What will it take to make you seriously consider an EV?

Even cheaper than h1b visas....

 

You can't haul nothin' with a cold transmission...any physictitian should know this.

 

Not disputing. But never hauling. And the issue is definitely quaint. We must embrace obsolescence, a great word.

 

How is it "quaint"?

 

That's Waymo cheaper than the money pit GM dumped into the Cruise

 

Hm, I like the word. Nostalgia infused. But yeah, once upon a time, many or even most people would need to figure out how to haul something, with a mule, a tractor or a truck if they could find one. Most people (myself almost but not totally included) would have no clue now-a-days.

So most people don't have to worry about the temperature of the transmission fluid. Feels very 20th century to me, kind of like books.

 

Competition is dead.

US Sales, 2024.

General Motors: 2.7 million vehicles (+4.3%)
Toyota: 2.33 million vehicles (+3.7%)
Ford: 2.05 million vehicles (4.2%)
Honda: 1.29 million vehicles (+11%)
Hyundai/Kia: 1.78 million vehicles (+3.4%)
BMW: 371,346 vehicles (+2.5%)

Tesla: 624,254 (est) -5%

 

Oh yeah...don't get me started on how much books piss me off!

 

The refresh - remake for the Model Y is called (nicknamed?) Juniper and it is starting to be revealed in Asia with a rollout across the rest of the world in the near future.

Perhaps - probably there won't be enough Junipers available in the first Quarter to show how it will impact sales for Tesla. Some potential buyers that were considering a Model Y might hold off on buying for a few more months so that they can get a Juniper version instead. So Tesla sales for the First Quarter of 2025 could be soft with Tesla hoping for a bounce back in sales in the Second Quarter of 2025.

 

Traditional automakers are running out of road, caught between two forces that are reshaping the industry: Chinese electric-vehicle makers upending once-profitable markets and the capital demands of the electric transition. More consolidation looms.

The potential tie-up between Honda Motor and Nissan Motor -- helmed by CEOs Toshihiro Mibe and Makoto Uchida, respectively -- is just the latest signal of this trend. The two Japanese giants have announced a plan to merge in 2026, creating the third-largest automaker in the world. But instead of being a show of strength, the combination more reflects the grim reality that traditional automakers are facing.

For one, China looms large in the decision. Nissan has been struggling to adapt to the new industry landscape in the country, which was once a profit paradise for global automakers. In the six months ended in September, it sold 339,000 cars in China, less than half of the level for the same period in 2018.

And Nissan isn't alone. Volkswagen, long the most popular car brand in China, sold around a quarter fewer cars in China over the same period. Its long-held position as the top-selling brand in the country has been overtaken by Chinese EV-maker BYD.

Chinese EV makers have turned their home market into a brutally competitive battleground. Foreign brands used to have more than half of the Chinese market, but that has dropped to around 30%, according to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers via Wind. In recent months, more than half of the passenger cars sold in the country were new-energy vehicles, which includes plug-in hybrids, according to the China Passenger Car Association.

Even luxury brands aren't immune. Carmaker Porsche's deliveries in China dropped 29% from a year earlier in the first nine months of 2024. German luxury cars used to be status symbols for China's nouveau riche, but new Chinese EVs, equipped with cutting-edge technology, have started to upset them.

Meanwhile, overcapacity in Chinese autos threatens to flood the global market with cheap exports. The Wall Street Journal reports that carmakers in China last year used only about half their capacity.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
01-13-25 0530ET
Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

 

I have read about US stock analysts thinking that GM and Ford might have to consider exiting the Chinese market because good profits are hard to come by because of it being such a competitive environment.


Telsa will hang around for a while, but I wonder if the competitive environment there will limit profits and/or sales in China.

Decades ago, Japanese autos imported to the US had a blah reputation. As the Japanese automakers improved, there was messaging about Americans needing to buy US autos for various reasons such as Support the Home Team.

I wonder if something similar will eventually happen in China with their consumers being urged to Support the Home Team instead of buying foreign such as Tesla. Last Summer, Tesla wanted some type of exception to increased tariffs by Canada on EV built in China. Canada didn't grant Tesla that exception.

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Canada to impose 100% tariff on Chinese EVs, including Teslas

OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada, following the lead of the United States and European Union, said on Monday it will impose a 100% tariff on imports of Chinese electric vehicles and announced a 25% tariff on imported steel and aluminum from China.

The duties apply to all EVs shipped from China, which would include those made by Tesla, a Canadian government official said...

...Canadian imports of automobiles from China to its largest port, Vancouver, jumped 460% year over year to 44,356 in 2023, when Tesla started shipping Shanghai-made EVs to Canada.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Ottawa was acting to counter what he called China's intentional, state-directed policy of over-capacity. "I think we all know that China is not playing by the same rules," he told reporters. The tariffs will be imposed starting Oct. 1.

"What is important about this is we're doing it in alignment and in parallel with other economies around the world," Trudeau said on the sidelines of a three-day closed-door cabinet meeting in Halifax, Nova Scotia.

The Chinese embassy in Canada called the move "protectionist" and a "politically dominant act", adding that Canada has ignored World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules.

Canada's action will undermine normal economic and trade cooperation between the two countries and hurt Canadian consumers and enterprises, a spokesperson for the embassy said in a statement released late Monday.

"The Canadian government insisted on announcing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles in disregard of China's repeated objections and solemn representations," the spokesperson said.

"China urges Canada to respect objective facts, abide by WTO rules, immediately correct its erroneous practices, and refrain from politicizing economic and trade issues."

China is Canada's second-largest trading partner, although it trails far behind the United States.

Tesla does not disclose its Chinese exports to Canada. However, vehicle identification codes showed that the Model 3 compact sedan and Model Y crossover models were being exported from Shanghai to Canada.

"It is a 100% surtax on all Chinese-made EVs. If companies currently making vehicles in China choose to move their production to a different country, they would no longer be captured by this tariff," the government official said.

**********

I realize that Tesla should have a much lower cost of production for a vehicle made in China versus one made in the US, but it also raises the question about if competitive pressures in the Chinese market will have Tesla with excess production in China and a need to export quite a few vehicles from China because of the Chinese consumer Supporting the Home Team versus buying Tesla.

 

Top 10 Best-Selling EVs in 2024
Tesla Model Y
Tesla Model 3
Ford Mustang Mach-E
Hyundai Ioniq 5
Telsa Cybertruck
Ford F-150 Lightning
Honda Prologue
Chevrolet Equinox
Cadillac Lyriq
Rivian R1S

EVs made up 8.7% of all new cars sold in 2024.

https://www.kbb.com/car-news/america-set-ev-sales-record-in-2024/

 

Even though the lead part of this writeup is about Apple selling Cell Phones in China, it could also be illustrative of what Tesla and other foreign manufacturers are facing in the Chinese market.

• Replace Apple with Tesla
• Replace Vivo with BYD
• Replace Huawei with Geely

Then reread the first part of the writeup.

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Apple has worst day since August following reports of China, AI struggles

Apple stock closed down 4% on Thursday, its worst day since Aug. 5, following several reports of lackluster iPhone sales in China.

The iPhone maker’s stock price is down nearly 12% from its most recent peak in December, and it’s the worst-performing of the seven largest technology stocks so far in 2025.

The slide comes after a report Thursday from Canalys, a market research firm, which suggested that Apple had fallen to third place in terms of smartphones sold in China in 2024, behind homegrown manufacturers Vivo and Huawei.

Apple shipped 15% of the 284 million phones sold in China last year, according to the report, but that was down 17% on an annual basis. Vivo and Huawei, meanwhile, saw strong growth.

TSMC, a key Apple supplier, on Thursday reported a smartphone sales forecast for the first quarter that suggested a nearly 6% sequential drop. TSMC, which makes the chips at the heart of Apple’s devices, attributed the drop to seasonality. TSMC said AI chips comprised over half of its revenue in the fourth quarter, displacing smartphones, which had been its largest business.

Notable Apple supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo on Monday wrote that he expects iPhone shipments to decline 6% on an annual basis in the first half of 2025, with most of the decline happening in the second quarter. Kuo wrote that he believes Apple Intelligence, the company’s artificial intelligence system that is not yet available in China, isn’t boosting iPhone demand.

“There is no evidence of Apple Intelligence’s ability to benefit hardware replacement cycles or service business,” Kuo wrote.


Apple reports its December quarter results on Jan. 30.

 

China’s BYD launches world’s largest car carrier with 9,200 vehicle capacity

Chinese automotive company BYD Auto has unveiled that world's largest vehicle carrier which can ferry up to 9,200 cars over water. The vessel, dubbed 'BYD Shenzhen', has been named after the town in which the company is headquartered. It recently officially undocked from Yangzhou port, located northwest of Shanghai.

The 'BYD Shenzhen' measures 219 meters long and 37.7 meters wide, with a maximum speed of 18.5 knots (21.3 mi/h) and a draft of 9 meters. The vessel underscores the EV giant’s aggressive overseas expansion as it builds on last year's sales surge to target greater global market share in 2025.

Fourth ro-ro ship in one year
The newest ship is designed with environmental sustainability at its core. It features LNG dual-fuel technology, enabling it to run on both LNG and traditional marine fuel. Additionally, the ship is equipped with energy-saving devices and BYD box stationary storage batteries, which likely power the vessel during docking or in low-emission zones, further cutting fuel consumption and emissions.

The BYD Shenzhen, BYD’s fourth ro-ro (roll-on/roll-off) ship, and is ready to set sail, according to a report from China News Service. Since 2024, BYD has launched four ro-ro ships as part of its global expansion into overseas markets. The first vessel, the BYD Explorer No 1, debuted in January 2024 and has already completed multiple trips to Europe, including Spain and Germany, as well as docking in Brazil, Electrek reported.

BYD's second vessel, the BYD Changzhou, entered operation in early December 2024, followed by the BYD Hefei, which set sail last week. Both ships, along with the BYD Explorer No 1, can transport up to 7,000 vehicles. The BYD Hefei embarked last week carrying 5,000 NEVs, with BYD stating that the ship will accelerate the global expansion of China's new energy vehicles.

BYD boosts global presence
Furthermore, BYD has already expanded to 100 countries and regions worldwide, positioning itself for even more growth in 2025. After producing over 1.77 million vehicles last year, BYD surpassed Tesla by about 4,500 units to become the world’s largest EV maker. Meanwhile, Tesla delivered slightly more fully electric vehicles, with 1.78 million in 2024, compared to BYD’s 1.76 million.

With an influx of new rivals in China, BYD is aggressively expanding into new overseas markets. After entering Japan in 2023, a market dominated by domestic automakers, BYD surpassed Toyota in EV sales in 2024.

This week, BYD launched its first EV in South Korea, priced just over $20,000, marking its challenge to Hyundai and other local players on their home turf, Electrek noted. The company also aims to reinforce its presence in the South Korean market with the upcoming launches of the Seal sedan and Sealion 07 SUV later this year.

Additionally, in Thailand, Japanese automakers have seen their market share drop from 90% to 76% over the past two years as BYD continues to expand its presence.

 

Car software as a service. Best idea evar.

https://www.edmunds.com/car-news/do-not-buy-a-new-fisker-ocean.html

• To clear out old inventory, Fisker is dramatically reducing the price of the 2023 Ocean electric SUV.
• Shoppers will surely be drawn in by the promise of a brand-new $25,000 long-range EV.
• As owners of a Fisker Ocean, Edmunds attests that the current software is less buggy than previous iterations.
• However, with the car currently in an incomplete state and Fisker's future uncertain, Edmunds recommends that you do not buy the Ocean, with caveats.

 

I was in Mexico City last weekend....and there were a ton of BYD cars.

Got a few uber rides in them....because they are being used as "Uber Black".
Not bad!!

 

Whether it is EV Auto Tech, Cell Phone Tech or just Tech in general, China isn't going to give up and settle for being an Also Ran.


__________
Nasdaq drops 3% as China's AI push rattles Big Tech

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hit over one-week lows on Monday, as the surging popularity of a low-cost Chinese artificial intelligence model knocked shares of chipmaker Nvidia and other companies benefiting from investments into the technology.

Chinese startup DeepSeek has rolled out a free assistant it says uses cheaper chips and less data, seemingly challenging a widespread bet in financial markets that AI will drive demand along a supply chain from chipmakers to data centers.

DeepSeek's AI Assistant on Monday overtook rival ChatGPT to become the top-rated free application available on Apple's App Store in the United States.

Investors are likely to question whether DeepSeek's developments have the potential to really disrupt the industry, said Adam Sarhan, CEO of 50 Park Investments.

"If it is something that can, then we have a situation where all these AI stocks and the market as a whole will be re-priced."

Nvidia, whose chips are the top choice for powering AI applications, dropped 11.7%, while a gauge of semiconductor stocks dropped 6.5%.

Eight of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were in the red, with technology stocks leading declines with a 4.5% fall.

Microsoft, Meta Platforms and Google-parent Alphabet fell between 2.2% and 3.5%, while AI server makers Dell Technologies and Super Micro Computer slid 7.2% and 8.9%.
__________

China’s IT Boom Slows: Computer Science Popularity in University Plunges Amid Shrinking Job Market

Massive Graduate Output: In 2023 alone, China saw more than 400,000 Computer Science related university graduates. In 2024, the number could only have grown bigger, currently estimated at 450,000.
__________

China is Fast Outpacing U.S. STEM PhD Growth (August 2021)
This paper compares the STEM PhD pipelines of the United States and China. We find that China has consistently produced more STEM doctorates than the United States since the mid-2000s, and that the gap between the two countries will likely grow wider in the next five years. Based on current enrollment patterns, we project that by 2025 Chinese universities will produce more than 77,000 STEM PhD graduates per year compared to approximately 40,000 in the United States. If international students are excluded from the U.S. count, Chinese STEM PhD graduates would outnumber their U.S. counterparts more than three-to-one.

 

Lucid Gravity: Combining 450 miles EPA Range, 400 kW Fast Charging, and Access to 20,000+ Superchargers

"Lucid Gravity offers next-level fast charging speeds and seamless access to the top charging networks including Tesla Superchargers and Electrify America," said Emad Dlala, VP of Powertrain at Lucid. "To enable this experience for our customers, we developed new, unique technology to allow the 926V Lucid Gravity to charge seamlessly at up to 400 kW on 1000V charging equipment and at sustained speeds of up to 225 kW on 500V architecture fast chargers, including Tesla V3 Superchargers."

To enable this superlative charging performance, Lucid developed and patented an innovative technology employing its proprietary rear motor drive unit to boost the charging voltage of 500V to match the 926V of the Lucid battery pack. At peak charging rates, the Lucid Gravity sustains a robust charging curve, adding 200 miles in less than 12 minutes.


Lucid Gravity is capable of bi-directional charging, supporting up to 80 A at 19.2 kW with the NACS charge port. RangeXchange, first available on Lucid Air, also enables charging another electric vehicle directly via the NACS connector with an optional RangeXchange cable.


Lucid Gravity became the first non-Tesla to be sold with a NACS charge port. On the Lucid Gravity, this charge port is located on the rear driver's side of the vehicle for easy access to V3 and V4 Tesla Superchargers

https://ir.lucidmotors.com/news-rel...ning-450-miles-epa-range-400-kw-fast-charging