What will it take to make you seriously consider an EV?

Still not buying EV, things have to get much, much better to consider. For starters, I don't want a vehicle where the maker can make any changes they feel like it remotely (looking at you Tesla). Once it's in my hands, I only want the auto maker involved when I need warranty work done, otherwise, don't be changing my speed, distance range, etc. when you feel like it. I don't want an Apple Ipad on wheels and as long as this is possible I would not buy one under any circumstances.

Also, the network has to get much better, the range I can drive on a single charge needs to get better, and the battery has to last several hundred thousands of miles to even consider, or make batteries cheap to replace. I know they are working on all these factors, I've seen news about prototypes and what the government is doing but I ain't buying one until all of it is in place.

And of course, ain't buying one period as long as the automaker continues to abuse their power remotely, no matter how cheap the EV.

 

you'll need a converted ev for what you want.

 

As a comparison: 2 million Ford/Chevy/GMC/Dodge/Toyota full size trucks were sold last year in America (**** yeah?)

 

Tesla Dominates EV Charging Race Installing 6,000 Fast Chargers In 2023, ChargePoint And EVgo Struggle To Keep Up: Report
https://www.benzinga.com/markets/eq...ast-chargers-in-2023-chargepoint-and-evgo-str

one of the reasons I got the BMW was because of the charging agreement with TSLA.
VW/Porsche/Audi can't seem to get their act together and get on the supercharger network.

 

Better get yourself a horse and carriage. This is the direction the industry is headed for both EV's and legacy. Integrated OS's will be the future and these clunky infotainment centers will be a thing of the past. Android and Apple carplay are a mediocre patch.

And it will be the government who pushes this. They will have the capability to shut down your vehicle anytime they want.

I am a little confused by this statement. You expect EV's to last over half a million miles (which is 30-40 year life span) and if it doesn't, you will instead opt for ~250k ICE?

 

1. Ford F-Series (750,789 units sold)
2. Chevy Silverado (543,319 units sold)
3. Ram Pickup (444,926 units sold)

insane how many trucks are being bought! it's the american family sedan.

 

Yeah, I bet our gas horse and carriage will be superior in all listed factors for at least 10 years, and gas will probably still be dominant after that. Short of draconian government measures or extreme changes in the listed factors EVs will remain growing but still the minority market, meaning capitalism will cause for gas vehicles to still dominate for at least 10 years. We'll see how things look in 10 years and reassess how things are looking then.

Regarding the battery life. Yes. I want it to last like a good motor, at least 250k to 300k ( well maintained, of course). Nothing less will do, or you are just accepting an inferior product. Here is what they are working on, because to get the market to buying EVs this is an important factor.
https://www.pcmag.com/news/no-more-ev-battery-replacements-vws-solid-state-cell-holds-up-for-300k

 

No doubt fossil fueled driven vehicles will remain dominant for the next 10 years. 2035 has always been a target. only in the last couple years has charging stations been a focal point. Its taken 2 years for the industry to settle on a charging port, with legacy pushing an inferior product in attempts to shut out competition.
Electric generation is rarely being talked about. This will continue to be a problem over the next 10 years. The current grid is not ready to handle the EV revolution.

If 250k is 'several hundred thousand' miles, then sure. Some of the early versions are coming in at 500k+ miles. I am sure you can dramatically drop that number to support your point if you wish to include legacy's pathetic attempt of throwing a battery on an ICE chassis and call it an EV. Legacy is just now understanding that the whole vehicle needs to be built from the ground up. I give them 3 to 4 years before they catch up to Tesla, Rivian, Lucid and BYD. Meanwhile, they can keep those truck sales up to stay alive.

 

The headline of the thread is what it will take to get an EV. It implies in the near future. I listed my factors and you seem upset. If the headline said what it will take after the year 2035 then you would have a point, but it doesn't.

 

look at the price drop on the Taycan with some miles. 1 owner coming off a 3 year lease and we are 50% retail value.

2020 Porsche Taycan 4S
J9K Performance Battery Plus (93.4 kWh)
Price: $124,190.00


$63,999
https://www.porschewesthouston.com/...-Houston-ea1d9bcb0a0e0832515c783fad2c9b66.htm

 

I'm looking for a Cross Turismo Turbo S in black

 

That's a fair point and unsettling. That said, it's the way the world works now. Everything connected all the time.

Also, the inverse scenario also exists (and is likely the far more common scenario). How many times has Tesla deployed a patch that extends the range or adds safety features? That scenario would rarely, if ever, get any headlines.

Fair. But apparently Tesla can calculate your range and tell you every stations nearby so apparently Tesla owners aren't too worried about the network. My dad just bought one last year and finding stations is a non-event. It's handled digitally.

Apparently, this anxiety about range is an edge case, at best. How many times do you need to drive 200+ miles at a time? If it's more than 5x a year then EV is simply not for you. Apparently, nearly 95% of all trips in America are under 200 miles so for nearly everybody, range simply isn't a factor. It's an emotional concern, not an everyday issue ...or even a monthly issue ...maybe not even an annual issue.

When we buy a new gas car, we are given the MPG efficiency rating. Has anybody ever done an analysis if gas powered cars lose efficiency? I'd like to see an apples/apples comparison before knocking EVs for this. It's simply easier to calculate battery life over MPG but that doesn't mean gas powered cars don't also suffer the same fate.

Ding. Apparently batteries are like 20k to replace right now. That is absurd. Plus my concern is how do we recycle batteries and procure new materials. I guess there simply isn't enough lithium to keep up with demand.

I'm waiting for EV cause I want to understand the longevity and maintenance issues, in general. Where are the gotchas that pop-up like 5-10 years later? My SUV is coming up on 10 years and (knock wood) is going strong. Would that be the case for an EV? Unknown.

That said, the sheer engineering of EVs suggests they should last LONGER than combustion engines given that they have few moving parts that don't rely on explosions for compulsion. In theory, EVs should last longer. We'll see. Like you, I'm waiting a few more years but for different reasons.

 

Fair reply with great points on the current state of EVs.

 

Range anxiety is probably a much bigger issue than you realize. This will be fixed with more charging stations, naturally. Long range drivers like the idea of the fuel savings but can't adopt due to the lack of charging stations. Currently those with serious range anxiety are not adopting.

There are already battery recycling centers. This was started early on.
Battery production is not a serious issue at this point. Lithium is a very abundant resource. There are already several battery manufacturing plants in the US and this will continue to ramp up.

As I stated before, electricity generation will become a big problem during peak demand or during shortages. I am concerned with areas that frequently get hit with frequent polar vortex's.

 

Americans buy for the extremes.
"the one time I need to drive from Houston to Montana, how am I gonna do it in an EV???"
when was the last time you did that? oh, I am asking if I need to...

If you live in Houston, there are good EV options that can each SA, Austin, Dallas without stopping...
200 mile range, not enough IMO but 300....works for most people.

My dad likes SUVs because he wants to make sure there's enough space for his luggage when he picks someone up from the airport. He does that once every 20 years it seems like...just buying based on extreme use cases.
Or he wants a truck to bring mulch from HD or go fish twice a year.

MPG efficiency on gas engines is an interesting point but from my observation (and I maintain my cars well)...I don't see a diff. I am still seeing the same 22 mpg on my car that has 250K miles. But if you don't keep with maintenance (say injectors are dirty, or air filters are clogged...) then it can drop.

My concern is not just with EV batteries, it's the software. Will it feel like using windows XP right now? Dated looking. What looks cool now is going to look outdated in 10 years..especially when the ONLY thing that's inside is a damn giant screen.
So ironically what's meant to save the earth ends up back in landfills because people want the shiny new object...

What's the used car market going to look like for EVs? Will anyone want to touch a 10 year old Tesla?

 

Range anxiety is a massive issue. My point is that it is largely unfounded. It's an emotional issue not tied to reality for 95% of Americans. If you happen to be one of the few people that regularly makes trips longer than 200 miles, then EV is simply not for you right now. But again, this is an edge case as the data clearly indicates very few people actually need that kind of range. People like having the flexibility to drive that far, even if they rarely ever actually do.

Apparently only 5% of EV batteries are actually recycled because it's very costly. Currently, new EVs is far outpacing recycling efforts.

These companies are solving the EV battery recycling problem | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)

Conceded. Heard previously that lithium mining was a problem but apparently lithium prices have gone down 45% due to oversupply.

Truth. The best solution, individually, is to introduce your own solar/battery at your home. $$$. Governments should be adding incentives for homeowners to do so.

At grid scale, governments should also begin adding grid scale batteries to capture grid solar/wind projects. Apparently, Tesla has already installed one in South Houston somewhere. Source, my buddy that works for Centerpoint. Tesla has already done this in Australia.

 

I know it is super early stages of research, but you can possibly replace lithium with sodium if we want to talk about EV batteries long-term (and there's definitely plenty of sodium out there...from all the fanboy tears). Guess you have solid state batteries and whatnot too. A good chunk of that research might not result in anything, but I'm guessing some of it might (possibly with compromises/hybrid solutions), and that could alleviate some of the concerns about current battery technologies.




Can't remember if I already said something in this thread, but I got a Volt in 2012. Probably would have replaced it with a full EV by now, but it is still running fine (and still *mostly* using the battery). Might just have to do it anyway since I need more a family vehicle. But yeah, I was on the EV bandwagon long ago.

 

it will end up the plastic situation.
cheaper to produce new than recycle so no one bothers.

 

Probably right. But it would be nice if replacement batteries don't cost 50% of the cost of a new car. Meanwhile, we throw the old battery into a dump.

It'll probably require Federal intervention to incentivize automakers to factor in the cost of recycling somehow. This way they can level the playing field for all automakers and we aren't left with an obvious and inevitable downstream problem, such as massive oceanic blooms of plastic bags. But whatever. We'll kick that can down the road and leave that problem for our kids.