What is the correlation when factoring in home vs. road games. Also, add additional columns for time during the season (i.e. 1st 20 games, 2nd 20 games etc..). Wins - Loss - home - road - 1st 20 games - 2nd 20 games - 3rd 20 games - 4th 22 games, Night, Day etc... This will help focus on Rafer woes in variety of categories
SAS is used in industries mostly, cuz the government rules and file format issues; R is open source freeware more used in school and research settings; basically if you just want to do basic stats, get R it's free; people use SAS because we have to; i use SAS at school and work every single day; while i used R along with SAS in school pretty much everyday; you can't afford SAS legit
What the stats say about Rafer: He really hates mondays. He shoots 28.8% on mondays. 34.3% on tuesdays 41.3% on wednesdays 41.2% on thursdays 38.5% on fridays 36.8% on saturdays and 37.0% on sundays. Let's hope we don't get too many monday-night playoff games.
The difference in percentage b/w wins and losses is not statistically significant. Since you're a stats guy, I'm going to geek out on the analysis: the expected standard deviation for 337 shots is sqrt(p*(1-p)/337), where p is his shooting percentage in wins. Using p = 0.39, you get a standard deviation of 0.027. So his shooting percentage in losses is just about 1 standard deviation lower, which isn't meaningful. The 3pt shooting percentage is the same, about 1 std deviation lower. The confidence level of his being a worse shooter in losses is ~ 60%, not that meaningful. I'm not denying Rafer is a bad shooter. I believe that, but it's jumping the gun to say that he HAS to shoot well for us to win. We have won many games in spite of his bad shooting (and with the benefit of his defense and low TOs).
Stuff like this could go in its own thread. Right now, it may get buried in more responses about stats. lol.
Simplify, simplify, simplify. In games where Rafer shoots 40% or less from the field, we are 25-19. In games where Rafer shoots over 40% from the field, we are 18-6. In games where Rafer shoots 50% or better from the field, we are 12-2. In games where Rafer shoots 40% or less from the field and 35% or less from the three point line, we are barely .500 at 14-12. In games where Rafer shoots over 40% from the field and over 35% from the three point line, we are 29-13, a .690 winning percentage. It's not too difficult to see that if Rafer was shooting 40% from the field, we would have the very same record as San Antonio, and that is with Yao missing a huge stretch of games. Rafer's poor midrange shooting and lack of ability to finish at the rim, and this team's offense centered around McGrady as the primary distributor will be our undoing in the playoffs. Sorry, but it's pretty obvious.
you can do the same for every player on the team... if yao shots 60%, 20-5 if yao shots 50%, 15-5 if yao shots below 50%, 10-5 do the same for t-mac... rafer is not the only factor in rox win/lose...
Lenovo stats basically tells you how good the backup for a player is compared to the player. So in this case, Lenovo basically tells you how bad Luther, John Lucas, and Vspan are relative to Alston. Note that it does NOT say anything about how good Alston is relative to his PG peers.
Not so fast there. In games where McGrady shoots 40% or less, we are 16-9, which is the team's overall winning percentage. Our wins do not go down if McGrady has a bad shooting night, because he does so many other things well. Obviously, Yao and McGrady being in the lineup is the biggest factor to our success. That's a given that I think we all can agree upon. Now, what is the next biggest factor to our success? I don't know but I suspect it could be how Rafer shoots. In the games where Yao and McGrady both played, our record is 22-8, a winning percentage of .733. In the games where Yao and McGrady both played and Rafer shot below 40% from the field, our record is 10-6, not bad but not at the top of the heap. In games where 111 played and Rafer shot 40% or better, our record is 12-2. To me, that's a pretty big difference. What it says is as long as 111 is on the court, we are going win roughly 70% of our games. But if Rafer shoots below 40%, we are only going to win roughly 60% of our games. And if he shoots over 40% and we have 111, we are virtually unstoppable.
You are ignoring the fact that these numbers are statistically insignificant. Also, Rafer does other things well when he doesn't shoot well.
