What's a Number 1 Pick Worth?

DaDakota · Jan 10, 2012

heypartner said: ↑

Bird wasn't a 6th pick...he was super duper #1 pick. Auerbach drafted him a year before Bird announced his eligibility for the draft. Bird played another year of college. The NBA made a Bird Rule to prevent that from ever happening again.

Bird was effectively the #1 pick for Magic's draft, because he was picked a year before Magic was picked.

Auerbach did not tank to get Bird...he just found a loophole to draft him a year before anyone else considered it. The Celtics could have had the 14th pick and still drafted Bird that year.

What Auerbach did was tank the year AFTER the Bird pick when he was a Sr at Indiana State facing Magic in the Finals, so he could stockpile draft assets for the McHale and Parish picks that came later.

Carl Herrera...do not say what Auerbach did with Bird fits into any simple explanation.
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Yeah, I sort of said that 3 hours ago.

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=6542874&postcount=56

Slow pokes...SHEESH !

DD

Asian Sensation · Jan 10, 2012

A Number 1 pick is worth roughly 30% of a Championship team.

glynch · Jan 10, 2012

meh said: ↑

This is a good article with all the data.

http://82games.com/nbadraft2.htm

But in essence high picks are REALLY, REALLY good. Especially top 5, assuming you don't get the rare Kenyon Martin draft. It's not so much that they're sure things. But rather they are so much surer things than later draft picks. If the #1 pick hypothetically has a 20% chance of being a superstar and the 15th pick has 1% chance of being a superstar, the #1 pick is still really awesome by comparison.

Of course, the worth of a #1 pick has recently been mitigated by the fact that superstars actually have started changing address via FA due to the "max salary" rule. But if you can't snag a star via FA, then the pick is still very valuable.
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Good link. Sadly what is most relevant for the Rockets is the following quote on the 10 to 14 th pick.

This is where reality has to set in for fans. Your team did not make the playoffs, but as a consolation, you get a late lottery pick. You might as well be rolling out the red carpet for a role player, because that’s most likely what you’re going to get. For every one Reggie Miller, Kobe Bryant, or Karl Malone there are nearly ten Mateen Cleaves and Cherokee Parks
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Our chances of ever getting a superstar in the draft are virtually nil without tanking. In this current day and age only superstars attract superstar free
agents.

"This is where reality has to set in for fans." Enjoy the chance for an occasional most improved player and enjoy the occasional first round playoff appearance.

What is sad is that we are on a forum called "clutch fans" which evokes championships and we even recently had not one but two superstars due to the luck of getting Yao number one who attracted Tracy. The Steve Francis era may very well look good compared to the next few years, especially if we rebuild around young role players capable of just avoiding the lottery.

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