What will it take to make you seriously consider an EV?

So I bought an ICE. I think of it both as a midlife crisis and a homage to the old rockets logo.

 

Start-up execs have convinced themselves they need to teach the market what they should want.

Batteries are energy storage devices, so they free us from the dispatchability problem of renewables. Being able to charge batteries frees us from the constraints of having electric generation that is synchronized in time to every kilowatt consumed. So the expansion of battery tech should actually push load factors marginally closer to 1, make demand more flexible, and incrementally reduce our reliance on gas and coal.

I also think it's ironic that you criticize batteries for their hidden environmental damage and then tout nuclear power like it has no environmental consequences of its own.

 

Imagine packing up the family in your new EV and heading off on a road trip to granny's for Christmas with a couple of charging stops required... How far away are we from that not being an absolute nightmare?

 

The Inflation Reduction Act passed the senate this past weekend and the House is scheduled to convene on Friday 8/12. Biden will likely sign it asap, so maybe as soon as Friday. There were no changes to the proposal released last week. So if you're in the process of buying an EV, it may significantly impact the EV credit.

The biggest changes would be to manufacturers that assemble their vehicles outside of North America. So this would include makers like BMW, KIA, Hyundai, and Polestar. As soon as Biden signs the bill, cars assembled outside of North America will immediately become ineligible for any EV credit unless you have a signed binding purchase agreement.

More information will be needed for the cars that are assembled in North America to determine how much credit they qualify for. There is a battery component requirement as well as a critical mineral source requirement. So it's still pretty much an unknown. My guess is that the vast majority of EVs will not qualify for all $7,500 tax credit next year. It's just not enough time for manufacturers to shift their supply chain.

Originally I was pretty disappointed by this ev credit law change, but it does make sense now that I've thought about it. This bill is not designed to quicken EV adoption. With the demand of EVs far outstripping supply, there is no need to make EVs cheaper to buyers. What this bill incentivizes is for companies to move their production and sourcing to the US or their close trade partners. I like this idea better than just cutting these companies fat checks for a pinky promise of bringing production to the US then have zero accountability. Just look at how telecom companies took billions from the government for broadband expansion just to build nothing with it.

 

I think there is lobbying going on to give manufacturers more runway to move their supply chains by moving out that date of disqualification by 12-18 months. Who knows if the lobbying will work. But I agree its a good mechanism to try to keep this industry on-shore.

 

A few things related to recent posts:

Modern society depends on yanking stuff out of the ground, cutting down trees, depleting soil, paving over habitat, and doing a bunch of stuff that is unpleasant and harmful. There is no perfect way for billions of people to live in nature, but there is "not as bad." EVs by any measure are better than ICE rigs. More efficient and less emissions even considering the manufacturing and source of electricity. If we're not going to rapidly transition to walkable communities, mass transit, and efficient regional/national train service then EVs it is.



Hey, I can post photos of bad things too! This oil depot in Cuba was struck by lightning on Friday, a third storage tank collapsed this morning, and Cuba has asked for international help with the incident. Initial reports are 121 injured and 17 firefighters missing. Folks who gleefully note the environmental issues with EVs, solar panels, wind power, and battery tech curiously seem to skip over the massive ongoing catastrophe and carbon intensive actions (Valdez, Deepwater Horizon, oil trains, refinery explosions, etc.) that are fossil fuel extraction, transport, and storage. That's just before it gets into our cars and throws more greenhouse gases out.



As to sources of electricity, you can't look at today's system and assume it will stay the same. We need a massive increase of two to three times our current global electricity production just to power the extra air conditioning we'll need by 2050. Our current system can't expand enough to support it and even if it was possible, increasing fossil fuel use to expand it is insanity. We need something different and that will be increasing efficiency in solar and wind among other options.

And really, ICE cars are disposable too. Yeah, the poors might drive one for 20-30 years, but 99.9% end up in the junkyard crusher to be--wait for it--recycled. How many 2000 Civics do you see riding around?

It may not show it in the video, but one of the appeals of the X Bus is that there is a tray under the bed that holds a series of small batteries. You can slide it out and replace one or more at anytime. There's also an optional battery tray under the backseat. Regardless of the interior comfort of a particular model, lots of innovation going on out there.

The idea is to not force people into EVs by 2030 but to quit selling ICE rigs by 2030. This is a goal that several other countries have set. Now, that means not just more EVs everywhere, but eventually we'll see a humongo amount of stranded assets--everything from rail cars and oil tankers to refineries and pipelines to service stations and transmission fluid manufacturers--that I'm sure the taxpayer will be expected to remove and clean up. It also means an increase in fossil fuel costs near-term as the current system depends on tremendous economies of scale across the board. When that scale starts to shrink, it will costs more to push stuff through the system and at some point, it will collapse upon itself. If you have an EV, you're ahead of that game and if you are wedded to gasoline because of some kind of odd nostalgia or political ideology, you'll be paying for it.

You can criticize EVs all you want, but if you're not also offering some solution to the climate crisis, it means nothing to me. We're in an era--an epoch--that will get worse before it stabilizes and there is so much that we cannot do quickly because of our existing systems. The IRA was an amazing accomplishment not because it is perfect--it's not--but because it is something substantial that made it through our existing systems of politics and government.

Get ready for change at a faster rate than ever before in human history--our option is whether we can control it some or just give up and react to the change. Either way, this is not the world you or I think it is and it will be even more different tomorrow.

 

Christmas and Thanksgiving travel are already a nightmare. If Buc-ees was smart, they'd be building out tons of charging stations. Captured audiences for 30 minutes or so that will buy a bunch of stuff.

 

Irony is... ironic :

Billionaires are funding a massive treasure hunt in Greenland as ice vanishes

 

Now if we can get all 60 people to agree to leave the same place at the same time and arrive at the same destination. This is an efficiency problem that can be solved.

 

You do realize public transportation is not a novel concept right?
It's used by billions already.

But you continue your path to arm every single human with a car and see how that goes...we will revisit Houston traffic in 10 years and see..

If anything it would help you personally to take some of the people in these beat up paper plates cars off the road so you can drive your tesla at 60mph...

 

But I also said this is an efficiency problem that can be solved. A bus system only is not going to work in Houston where people refuse to walk more than a couple hundred meters in the middle of summer.

 

I think having the wheels stay on is a feature I'd be interested in

Toyota Offers to Buy Back bZ4X EVs with Wheels That Might Fall Off

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a40827514/toyota-bz4x-wheel-problem-buyback/

 

And everywhere there are busses and trains...just ideal 70 deg weather?

We can't use weather as an excuse. It's hot in a lot of places...

 

I was joking about this with some friends back when BMW said they were offering heated seats as a subscription option that Toyota having the wheels stay on would also be a similar option.

Like I said... be careful out there being an early-adopter. lol.

 

And what a stupid name for a car and to make it worse....mixed case..

I didnt expect that from toyota..well neither did I expect for them to make cars where the freaking wheels fall off. did they forget how to make cars?

 

These are challenging times.

What? Isn't it plain to see that "BZ4X" stands for beyond zero utility vehicle (designation "4") crossover? smh.
Every time I see the name BZ4X, I think of the Mercury Merkur XR4TI from the 80s. I can't believe I wanted that car back in the day and thought it was cool.

 

I thought it was Busy Forks.

 

What is an example of a city that does your ideal transportation model well?