Just wondering why you think we'll get 30+minutes of efficient play out of a player who's plays is trending downwards and has made a career out of being inefficient offensively and isn't going to contribute much on defense at all ?!
Until we see him play with the Rockets I'm choosing to believe in the most optimistic outcome. I do the same thing with my annual 82-0 regular season projection and my annual 16-0 playoffs projection.
PER has always been a bit of a junk stat in my eyes, it really rewards volume regardless of efficiency. We don't need a 20 PER player on the team with Chris and James here. I think he puts up better PER-influencing stats than last year, but less than any year in NY or Denver. Say...15.5-ish.
I'm thinking the numbers will be similar. One thing I do expect , despite his career numbers is better 3 point percentage because of the type of shots we expect him to get - corner 3's and open shots from the wing. Ariza's worst year with the Rockets was 34.4% …. and that is better than all but One season in his career outside of Houston. Melo's a better shooter , I expect him to shoot better from those same type of shots. 36-37%.
Call me a CP3 fanboy, but I do believe he brings out the best in players. I think Melo has a bounce back career, but due to a lesser role is a bit down from where he was 4 seasons ago. Still see him having a per above 18.
Capela's PER/48 minutes was 124th best all time. One spot ahead of Lebron's season from two years ago. Chris Paul was 58th and Harden was 19th all time. There is a reason why the Rockets tied for 20th all time in most wins in a season. They had 3 great players.
