The problem with speculating about future technologies or possiblities tells you little about which companies will reap the market gains and ultimately be successful. For those that dream of owning Microsoft or other successful stocks early realize for every Microsoft, there are dozens that failed. An Example. In 1980 (I believe) the PC market was booming. The best performing stocks were Atari and Commodore. Stay invested in quality companies and include mutual funds that can diversify you into more aggressive sectors if you wish to invest in those areas.
The PC business didn't technically start booming until IBM (PC and PC Jr.) and Apple (//e, //c, and Macintosh) entered the fray in the early to mid 80's. Atari made PC's but were really known for their gaming machines. Commodore was the entry level guy that competed against Apple's PC's. I agree with you, though - you can identify 5 companies, and maybe only 2 of them will be successful in the long-run. But also consider that the long-run is 10-20 years for this industry and most people seem to trade as if the long-run is 1-2 years.
I saw that 60 Minutes (or some show) special on Google, and how Google was wanting to do this - a handheld appliance you could take to a grocery store, scan the serial code of a product and you get all the places within an X mile radius that has this in stock and the price.
The best prices are on the Internet. Seriously, Google, I believe, is already testing a mobile search engine technology that will allow you to find restaurants, movies, etc. by running a search on your PDA or cell phone (can't remember which). The best prices isn't that huge a step simply because there are price search engines online - the problem is that most price search engines don't search B&M's for prices, but rather online retailers. You'd have to get the big boys like WalMart, Sears, etc. to play along to make it useful.
Watching analysts on MSNBC a while back, it seems XM might be the better bet. They actually are becoming profitable, while several of the contracts Sirus gotten into (Howard Stern for example) is raising a lot of concerns especially since XM seem to have better market share. Also, XM is a lot more commercially appealing then Sirus and have better corporate backing.
For you investors out there, what is your opinion on how to mix up your 401k? For example, for a while I had been playing it safe and almost 30% of my money was tied up in money market, and more in bonds and other low risk investments. I only earned 6.75% over the past year though, so I recently switched things around and I'm now about 80% stocks, does that sound about right? I'm only 25, so I've got quite a few years until retirement. And are some people really that good that they can predict the next stock that is going to take off? Seems like that would be a tough job, finding the diamonds in the rough before everyone else does.
How much after your deduct your income taxes and management fees? Now what rate are your paying on your credit card debt and car loans? You may actually have earned a little above your debt rate in 2004 but 2004 was a very good year for equities. You can't guarantee that you will earn that much this year but you can absolutely guarantee your debt rate in 2005 will still be high.
You should be 80% stocks, 10% bonds, 10% money market. your funds should be agg. growth, and growth and income.
By the way I'm not talking about 401K's. Company matching funds is like getting free money. Also, they reduce your pre-tax income taxes and appreciate so they fit my rule.
I think you can if you do enough research. For example, some co-workers and I were sitting around talking about buying XM when it was around $9/share about a year or two ago. Of course we didn't because we didn't think that many people would pay for their radio broadcasts... Instead of just looking at individual stocks, you can also look at industries that you think may take off, or areas of the world, etc. Then you could buy a mutual fund that taps into those industries or regions. It's all legalized gambling if you ask me... lol.
Here's something else look at : Samsung makes LCD monitors Philips makes LCD monitors Viewsonic makes LCD monitors Sony makes LCD monitors Toshiba makes LCD tv's LG makes LCD Tv's etc. etc. Which stock should you buy now that LCD's are everywhere? I don't know but the first thing I'd find out is who makes the LCD's for those monitors, if they have competition, and how strong their marketshare is. Chances are none of those companies makes the actual LCD's for the monitors but rather gets some other company to make it for them. I honestly haven't researched this - just throwing it out as food for thought.
As usual with me and the FFB, I think he is nuts, over simplified at best. Why would anyone want to go agressively long in an enviroment of a hemoraging deficit, rising interest rates, the backside of a housing bubble, a flattening yield curve, a huge trade deficit and a increasingly tight and vulnerable energy supply? But that's what makes the markets go round.
All I can say is that over the last 7 years I've got diddly squat to show for my investments. I 've gotten maybe like 5%. And for about 3 years I think all I saw was negative this and negative that. It was absurd.
Sony has their fingers in just about every pie you can think of... cameras, music, movies, PDA's, game consoles... I can go on all day late to the party with MP3 players (I have a Sony mini-disk player, I think I'm the only person on Earth with one... terrible software) they might have a homerun with the PSP, and they will be giving out details on the much anticipated Cell processor that will power the next Playstation, among other things all this rambling is basically to say, Sony is so large that even if they dominate the DLP market, it's likely to make only a small dent in their stock
I'm generally bullish, with a realistic perspective. Nothing has ever outperformed the market, long term. It may sound oversimplified, but people need to learn to keep it simple. Dollar cost averaging helps, also. Put the money in and ignore it for a couple of decades.
QUOTE]Originally posted by The Real Shady At around $6.00 a share I would buy Sirus Satallite radio stock because I think it's going to be just like cable tv.[/QUOTE] I owned a couple thousand shares of SIRI back when it was in the 60 cent range, but sold after making a couple hundred bucks. I never understood how a friggin donut stock was $50/share. Pure hype IMO. I still think it's overvalued.
I pay a 1% fee on my account for the entire year...or .025% each quarter. The funds my guy has me in are all in the top 5 for performance over the last 10-20 years and all have the same managers in place. I only have to pay taxes when or if I cash the Mutual funds in, and then only capital gains or 15%. The reason the markets are doing ok in a tumultous market is that all the 401k plans keep investing each and every day. DD
