuming he does as well as expected in the North East. The media narrative will be one of inevitability. #4 Running on the platform of being a loser doesn't sit well a lot of Republicans and Trump benefits from that. The more Cruz discusses contested conventions and tries to maneuver for the second ballot, the more some voters see him as a loser trying to overcome a more popular candidate. #5 Trump has dialed back the rhetoric greatly, and he is gaining voters. All of his talk of deporting Muslims, Mexican criminals and racial tension is easily forgivable by enough Republicans because they believe much the same thing but like it to be packaged a little more gently.
Well well. Cruz continued his nosedive after getting pancaked in New York last week. His candidacy is on life support. The question is will Cruz suspend his campaign if he loses Indiana. It's Indiana or bust and bust is more likely. Mojoman, your hero is cooked.
Ted Cruz has been mathematically eliminated from being able to receive enough votes on the first ballot to secure the nomination. It's all up to Trump being eliminated from such a possibility and going to a contested convention. But Trump has already ordered his storm troopers to march on Cleveland. I imagine that if Cleveland turns out to be a contested convention then he will order them to burn down the convention - Reichstag style. Really, the only move for Cruz to make is the one back to Canada.
I think Ted was poised to really make a run at the nomination until this whole Stryper story broke. That really confused some of his supporters who were on the fence.
Erick Erickson, initially a Marco Rubio supporter and now a backer of Ted Cruz, provides some perspective in the aftermath of Donald Trump's long anticipated victory in five states in the Northeast last night: Of course Trump wants to present himself as the "presumptive" nominee, as he is the frontrunner and the primary schedule is starting to wind down, with only ten more contests left to go. Also, the mass media, who have profited so handsomely of of his bombastic shock-jock candidacy, are doing what they can to facilitate this presentation, as they will do almost anything to make sure that their golden goose does not die, so their ratings gravy train does not end. All this, even though Trump has still not obtained the required delegates to win the nomination, and there is still substantial doubt about his actual ability to do so. To win the Republican nomination, you have to win 1,237 delegates on a single ballot, at the convention. Donald Trump still has his work cut out for him and obviously Ted Cruz does too, probably even moreso. As Erickson points out, Ted Cruz needs a win in Indiana to restore his momentum for the rest of the contest and to give him the velocity he requires to propel him into the convention with the pace required to gather the majority of the delegates at the convention to his side, delegates who are quite clearly anti-Trump in their sentiments. So it is on to Indiana. If Cruz comes out with a win, all systems are clearly "go".
what a f'n shmuck :grin: https://www.yahoo.com/news/cruz-hoosiers-basketball-ring-024556907.html Ted Cruz bungles ‘Hoosiers’ speech in Indiana, calls hoop a ‘basketball ring’
