I dont know if this deserves a new thread but I was working on this most of the night so I figure it does. If not you know what to do to it. I had a hypothesis about Rafer. I believe that when Rafer shoots well we win games when he shoots poorly we lose. Plain and simple. I decided the best way to look at this was to calculate his crude (total) fg avgs and 3pt avgs in both wins and losses. What I arrived at was somewhat interesting. In wins Rafer shoots .3865 from the field (189/489) shoots .4016 from the 3pt line (100/249) In losses Rafer shoots .3591 from the field (121/337) shoots .3595 from the 3pt line 55/153) I am right now working on a masters in statistical related field and this simple stat in all honesty doesn't say a whole whole lot. I may later decide to test Rafer's shooting with an OR and check for confounders and effect modifiers. (Hell I bought Stata and SAS might as well use them for something worthwhile ) The one thing that it does show is in both wins and losses Rafer shoots a pretty decent percentage overall from the 3 pt line. What this really illustrates (at least to me) is that the point guard position in this offense must make a VERY high percentage for the Rockets to win games. Another stat on Rafer is that he is ranked 103/436 in most efficient player meaning he is in the top 25% efficient players in the league. This is an ok stat. However if we assume that the top five players play most of the game and there are 30 teams that means rafer ranks 103/150 which is ranked in the .6866 percentile. Thats pretty ugly.. Yet another interesting stat on Rafer is that according to the lenovo stat Rafer is the top player in Rockets game with an increase in points differential while he is in the game giving the team 28 more points when he is in the game then when he is not. What all of this shows (at least to me) is that Rafer has one of the toughest positions to play in the Rockets offense. He must take and make a very high percentage of threes (wide open yes but there is a reason you get three instead of two) and is very important on this team (keep in mind no back up point guard). For all the criticism he takes it should be pointed out how well he does overall and how important he is to the team (the lenovo stat). With that being said it very crucial the Rockets in the off season seek out another pt guard that shoots the three very well and can play stellar defense.
can you rack up the stats for all the other players on the team and see if there are any trends there
Rafer is basically our third option. With Shane sometimes shying away from shooting, Chuck being a below average offensive player, and teams doubling Yao and T-mac, he is probably the most important player on offense outside of 111. I just think that when he plays well, the team wins.
You can always check each players page on ESPN.com, they have splits which include performance in Ws and Ls
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/teams/stats?team=hou&sort=pts&order=true&avg=pg&split=51 Check out Mcgrady's % win vs lost........thats a very telling stat
thanx for the takin the time for doing this... me and my cousin discussed this because to us it also seems that evertime rafers shoots the three ball well we win... expecially agianst the big teams...
There is no question that playing the PG spot on the Rockets, one has to hit 3ptrs. Tmac sets things up in the half court. The PG has has to hit the 3pt shot. By default Rafer is the 3rd scorer on this team because NO ONE else other than Tmac can dribble-drive to the basket. The problem is Rafer is TERRIBLE in the midrange game. And it's even worse when you consider he shies away from contact and thus does not get to the FT line. Think about all of those tear-drop shots that make you cry. Rafer is fine when he gets passes and is a stand-still 3pt shooter. But any time he is "on the move" on his shots, he isn't very good. To get the most out of Rafer, his minutes have to be reduced by having a decent backup or starting PG added to this team. And Rafer needs to NOT be the default 3rd scorer which means he will only take the stand still jumpers that are effective for him and not the drives that are disasters.
Hey, how much was a personal version of SAS cost? Are there anyway to get it without an arm and a leg? Also have you had any experience using this free-ware http://www.r-project.org/ Completely off topic but somethng what I wanted to ask.
Although Rafer is clearly not the answer this team needs at the PG position, he's just about the most important role player on this team simply because of how important his position is to overall team success, not to mention the fact that we have no backup PG for him (Head is really a SG stuck in a PG's body), which makes him that much more important to team success. We will see how he performs in the playoffs, but either way we MUST address the glaring need we have at the PG position in this upcoming off season.
Besides Rafer, we also need Shane to step up more...that would help loads. Besides the sweet rainbow shot, I've noticed he has a good post-up game, a sweet baby hook and some great moves. (remember how he owned Lebron?). In fact, I'm pretty sure if he really wanted to, Shane could be at least a 16-18 PPG player.
i agree. Shane disappears in the big games as much as Alston...I know Shane wants to get his teammates involved more than anyone else on the court, but he needs to be more agressive sometimes.
check our yaos... thats even uglier he shoots 43% in losses and is nearly 4 points off his season average in points whereas mcgrady is only .4 off. So if yao is below 50 % shooting we might lose if he is above we have a much greater chance of winning.
