What will it take to make you seriously consider an EV?

[jiggy voice]What the hell are you even talking about?[/jiggy voice]

Seriously, as he rightly said, the batteries are absolutely central to the transportation mode we're discussing.

 

Mainly I just wanted to start a post with a "the hell?!" phrasing.

But I don't completely disagree. I don't really know how much looks factor into EV purchases so far, as plug ugly as the Leave, the Volt, Bolt, and Pious have been so far. It's almost like a ****ed-looking car is important.

 

I don't think it will be too hard for competitors to catch up now that there seems to be a much more directed focus at developing EVs and consumers seem to be more open to EVs. There may not be one single competitor, but the entire car industry as a whole represents the competitor in my eyes.

There is nothing special about Tesla's batteries. The Tesla powerwall is a battery pack for their cars and there is nothing special about it other than it is overpriced. They are able to mass produce them cost effectively and the battery packs are reliable which are pluses for them, but the technology isn't something groundbreaking.

https://stealthev.com/product/tesla-6-2-kwh-module-from-90kwh-pack/

Do you happen to know the cost per KWh for the batteries from Tesla? That's a used one and it's roughly $285/KWh. Signature Solar out of east Texas is making battery packs for solar energy storage at roughly $300/KWh, but obviously that's not installed in a car and they are not able to keep up with the massive demand for them.

As I've mentioned before Tesla interiors are sub-standard and the media center for Tesla has been trash for years. It has amazed me how each update has managed to make it worse. Tesla exteriors are very nice, but I think the main thing Tesla has that others don't is the supercharger network and the name recognition. For me the supercharger network is the main upside for Tesla because it gives owners freedom to have it be their only car and not just a city driving car. The car itself it nothing special technologically at this point...in my eyes.

 

Software much?

 

I look forward to getting a slick EV in my retirement, but the next 20 years I'm just gonna be hauling around a bunch of kids in a minivan.

 

I believe what many are missing is the other manufactures ability to scale. Even Tesla is having trouble scaling up and they have been working on this for a decade. The other manufactures are not going to have the ease to simply slip in BEV's into their ICE lineups. If Tesla dominates the global supply of batteries for the next decade, the other manufactures are going to have serious issues keeping up.

Those who are wanting Truck BEV's are going to be sorely disappointed when they find their range drop to a 1/3 the moment they try to tow the slightest of trailers. IMO, its way too early for trucks.

If you're disappointed in Tesla QC, wait until GM and Chrysler and Ford get into the game. There is a reason why Japanese and Korean vehicles dominate the market. Unfortunately Americans have a low standard when it comes to consumer goods and are more interested in flashy interiors and stylish exteriors.

 

1. I don’t think focus is all it will take to catch up to Tesla, batteries are not their expertise, electric motors are not their expertise, software is not their expertise. Legacy auto outsources the vast majority of their cars and the real only value add that they make is the engines, which are now going to be worthless. It’s like saying if Exxon can just focus on it they can make a search engine to compete with Google. Legacy auto is starting from scratch.

2. Tesla is one of the only EV makers using cylindrical 2170 cells(which allows it to be mass produced), with their own battery chemistry, while most others are using pouch cells. The reliability and longevity comes from the chemistry and form factor. Like, you can’t just say sure they can make them cost effectively and reliably like thats nothing, that’s everything for batteries!

Tesla’s cost per kWh is a proprietary secret but last third party estimates have them at around $100-120, which is by far industry leading. And their stated goal is to hit sub $50 kWh in the next few years. The new 4680 cell lines they are building right now for Austin and Berlin factory is a huge breakthrough and will cut cost by half going into production next year.

Their powerwalls are indeed overpriced because they have a 2 year backlog of people wanting them, they are still barely profitable on those, meanwhile the same cells could go into their cars and make 25% gross profit. They are battery cell starved and need all that they can get, so overcharge on the storage stuff.

3. Can’t argue about interior but shocked at how you feel about their media/infotainment center. Going from my BMW X5 to the model Y is like stepping from the 1990s to 2020 for infotainment and software.

4. Lowest cost, and declining, for equivalent if not better specs (driving and battery performance) is what sets it apart on the car side, and that’s all due to their cost advantage on batteries which will only widen with the new 4680s next year. On the software side, autopilot is far and away the best driver assist system on the market, and that’s included free of charge while most others have to pay extra. Meanwhile FSD beta is the most impressive self driving tech on the market, at scale, and that’s including waymo. To be fair that’s not currently available to the general public yet, only beta testers, but should roll out sometime this year, but cost an arm and leg.

I’m not sure which side Legacy auto is further behind, the batteries (they don’t make any) or the software/self driving stuff. (good luck competing vs Silicon Valley)

 

Wait until other manufacturers have to swap their profitable internal combustion lines for initially unprofitable (took Tesla 10 years) EV lines, all while dealing with a mountain of debt and 100s of $billions in pensions liabilities after being in bed with corrupt unions for years. This is termed the Innovator’s dilemma and why industries rise and fall and get disrupted in the first place.

 

meanwhile on the other side i got my guy trying to source me a navy blue F355 GTS. can't deal w/ these new cars

 

Wait till granny dusts you from a stop light in her dinky grocery-getter electric.

 

This is not wrong, 0-60 in a model Y is faster at a fraction of the price.

But not gonna lie, I would go for the f355 too.

 

and let's just hope granny's inside riding her lark from aisle to aisle while said electric spontaneously combusts in the parking lot

 

I haven't considered the innovators dilemma, but you're 100% spot on.

Too many people mistaken Tesla Fanboi's with those who are attempting to have an objective analysis of the market. If anything we have learned in the last year is how fragile Supply Chain Management has become. Personally I want to see multiple viable competitors in the market to help fuel innovation.

 

Like I was saying before VW has a real chance to become a Samsung like figure to the apple analogy, ironically due to the diesel gate stuff which forced their hand into electric way before the other legacy autos, even if it was kicking and screaming. So cheating on emissions may have saved and benefited them in the long run. Also the Chinese players will become legit competition in the future, mainly due to stealing Tesla’s IP and significant government backing. The Chinese gave Tesla the red carpet to go in to build up their supply chain there to help their entire domestic EV industry. Meanwhile in the US supposedly EV is some big talking point for the new administration but they can’t even bring themselves to say the name of the global dominant leader in EV that is based in the US just because it’s not an union shop. But I digress.

 

They can call me a fanboi all they want, but it isn’t like I’m coming up with this stuff now, I was saying the same things years ago in the investing thread when it was obvious to me then, and have bet accordingly and made generational wealth for my family. So fanboi or not you know what, I was fking right.

 

Yeah, I'd rather have the Ferrari. lol. There's just something too meh about driving an electric. That being said, I'm still wanting to buy one for daily use and driving... just need better range and interiors. As it stands, my next car may still be an ICE unless something else comes out that's electric and blows me away.

 

There’s always going to be a place for ICE for the visceral feel. Heck people still ride horses recreationally. But once full autonomous EVs come out in a few years riding in a car is just going to be an office space for work or couch for consuming entertainment. Maybe.

 

In my high school years, the hot rods swore they would never switch over from manual to automatic. ICE is a dinosaur much like Harleys are for redneck boomers. Some are afraid of change and will be left behind. Vehicles being a status symbol is beginning to fade. Society really doesn't care if you're holding the latest iPhone. Gen Z will change these ways.

 

lol. Harley makes electrics, too, for anyone that wants to toot around town. Status symbols will never change. They'll shift to something else. People are spending on luxuries more than ever in other countries because surprise... they're the new wealthy and middle class. Gen Z is spending more on crap nobody would've spent money on 10-20 years ago. Money just moves to something else.